Effective Odds:NLHE...3Bet Semi-Bluffing?

You flop a king high flush draw and semi-bluff it. An opponent behind you raises. With his raise the pot is now offering you pot odds of 2.5 to 1. Do you: 1. Call, 2. RAISE, or 3. Fold.

1) Call: I have been advised to only calculate draws in NLHE as "one card to come" (unless you'll be all-in). I think we'd be better off doing that against aggro opponents but using our odds through the river against passive players or guys who'll take one shot and back off. Right?

2) RAISE: I started off playing limit where I'd 3bet here near 100%. I know that's probably too often for a big bet game... under what conditions would it be viable to re-raise here? How much?

3) Fold: I hate to think of this as an option. I like to take shots at pots and semi-bluff. So, I think folding here is bad for my image and gives away too much information. Plus, I want to play my draws like I play made hands. Right? But, we might not be drawing to the nuts, our opponent might be semi-bluffing his nut draw, and we might not get payed off when we hit. Help?

Double-A feels like a lost kitten out in the snow... referring to himself in the third person... with miles to go before he sleeps...

Hey Double-A, you did a great job on explaining my options except I don't know if this is a cash game or tourney. Although, I agree with you folding here would be a terrible play. But also how deep are you're stacks compared to the pot in this situation and how much information do you have on you're opponent so far? If this was a cash game and both of you're stacks are deep I would call for sure because of you're implied odds. Also, if you think you're chances are good that you're opponent will fold to you're 3bet then it would not be a bad move after all... IF you have position on you're opponent and he's a passive opponent and you're almost certainly sure he will check the turn if you raise... Then you can get a free card on the turn or try to bluff depending on you're chances again that you're opponent will fold... If he's a calling station forget about everything and just call... Hope to hit you're hand and make the most of it...

The hand that got me thinking was from a $100 BI cash game. I had only been at the table for a few hands so, very little info on the opposition, I had around $100, and Villain had me covered w/ $130-150ish. I had limped in w/ KJs from MP and my opponent was CU (I think). Anyway, I was OOP.

I'd still be interested in other similar situations. Tournaments or whatever. Just looking for a general approach...

Well I would call based on the implied odds... His raise probably represents top pair good kicker or even maybe a set... But based on him having position on you and you not knowing his style of play it would probably be best to just call and see the turn and go from there....

Based on your lack of table history and it being a cash game, I would probably call. It could have easily been a positional raise.

If I missed, I would probably check and raise the white flag and live to fight another day.

In a tournament, I would probably fold if I had anything less than 20BB behind me- that's just a general rule and my style, but I don't like chasing without a nice stack behind me.

How deep is the effective stack and what's the pot after his raise?

... and what's his range?

So, the "plan" is to call our opponents re-raise on the flop and: 1) Check/fold when we miss 2) Check/raise when we hit. Right?

I see why this could work against an unknown opponent. If he's an aggressive player then he'll bet the turn. We'll check/fold when we miss (losing our flop call) but winning the pot will make up for that when we hit (and check raise him).

If he's a passive player he might check the turn (or bet small). When we miss, we'll get a free card or call a smallish bet (with odds) to see our draw through. When we hit, we'll screw up and give him a chance to improve (maybe not a big one though) but most of the time we'll get the pot (with our flush) and maybe pick up a missed bet on the river.

Right?

My "problem" with this line of thought (and the reason I want to 3bet) is that it is so obvious. Our bet/call on the flop just screams "draw". I fear most opponents will clam up when we hit our flush on the turn and bet big when we miss. So, if the plan is check/raise or check/fold the turn then we wind up giving a free card or check/raising our opponents who semi-bluffed their nut flush draws.

I was trying to veer away from specifics because my notes on the hand that got me thinking are a little shaky. As far as I can tell...

I limped with KsJs behind another limper and CU limps as well. Flop($9) comes Qh8s3s. Check, check and I bet $6. CU raises to $20. Fold, fold to me.

The pot is $35. CU probably has $108-128 and I have $90.

Villains range: I'm guessing 33, 88, QT, QJ, AXs, maybe KQ? 99? T9s?

The specifics are make-or-break for these situations, is why I'm asking.

I think 3-bet shoving will often be the best play here. In position, with deeper stacks and in position, things are different.

Your range versus the stronger part of his (the one we can't reasonably assume he's going to fold 100% of the time) has about 40% equity. With that in mind, it's enough if he even occasionally folds a hand like QT to a shove or if he can be bluffing.

