Drawing to the nuts

If we're sure villain has an overpair he's not folding on the flop, and we have an OESD, we call, but if the turn is a brick, and villain is still betting strong, this is usually a fold now right?

I've been thinking about the maths of it, and unless we're IP and can get a reraise in on the river if we hit on the river, then it's a bad turn call in the long term imo, because we're not able to realise the implied odds necessary to make this a good call.

I will follow up later with the maths if I can get it to make some sense!

This is now turning into another basic maths post, but this time about calling with draws (implied odds). I would appreciate people looking it over in case I've made some fundamental error(s).

Example hand:-

6max 100nl - effective stacks $100

UTG opens to $4, MP calls, fold, Hero (BTN) calls with 9hTh, fold, fold.

POT ~ $12

Flop: 7c8s3d

UTG bets $8, MP folds, Hero ?

Our read on UTG is that he has an overpair and flop fold equity = 0. Should we call?


On the Flop

We will hit one of our 8 outs on the turn 8 out of 47 (I know we could argue 45 since he has AA/KK/QQ but for simplicity...), or 17% of he time. If we make the call on the flop we are calling $8 to win $20, or 40%. If there was no more money behind we have to fold. However, there are 2 more streets and there is money behind. So the question is, given that we hit one of our outs on the turn how much more money do we have to extract by the river in order to make our flop call profitable in the long run?

We are calling $8 with a 17% chance to hit the nuts, so we need to win at least $47 (8/0.17) at the end of the hand (another $27), to be BE on our call. Is this likely? Yes. So we make the call.


On the Turn

Pot = $28

Board = 7c8s3d 2h

BRICK

UTG bets $21, Hero ?

We will still hit one of our 8 outs approximately 17% of the time on the river. If we make the call on the turn we are calling $21 to win $49, or 43%. If there was no more money behind, we have to fold. However, there is one more street of money behind. So now the question is, given that we hit one of our outs on the river how much more money do we have to extract on the river in order to make our turn call profitable in the long run?

We are calling $21 with a 17% chance to hit the nuts, so we need to win at least $124 (21/0.17) at the end of the hand (another $75), to be BE on our call. Is this likely? Well...

If we call, the pot on the river will be $70, so we would have to be certain that we could extract an overpot size bet on the river. If villain is likely to bet and we reraise in position, we may get it. If we know villain is likely to pot control check and fold to an overbet, then we can't make the turn call and must fold.

So in general calling the flop is always good, but folding to a brick on the turn is often the correct play, especially if we're OOP, and also depending on villain's tendencies with regard to river betting. A FD is probably even more of a clear fold on the Turn considering how obvious they are when they come in.

good post.

drawing out of position sucks.

I'd call the turn if there was a flush draw on the flop and we can be reasonably sure he'd fold if we bluff the river. Would also call if we hit a T or 9 on turn.

Interesting turn cards are 8, 7, A.

Hmmm... never thought of adding up the bets... given we started with $100 effective, he's only got $67 left by the river!!! lol

So our turn call was bad.

Big time. I've been thinking for a while that worse players than me are making bad calls, but I've never put any numbers to it until now.

I like it... that gives us more outs in effect. We bluff when the flush comes and bet/raise when our actual draw comes in.

Incidentally I'd call the flop with a gutshot to the nuts, especially if it can become a double-gutter on the turn or BD flush draw (J9dd, J9ss, J9cc or 54).

Yes, I've got to say that I'm now calling more with this kind of thing, it's the best way to avoid fit n fold and there are still plenty of ways you can win the pot, but it just helps so much if you have some hand equity too.

So basically, given the above, and the betting patterns, it's never correct to call the turn if you know the only way to win is by getting there (i.e. fold equity = 0). UNLESS, you are deep. At least 150bb deep looking at the above.

I'm going to call this The Cafeman Theorem

This was some very helpful info (as usual); and good questions posed;

I am in the processs of mercilessly evaluating my post-flop game and so this is a very good thread, also because I know that drawing OESD or FD's can be of great profit, or absolutley the wrong play, it just depends;

Completely agree w/ you all about folding the turn in the specific situation you provided.

I'll pose a few situations or list HH in my cash game thread that further incoperates the "Cafeman Theorem" ideas, as I know that drawing dead and calling a c/bet from a villain on a blank turn is probably wrong most of the time. . .

Its tempting to continue a draw into the river if we're confident the villain has also blanked the board but may very well has an overcard like Kx or Ax. . . their outs are of significance too. . .

I've been working on this with my post flop outside straight and flush draws. Using the 4X and 2X rules for simplicity. It's the betting of these hands that give me problems maybe I'll pull the straight on the turn so how much should I lean on the villain in position before the turn? Should I just check out of position? now he's bet 1/2 pot but I'm not commited (less than 10% my chip stack) so I should lay down because he's in for 15% of his and looks commited. And on and on....
This thread should go a long way towards helping me figure out the best way to approach these hands.

I like a raise on the flop and try to get a free card on the river. If he re raises or bets into you on the turn at least you know your probably dominated. I also like to flat call in position becuase you have good implied odds if you hit your straight. I guess it depends on your opponent. If your almost certain your opponent has a over pair and has no fold equity on the flop I would just stick to basic pot odds and fold for the $4 loss.

If you raise the flop, bet the turn, this isn't limit.