Crushing 2NL Crushed at 5NL

Few things first, I’ve seen some posts on this topic before, that are pretty old now, but if you want to merge this into an older thread then you can but i’d prefer it to be left here.
So, I started with $60 on stars, played 15k hands of 2NL and won at 18bb/100 and got my roll to $120. This was pretty easy after starting badly and running under ev and eventually ran slightly over ev and was playing great. This was 6-8 tabling.

I then moved up to 5NL 4-tabling with 24 buyins. I got crushed and lost 6 buyins. Every opponent I played in big pots seemed to come up with the nuts every time (obv they didn’t but always had a set/straight/flush/higher boat). So I moved down and played 7x2NL and 1x5NL table. As usual I was crushing the 2NL and losing badly at 5NL. Steadied my roll at around $85.
Decided to try and play through with 3x5NL and 5x”2NL but the same keeps happening, dropped back to $63 :O and then dropped down to strictly 2NL. Tried 24-tabling (slightly from tilt but I know I can do it as I used to last year) and won about 7 buyins back in an hour. My roll is now $75 and I don’t know what to do. I’m probably gonna continue to mass multitable 2NL and get back to around $150 and take another shot at 5NL. Is this sensible? I am planning on using a 20BI move up plan because I want to be at 25NL by Christmas. I just want to get past 5NL as I’ve never been able to beat it, but have been profitable at 10NL, 25NL, and 50NL in the past.
I know I should be playing my same game at 5NL as 2NL, but there is a big difference, much less spazzes.
Anyone got any good advice and tips to offer?

wait u can beat 10 25 and 50 but not 5? um variance?

Yeh I suppose. Maybe run good at the higher limits and bad at 5NL. Only played about 5k at 5NL since starting this and am -12 buyins

how many hands at the higher limits? I suggest making a video

Like 10k at each. I don't really have the facilities for making a video or I would. Really angry at dropping most of my profit from 2NL back at 5NL

Is this FR?

Weird... I find 5nl easiest, even easier than 2nl because there are so many weak passive players that fold to cbets all day.

Can you post stats?

6-max. Also, where you playing watchtowel? I play pokerstars and there aren't many passive players, my raises and c-bets get raised all day long

I play pokerstars 10nl and 25nl, but withdrew money so back to 5nl and I'm always surprised how passive it is by comparison. Although I play FR so might be different. Posting some stats might help us get a better idea

Off the top of my head:
VPIP: 21
PFR 15.8 (limping comes from flatting raises with small-med pairs IP and stuff like QTs when there are 2 or more limpers)

3-bet: 5% (way too low I think)

4-bet: 3.5%

WTSD%: 35

W$SD%: 45

River call Efficiency: 0.35 (weird as I only call with TPTK+ at the river when I think I'm good.)

Flop/Turn C-bet: 55/45 (was 75/60 for 2NL) bu c-bets get floated and raised much more often at 5NL

I don't think your 3 bet is too low. Unless you have the right read and right situation, stick to 3betting for value at 5nl.

Your WTSD is high, standard is about 26%. You're W$SD is low. You want that above 50% so more often than not you have the best hand at showdown.

Cbets are a little low, but ok. You just don't want flop 70+, turn 30. People will catch on and float you like spiderman in the Macy's day parade.

Yea I think you need to be more careful what cards you are taking to the river. When you play a little loose post-flop you will probably run into more of those big hands than if you got out earlier. I think 3bet is definitely not too low, it is fairly high. I thought like 3-3.5 was about standard. Although mine is 7 lol.

If you have PT3 I would filter the 3bets and 4bets by hands other than like QQ+ and AK to see if you are making a profit from them. I dont know 4bet seems very high...

Sample size is problem I would assume once you hit about 50,000 hands at a level you will have a good idea of what your winrate is. I have had 50,000 hands of break even maybe even more at levels that I am decent winner at.

There are just as many spazzes at 5nl.

You say you were profitable at 50nl and 25nl, how many hands are we talking here?

Variance is just so much bigger than most players realise. This guy on 2+2 did a 1 million hands in a month challenge. He's a winning reg. at higher stakes but did the challenge at 2nl. Look at his sessions, sometimes he ran 20 buyins under in a session. I don't mean to be a dick here, but maybe you aren't as profitable a player as you may think.

You also say you haven't played that many hands at $5nl. Are you relying on opponents stats such as fold to 3bet over statistically insignificant sample sizes? The only reasonably reliable stats over anything less than a four digit sample size are things like VPIP and PFR.

*EDIT: 10K hands is literally nothing.

The above shows why you should never play a lot of hands at 5NL - $2.1k winnings, $1.8k rake paid.

Yes obviously I'm not as good as the high stakes player in the challenge, but I'm pretty confident I can beat 2NL comfortably. I didn't know that stats like F3bet and FvCbet is not reliable vs an opponent with around 200 hands, so I'll rely on that less

Sounds like you might be relying on stats in general a bit too much - even at 25NL I don't think I looked at FvCbet apart from against regs so I could make a note

I only use the HUD on unknowns for stuff like VPIP and PFR but I do use it heavily on regs (200+ hands) as I am currently back at 2NL playing 18-24 tables to rebuild my roll.

All the sample size arguments aside... if you're profitable at 10NL, 25NL, and 50NL... why on earth do you bother playing 5NL??

Never been properly rolled (50BI's+) and wanted to start from the bottom and relearn my game

now im a bit of a bankroll nit (30 BI's before moving to 25nl) but isn't 50 BI's overly nitty? i mean its good to be comfortable and if 50 is where you're gonna stop playing with scared money thats fine but, the rake at the lower levels is pretty annoying

50 is enough for getting stacked not to put me on tilt

Lol, I was looking at the 422 hours played. $2.1k winnings = ~$5/hour... add the rake to that and it seems even worse.

Since you have beaten higher limits I would suspect its just variance. Just a thought though: Do you think you might be bluffing a bit too much for 5nl? A lot of your villains won't fold to a raise on an obvious turn or river scare card if they have any piece of the board at all.

Also, I know its only 5nl but perhaps play a couple of sessions of one or two tables to steady yourself before playing 4+ tables. 5nl has plenty of terrible players but they are terrible in a slightly different way than in 2nl and a bit of time observing more closely on fewer tables might highlight the differences.

Best of luck to you.

Thanks Bill, got a stake at 10NL on another site now after doing so well at 2NL

Sweet, hope it goes well for ya.