Double Belly Buster !

They are a bit harder for other players to spot, but I wouldn't say they hit any more often. Maybe it's just that I don't see them often enough to have enough to think back on. One thing to watch out for is when you have a belly buster there's often a made straight or higher straight draw. For example - you have 8T and the board is 69Q. If a J comes you're crushed by KT. With a 69QK there could be a made nut straight already out there and the best you can hope for is a tie.

TJ is a bit hard to use as an example because it always has the nut flush if there's no T or J on the board.

I see what you´re getting at, but I think that the same goes for open-ended straightdraws like 6-9 on a 782-flop

8 outs is 8 outs no matter how it comes..the only variable i see is how many people were dealt in preflop..that would be the only thing that could change the drawing odds...

How well your semi-bluff bet works is totally game dependent. So this is not something you want to do in most limit games, whereas in NL, you can often chase a villain away if he missed the flop. But that becomes read dependent.

And then there is the positional dependency.

In almost all limit games AK will likely hang till he's dead. In low buy in NL games, the AK is still likely to hang till he's dead. In higher buy-in games you are more likely to find folks who at least see the potential death card, and may be able to muck TPTK, so you would want a rainbow board for a snuggier feeling. But even there many will hang till they're dead.

Try figuring in how many will even see the potential death card (9). I'll guestimate 30% will see that a 9 is deadly. Means I think 70% will not even see that and are much more likely to stack with TPTK.