Does my graph seem okay?

OhYeah229

OhYeah229

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This has been my first year playing poker and I am not sure weather or not I should be happy with my results. This is my 4NL graph. I was most successful in cash game. I dabbled in mtts with some success but they bore me and i lost $70 playing Hyper Turbo HUSNG so i quit those.I figure Ill stick tho CG for a while. First let me explain why the graph changes so drastically in a couple of spots. Up to 2k hands I was a fish, or a worse fish than now. I played drunk a lot and played outside of my limits. Then I got serious and started reading and studying. I started playing aggressively and it was profitable, but around 12k hands I noticed that these donks would call me down with mid pair so my 2nd and 3rd barrels were not going to work so I focused on winning at showdown. This explains why the red and blue lines changed directions. I guess my main question here is, is this a good looking start? I feel that I have been breaking even for the last months when I should be moving up. My other question is why is there such a difference in the green line and blue line and is this normal?
 

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DaReKa

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Well, technically, that's not just your 4NL graph since it includes the early hands where you played outside your limits, etc. You can use filters so that it will show only 4NL hands if you want. I would advise that you not get too caught up over results for a while, and just focus on learning. Using HEM effectively will be a big help. And knowing which stats to add to your HUD will be huge at 4NL. 90%+ of your opponents will be very exploitable - you just need the right HUD to be able to make solid plays on them. Sample size is important to pay attention to when you do this.

If you are still in the positive, you should be happy. If you look up your opponents at 4NL on Poker Table Ratings, you will rarely ever find a winning player, and will see plenty that have lost thousands.
 
Matt Vaughan

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Blue line = winnings from showdowns
Red line = winnings from non-showdowns
Green line = total winnings

Your red-line is below zero, which is why your green line is lower than your blue line. This is normal for the vast majority of winning players.
 
OhYeah229

OhYeah229

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Thanks for the replies guys! My goal for the next year is to move up to 25NL. This is 2 limits higher so I don't think it is an unrealistic goal. What do you think? Also if I am a winning player at that limit, what would an hourly rate probably be? I really think if I keep studying like I have been I can beat that these limits.
 
cardsking

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It looks great actually :) keep it up and keep improving and better yourself

and Oh yeah , nice picture :)
 
DaReKa

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Thanks for the replies guys! My goal for the next year is to move up to 25NL. This is 2 limits higher so I don't think it is an unrealistic goal. What do you think? Also if I am a winning player at that limit, what would an hourly rate probably be? I really think if I keep studying like I have been I can beat that these limits.
I would advise you put in at least 50k hands into your current limit, before you decide to move up. You can aggressively move up with just 20 buy ins for a limit if you want, but transitioning through limits is difficult the first time and will be a lot more difficult if a short bankroll is weighing on your mind. So I would just be patient and make sure you have a really solid game at 4NL before moving up.

Hourly win rate depends on a lot more than just being a winning player. If you can 12 table and still win more than 5bb/100, then your hourly will be pretty good. If you can only manage 4 tables at that winrate, then obviously it'd be 1/3 of that. So just take your winrate (bb/100) and how many hands you can play in an hour and multiply.

Say you play 1k hands in an hour and win 10bb/100. You would win a total of 100bb in one hour, which at .25c bb would be $25. Keep in mind though that playing 1k hands in an hour, winning at that high of a rate, and even reaching 25NL in the time period you're planning are pretty unrealistic goals, so just don't get ahead of yourself too much.
 
John A

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It's funny, but I just made a video kind of on this subject since I've played a lot of 50NL lately. I think focusing on showdown winnings is important, but it's all about who you target and the kinds of plays that you make. You can't just fire, fire and expect to be profitable and have a good red line. I slightly under 0 to slightly over 0 at these kinds of stakes is ideal.

I'll post the video up on here somewhere, but it's about applying max pressure to your opponents in position and how to increase your red line.
 
LuckyChippy

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wgNpILX.jpg
 
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twohaha

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Can't really see well well, but it looks like you've gone from -40$ to 20$, after studying the game. Having some profit is always good, means that you are doing the right things, keep on playing and learning :)
 
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DunningKruger

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It's funny, but I just made a video kind of on this subject since I've played a lot of 50NL lately. I think focusing on showdown winnings is important, but it's all about who you target and the kinds of plays that you make. You can't just fire, fire and expect to be profitable and have a good red line. I slightly under 0 to slightly over 0 at these kinds of stakes is ideal.

I'll post the video up on here somewhere, but it's about applying max pressure to your opponents in position and how to increase your red line.

The last time I played 50NL I bluff jammed a 58835 board with Q6 and got tank called by pocket 2s (scratched my head while I dragged the pot). But yeah the players at your table are going to decide how much of your earnings are at showdown and how much are won prior. Some people just really make it hard to keep your non showdown winnings robusto.

Ah well. Money's money.
 
abzdolc

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we hope, month later, u will show better picture!
 
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Frankie6636

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I think it is a fine graph. Just keep on grinding and I am sure it will get better. I think it is almost as good as mine.
 
DonV73

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Personally I think all other lines besided the green one, are overrated. Ppl pay way too much attention to it. In the end, what you want is the green line to be positive and going up. Yours is, so you should be happy. I wish my green line looked like that after playing poker just 1 year :p
 
OhYeah229

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Sorry I've been gone so long (I took an almost 2 month break) but I've been on the grind again for the last 2 weeks. Tonight I gained the bank roll to move up in limits to 10nl. I;ll post my graph soon but what I want t know is how different are the limits? Will my 9bb/100 win rate change much and what should I expect?
 
OhYeah229

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We could talk strategy sometime not that im the best to give advice but it would be nice to build a web of poker player to share ideas!
 
Aces2w1n

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It's not time to really get excited because the time you do and get carried away you'll be shaking your head wondering where it all went wrong before you know it.

Take on Dareka's advice before it's too late and keep those winnings (50k hands is a good start (START) and remember where your at, the bottom and keep playing/grinding and hopefully you develop your skills...It's all about patience and learning one self winning/losing patterns and build on that before moving up. Sometimes people play their worst poker when their winning, so don't get sloppy :)

I use to put graphs up early on in my learning and boast bout winning with only a couple thousand, It's only now that I see how naïve I was and I guess that's just a maturity phase for being a poker player.
 
OhYeah229

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So what might be a sustainable win rate?
 
OhYeah229

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So I tool a break from poker for a few months but im back now!!!. I recently moved up a limit so things are going good!. At the moment I have been running bad but playing good poker in my opinion. Im not worried about it because I know it will even out! My new goal is to move up 2 limits with in the year and play at least 2k hands per day so wish me luck!!!
 

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Aces2w1n

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Just keep working hard at your game :)

Play to your limit and if your losing or not moving upwards don't be afraid to move down a limit. It's a marathon not a race.
 
OhYeah229

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been putting in about 3k hands a day and man ive had some swings lol. Plan on moving up in about 2 months though if i continue to do well. only $80 away!
 
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