Does anyone make money at this?

Hi,

After two/three weeks of playing the tightest play I've ever played, and still getting beat and losing money hand over fist, I came to wonder... Does ANYONE actually make money at this in low-limit no-fold-em-hold-em anymore? ie: 1/2, 3/6, 5/10?
I follow the starting hands laid out below, TO THE LETTER...
Group 1 Hands (Play in ANY Position)
Pairs AA, KK, QQ, JJ, TT, 99
Suited Ax suited, KQs, KJs, KTs, QJs, JTs, T9s
Unsuited AK, AQ
Group 2 Hands (Play in Middle/Late Position)
Pairs Any
Suited Ax suited, Kx suited, QJs, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s
Unsuited AK-AT, KQ, KJ, QJ, JT, T9
Group 3 Hands (LATE Position ONLY - GO if low betting on u/s)
Pairs Any
Suited Ax suited, JTs, J9s, T9s, T8s, 98s, 97s, 87s, 86s, 76s, 75s, 65s, 64s, 54s, 53s, 43s
Unsuited AK-A9, KQ-KT, QJ, QT, JT, J9, T9, T8, 98, 97, 87, 86, 76, 75

Now, the thing is, any action pre-flop, and the lower of the group 3 hands I ditch straightaway. If I don't make a reasonable hand (ie: Trips from a PP, or at least two pair) I ditch. Only going with open-ended str8's, four parts of a flush (unless I've got the A of a three-parter, in which case I'll only got to the turn and if it improves, continue, if not ditch).
Have I got complacent? Three months ago, I was winning. Regularly. Making money, daily, on 1/2, 2/4.
Then, a few weeks ago, it all seemed to go pear shaped. I know I myself started getting sloppy and discipline was in question, so I don't dispute the money I lost then. But now I'm back and following the above very tightly and still losing... lots... just can't seem to make headway.
Am I now playing too low for the level of tight-ness I'm playing? Where there is little/no respect for the money and people go with no matter what they have and seem to win. I know people talk about the long-term aspects of these peoples' play, but these people rarely seem to be at a table long enough to allow comeback these days - either that or they've stolen my whole roll from their antics.
I know I have to be patient... and over time it'll win out... but lately I've started to doubt this when after several hours at a table, I've either made 10 bucks, or lost $200... yet my play is tight and consistent during these times. Maybe I just need some re-assurance. I've been told my play is pretty solid... am I just on a bad run? Or do I need to progress to the higher tables where there's respect for good play?

Thank you in advance

post a couple HHs' in Hand analysis thread

Well, there is absolutely loads there to go on:-

Very important to know whether this is limit or NL, lets assume NL for starters at least :-

Your obsession with hand charts, position, and post flop rules is way way to regimented to ever make any money on a consistant basis in NL (note I quote from above 'tightest play I've ever played','I follow them....TO THE LETTER', 'tight and consistent'). Any decent player will walk all over you. Variation is so important, and that can only ever be done well with lots of experience. So many players try to vary their game and just lose money faster. Experience is everything.

Moving up is seriously not an option. This would be incrediably bad BRM. It is also a myth that standards improve at higher levels. They dont. The bad beats will just hurt more, and you will be become frustrated easier.

Also the 'system' you describe doesnt touch upon how you are valuing these hands. This trips/2 pr/flush draw stuff doesnt really tell us enough about what stage you are at regards odds and valuation. How much are you betting/calling/raising on these draws (HHs). Better to win with bottom pair when given the value (or dictating the value), than it is to lose with trips or AA when you arent.

The problem you describe isnt uncommon, so dont become disconcerted. Many players come and go within a few months. There isnt easy money to be made. There never has been. Everyone plays to make money, so what really is giving you an edge to get a long term sustainable positive hourly rate? Playing the way you describe will not.

The best advice you will ever receive (which you will almost inevitably ignore) is to move down and not up. BRM is not just about managing your finances, it fundamentily affects the way all people play. Playing above your bankroll will inevitable and understandable lead to way too tight play. Your frustrations also tell me that a move down is right. Players very rarely get frustrated if they play at the correct level for their BR.

Anyway, good luck to you.

My only input is that, that is a lot of hands to play for being super tight.

