Differentiation Practise 2: Flopping a set

Villain in this hand is capable of making real laydowns if he thinks he's beat and respects you as a thinking player.

Limit hold 'em, full table. You have 8-8 on the button. The TAG is first in to raise, and you make it three bets to go. The big blind calls. TAG caps it, and you and the big blind call.

The flop comes T-8-4, two hearts. Big blind checks, TAG bets, you raise. The big blind folds, TAG 3-bets. You call. 9 big bets.

The turn is another T (non heart). TAG bets and you raise. TAG hesitates and makes it three bets to go again. 14 big bets in the pot.

Question: Do you cap the turn or do you wait to pop the river? Why?

Hm. I honestly don't know if his betting and raising would be reasonable for, say, two overcard hearts, because I'm not familiar enough with limit. If you considered this a likely hand, I'd say you should get more chips out of him while you can in case he doesn't hit the river. If he has a T I'm thinking you'd want to get these extra chips in too, since he probably thinks his hand is best anyway at this point, but might be scared himself if he doesn't have the draw and a third heart hits the river. And if a heart doesn't hit, I figure he still ought to think his hand is best at that point.

Sorry if this is wrong/stupid, I really don't know limit, but at least I tried

What a coincidence (kind of). I had better abstain from this one. Here's why:

STAGE #494407943: HOLDEM NORMAL $0.50/$1 - 2006-11-16 19:59:36 (ET)
Table: QUINCE AVE (Real Money) Seat #4 is the dealer
Seat 4 - AATEAM ($43.13 in chips)
Seat 5 - DOCFOXX1 ($4.90 in chips)
Seat 6 - RNZAG24 ($11.70 in chips)
Seat 7 - SCRAPPDADDY ($14.95 in chips)
Seat 8 - FLOPTHISAAK ($198.47 in chips)
Seat 9 - PDSTICKER ($15.05 in chips)
Seat 1 - ROYIRVIN ($13.45 in chips)
Seat 2 - BAMBAM7171 ($9.25 in chips)
Seat 3 - U_GOT_SERVED ($3.70 in chips)
DOCFOXX1 - Posts small blind $0.25
RNZAG24 - Posts big blind $0.50
FLOPTHISAAK - Posts $0.50
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to PDSTICKER [5h 5c]
SCRAPPDADDY - Calls $0.50
FLOPTHISAAK - Checks
PDSTICKER - Calls $0.50
ROYIRVIN - Folds
BAMBAM7171 - Calls $0.50
U_GOT_SERVED - Folds
AATEAM - Folds
DOCFOXX1 - Calls $0.25
RNZAG24 - Checks
*** FLOP *** [10d 9h 5d]
DOCFOXX1 - Checks
RNZAG24 - Checks
SCRAPPDADDY - Checks
FLOPTHISAAK - Checks
PDSTICKER - Bets $0.50
BAMBAM7171 - Calls $0.50
DOCFOXX1 - Folds
RNZAG24 - Raises $1 to $1
SCRAPPDADDY - Folds
FLOPTHISAAK - Folds
PDSTICKER - Raises $1 to $1.50
BAMBAM7171 - Folds
RNZAG24 - Raises $1 to $2
PDSTICKER - Calls $0.50
*** TURN *** [10d 9h 5d] 9♣
RNZAG24 - Bets $1
PDSTICKER - Raises $2 to $2
RNZAG24 - Raises $2 to $3
PDSTICKER - Calls $1
*** RIVER *** [10d 9h 5d 9c] 6♣
RNZAG24 - Bets $1
PDSTICKER - Calls $1
*** SHOW DOWN ***
RNZAG24 - Shows [10h 10s] (Full house, tens full of nines)
PDSTICKER - Mucks
RNZAG24 Collects $14.75 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($15.50) | Rake ($0.75)
Board [10d 9h 5d 9c 6c]
Seat 1: ROYIRVIN Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: BAMBAM7171 Folded on the FLOP
Seat 3: U_GOT_SERVED Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 4: AATEAM (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: DOCFOXX1 (small blind) Folded on the FLOP
Seat 6: RNZAG24 (big blind) won Total ($14.75) HI$14.75) with Full house, tens full of nines [10h 10s - P:10s,P:10h,B:10d,B:9h,B:9c]
Seat 7: SCRAPPDADDY Folded on the FLOP
Seat 8: FLOPTHISAAK Folded on the FLOP
Seat 9: PDSTICKER HI: [Mucked] [5h 5c]

(The action he took that more than anything else defines his hand is that he capped preflop out of position against a player that he has some respect for. His range is tiny.)

Villain saw you re-raise pre-flop and puts you on a big pair, rather than a Ten. That's why he 3-bets on the turn with his Aces, putting you on KK-JJ. (Of course it's possible he has TT but that's unlikely enough to pay it off.)

I would re-raise here on the turn. If you just call, you'll probably get one more bet out of him when he leads on the river, but he'll probably fold if you raise the river. If you cap it here, he'll probably call then check-call another bet on the river.

I'd say villain is AA. I'd cap here instead of waiting for the turn. Like Bombjack said he'll more than likely check-call the river, so betting now gets an extra bet in that you wont get by waiting for the river.

See bold.

You wait to pop the river. It is unlikely that whatever comes on the flop can beat you. He obviously has two pair or a flush draw. If his hand improved on the river, he'll come firing. Jam the pot and reap the rewards.

I doubt if you would be able to get more than one bet out of him on the river unless he has you beat, so you should go ahead and raise now to get the extra bet. He either has an over pair (AA, KK) or AK hearts. 10s doesn't seem likely but if does have them you are just going to have to pay him off. Raise now, and bet the river, I think 2 bets is the most you are going to get out of him no matter how you play it. If you don;t bet now, one bet is more likely, unless like I said you are beat. Of course it is possible that villan puts you on a flush draw against his over pair in which case you might get more out of him after the river if no heart comes and he puts you on a busted flush draw, but betting out now will not hurt that scenerio anyway so betting out now is still the correct play I think.

If we cap the turn and he folds (putting us squarely on trips), would this be good or bad for us?

Do you think that us capping really reveals our hand to him that clearly?

If he has big doubts about our strength, then why did he re-raise us on the turn rather than flat call? So, if his reading ability is as good as you think then he would only continue on if he had us beat, holding 10's. In this case maybe we want a fold because of this question: Are you good enough to laydown a boat on the river?

Let me rephrase the question:

If he flips his cards up, shows aces, and then folds, is that good or bad for us? I.e. do we want him to fold his aces?

He would have 4 outs to beat you - 2 aces and 2 tens, giving him 8% equity on the turn. With 15 bets in the pot, he'd be making a mistake by folding: it costs him 1 bet to win 15 (or 16 if you include implied odds) so he needs 6.7% equity to call.

If you're in his position though, do you call? If your opponent has a ten, you now only have 2 outs, so the situation changes to only having 4% equity. That would be a tough decision. I suppose you can factor in the possibility of a bluff for an extra few %.

i would just call the turn and call the river.
14 bets in the pot, and it would only cost 2 more bets to see.
i realy think he has a Ak so if thats true, you got him.
if you dont, its only 2 more bets.
thats how i would do it at a limit tables.