That said, things don't look great for you. He raised with two people left to act behind him and that's usually a sign of strength, but not necessarily so. If I believe my opponent to the right can be stabbing at the pot when checked to, I will happily raise him and isolate in a 4-way pot since it's likely to be immediately profitable AND I can get the remaining two players to play honestly. Very few (if anyone) will 3-bet bluff once the action has been bet, raise before the action is on them. It's just too risky. Not only that, but they will probably fold some reasonably strong hands. If I were the BB here, I would probably ditch hands like QJ to a bet and a raise in front of me.

But if he "never" raises the flop with anything but a really strong hand (or the nut flush draw, say) then shoving becomes a much less attractive option and you should probably call the turn and give up unimproved.

That's why you have to mix up you're play and sometimes 3bet in this situation... And also slow play some big hands like if you had a draw and then your opponents won't be to sure if you're drawing or slow playing a big hand... But I would recommend making moves like those after you are aware of the type of players you're playing and you're table image.. You don't want to get caught bluffing by a calling station who won't let go of top pair weak kicker....

Okay, I have an awesome head-cold, so it feels a little like my brain is floating in yoghurt. Anyway.

Since you tried to veer away from the specifics I'll try to give a more generic answer although I hinted at it in the previous post:

The dominant factor when I decide whether to call or re-raise with a flushdraw on the flop is stack sizes. This is hardly surprising since stack sizes are the dominant factor in everything I do.

After that, though, comes position. Out of position, I almost never like calling. If I call, it's essentially a crying call because I realize that my opponent's range is such that if he raises me, he has me in really bad shape and re-raising or shoving will only get more money in bad.

In position, I'm not a huge fan of the "wohoo, flush draw, allin" philosophy that many of the regulars I play seem to have adopted. When I have positional advantage I want to make sure I make the most of it. Getting it in on the flop means the hand ends there, not one or two streets later. That benefits my opponent. Whatever benefits my opponent is detrimental to me. That said, there are certainly times I'll shove with a flushdraw in position on the flop. It's just not quite as appealing as it is out of position.

The deeper the stack sizes, the less willing you should be to get it in with a flushdraw, obviously. But what also matters is that you get the last bet. This is overlooked by many, even by many otherwise solid players. Your hand is an awesome semibluff. In order to leverage it completely, you need to be the one who shoves and your shove has to be such that it

1) can work as a bluff (i.e. not shove your remaining $10 into a $160 pot), and
2) Isn't so big of a raise that the cost of the bluff makes it unprofitable.

Here, you're borderline but (probably) still profitable. If the effective stack had been $130 or so, I'd have been very weary of shoving. When called, you will usually (since you don't have the nut flush draw) be only around 35% to win on average, assuming his calling range doesn't include anything worse than what you have.

Assuming you started with 100BB: When called, you will lose 0.35*(100+6+4) - 0.65*(-93) = 38.5 - 60.45 = -$22.

If there's $35 in the pot, your bluff needs to work 22/35 ~ 63% of the time. NOT TRUE SEE EDIT. In other words, he needs to have something less than a set/two pair/TPTK that he can't let go about 2/3rds of the time. This is a little much to ask for, and the "problem" in this hand is that there was no raise preflop so the stack-to-pot ratio is high. Still, if you think his range is wide enough to include other things than sets (e.g. straight draws, nines, QJ, A8, AJ taking a stab, etc) then it's usually pretty easy to get enough combos to make it profitable, even this "deep." Only 9 combos of sets, after all.





Edit: Yeah, so, I have a cold. And I'm sitting here after I posted that thinking "22 over 35. That seemed easy. Is it really that easy? Why did I think it was 22/35?"

And then I thought to myself, "no, that's not true at all." and then I wrote down the actual formula for EV and what we get is this:

If he calls our shove X% of the time, then we will lose $22*X%, and we will therefore pick up the dead money (1-X)%*35$.

Our breakeven point is therefore -22x + (1 - x)*35 = 0

...

...

x = 61%.

I.e. he only needs to fold 39% of the time for us to break-even. I thought 63% sounded high.

End edit. Let me know if I did this wrong, too; hopefully my head will be back to normal in the morning. I'm going to bed.

Wow, thanks for the help guys!

Your responses really helped clear up some confusion. Although I may have some more questions, I think I'll be able to navigate my options with a little more confidence.

Thanks!

FP- chicken noodle soup, vitamin c, and zinc (nasal spray)

Funny, I sh#t away a stack this morning 3bet semi-bluffing a flush draw...

BUT this time I knew what I did wrong... having little fold equity, non-nut draw, and over betting (ignoring stack/pot ratio and betting so much that the bluff would have to succeed way to often).

See, I'm learning