Wow those two comments sum it up well. BRM is the best advice that could be given.

Welly given a BR of say 30 dollars to start what would be a good hourly return? Or better yet given a bank roll of X using 33% of X what return would be acceptable?

My thoughts exactly. In fact, I`m wondering if I`ve misunderstood something, because if this is the tightest you`ve ever played you must have been a maniac before.

Well with a stiff bankroll of $30, no flexibility, and wanting to protect yourself from going broke on that $30, you need to be playing the .05 / .10 limits or if you play sit and go's, $1 buy in ones.

I'm more of a SNG guy, so with a $30 roll I would be playing 2-4 tables at a time, and getting a 10-20% ROI over longterm.

If that is the case, then 15% ROI on 4 tables at a time, would be ~ 60 cents per set. Assuming they avg out to 45 mins a table and you rotate in new tables as you get knocked out/finish, then that is an hourly rate of 80 cents an hour.

So for sit and go's
L(imit) = BR(bankroll)/30
T(tables/hour) = # of tables at once * (60/avg time to play a table)
HR (hourly rate) = T * L * ROI


So for a larger bankroll, of lets say, $300


L = 300/30 = 10
T = 4 * (60/45) = 5 1/3
HR = 5 1/3 * 10 * .15 = $8 an hour

The best way to find avg time per table is to play 100 games and avg it out. ROI is only determined by how you play. I think 15% is a fairly realistic # to shoot at for longterm goals on SNG's but maybe yours is 10% or 20%

HR = T * L * ROI

This formula is good for an approximation, obviously there are many factors, and it can depend on what sites you play, etc.

I have played 10 tables at once at the $10 limit but I found the stress factor + not being able to use the same level of finesse when it comes to stealing/timing bets/raises killed my ROI to the point that I was more profitable 3-4 tabling.

Sorry for the hijack, as you may not even do sit and go's, but I figured I would speak on what I know.

If you get a little time, read my post here, which is a little more detailed on BRM :-

Bankroll Management

After reading it hopefully you will conclude that the '33% of X' is too high. If you dont, then I'm telling you it is.

As far as ROI% goes, I think 7% is good for a long-term data set. 10% would be very good. This may not seem alot, especially not compared to MTTs, however it is realistic for cash games. Play a few million hands and once the swings and beats have evened out, a good player can make this sort of margin. Obviously the higher your level the more this will translate to in ROI$.

For that reason, although you should definately record your ROI%, you should only really ever worry about your hourly rate.

I have a very simple Excel spreadsheet, which calculates my cumulative hourly rate for the month. Start a new sheet for each month, and spend a little time each week analysing the data. It's a long process building your hourly rate, so you need to have very good patience and be a very focused individual. If you dream of a big win almost overnight then cash tables arent for you.

Good Luck.

Sounds like a good Idea, How are the columns set up. Would you share please. I probably won't be playing until next month. Stupidly went to higher buy in . Got kicked ouot Second hand Blew the bank roll. AA beaten by AK off (hit the str8)

Well I suppose there must be someone - whoever's taking your chips presumbably!

I don't play limit much, but it's very easy to make money at low-limit no-limit.

My advice on hand selection: stop playing 7-5 offsuit. Even from a late position!

Getting hold of a program like Poker Tracker would also be a good move. It'll help you analyse where you won or lost money, and allow you to keep track of the % of hands you're playing. This should be <20%. From your list it sounds like you'd be playing a lot more.

Basically there are 9 columns

A) Date
B) Session Length (mins)
C) Cumulative Session Length (mins)
D) No. of tables <--- not used for any calc, but used for analysis
E) Game <--- eg NLHE, PLO8 <-----just used for analysis
F) Buy-in <---- not used for any calc, but used for analysis
G) Profit/Loss <--- note what you left each table with, work out total profit/loss for session and enter here
H) Cumulative Profit/Loss
I) Cumulative Hourly rate (columnH/(columnC/60))

So at end of session I enter in columns A,B,D,E,F, and G


For the analysis (about once a week) I sort the data (data menu - sort) into which groups I want to analyse. And then wrap things up properly at end of month with a few more spreadsheets.

It's completely painless once your into a routine