Cowboys and stray bullets

Weve seen this a thousand times if weve seen it once. You or someone at the table pushes all in with pocket Kings only to lose to some Ace rag hand.
Lately, Ive been playing my Kings a bit different depending on how ive seen others at the table play.

What I do now, is put in a decent raise depending on the blinds and my stack, then make my move post flop after studying the texture of the flop.

Anyone have any thoughts on this ?

Yes, that's pretty much what many books recommend. 4x-6x the BB, all-in after the flop if it's an ordinary flop, lacking an ace or three to a straight or flush.

but of course the preferred play is getting all in preflop while they're the strongest if it's possible. shouldn't be worrying about ace rag, hope for it

I see a flop with KK, I also try not to raise too high to become committed on the hand.

I think KK vs AA is way to often, and a good way to find AA is push preflop

I have had KK lose a lot and win a lot, so it is tough, have to know your opponents and hope they give up the small pots to keep you from losing the big ones

I would have to agree. The money you will make when he misses will way more than cover the money you lose when he hits.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 70.769% 70.58% 00.19% 116020428 310482.00 { KK }

Hand 1: 29.231% 29.04% 00.19% 47739792 310482.00 { A6s, A6o }

With this big of an edge it does not make sense to play scared imo.

That's pretty shallow. You don't know that caller has Ace-rag. You have to consider the whole range of what the caller might have, and how many callers you might get. You also have to also consider what you might win against what you might lose.

It's one thing to call an all-in with KK, and something entirely different to go all-in with KK and maybe only win the blinds and antes. When you call an all-in, you are a favorite over every hand but AA. When you go all-in you are risking your whole stack, if you get called by AA, to possibly win almost nothing.

So, I will almost always call an all-in with KK, but if I am betting into a small pot, I'm sticking to a substantial raise, and see the flop. Against most players. An exception to that is if there are several agressive players at the table, or people who play alot of small pairs, in which case, I am more likely to push. Or push in a situation where I am short stacked and likely to push anyway.

= winning money over the long run.

For me KK is more often than not an all-in pre-flop hand so that all other players are making a decision for as many chips as I have rather than allowing them to see a flop and hitting an Ace. The other reason is that you dont want to want to give other players pot odds to call if someone does call with their raggy ace it could price other into the hand and the more players that see the flop the likely you are to be out flopped. Always happy for 1 caller but not 2 or 3 or more.

The Muppetteer

Thanks for the replies, Ive read every post and each one I feel has a valid response

any one know what the percentage is for an Ace hitting on the flop ?

Like they already said,go with a raise preflop. A good player whe isn't on a short stack should fold. If you're playin loose aggro donks they will probably call anything you bet. You gotta know your table.

So this strategy about get all your money in when your big would only be right if the expected value of winning pots (1s and 0s bernoulli variables) was equal to the expected value for the amount of money you win for the night, and they are not. The amount of money you have in the pot is not the amount of money you win off the other guy =)~ Need to get them to bet out before you extract value.

That is why when you watch the pros when they have a big hand and big odds they try to get you to bet out at them first before they do something aggressive, because they know the expected value isn't over 1s and 0s its over sums of pots.

With this strat you stole a blind most of the time, as the only people that should call you are the people with AA.

I am a newbie at online poker but them my thoughts. It isn't about getting people to fold, its about getting people to put money into the pot and then fold.

For example, imagine two players (one is you the other is not you), blinds are minimal as they are online non-tournament, one player (you) goes all in as soon as he sees his kings everytime, the other player tries to get you to put some money into the pot before he drops the hammer and makes you defend that bet with an even larger call. Who do think wins more in the long run? Every time you see kings you signal it with all in, and everytime he sees kings he tries to finese you for cash.

BTW there is another nuance I don't think your strategy accounts for:
http://wizardofodds.com/holdem/2players.html

KK wins 82% of the time. Your under the impression it seems that if you wait till the flop to make your all in KK doesn't win 82% of the time. Thats not right. Close your eyes, don't look at the flop, and its your bet. What are the probability that your kings are winning? 82%. You didn't look at the flop even though its on the board. The mistake you make by doing that is not updating for new information, but if you didn't want to rest assured 82% of the time your opponent will not make a hand. Though he might represent something big and force you to play with balls, even more balls than going all in when you can't see the flop and can't imagine the worst.

So I think the critical and best line of betting goes through considering the probability that your opponent will make a hand along with the amount of money you can get them to bet out extra as a proportion of the amount of money in the pot. Eventually there is a tipping point where there is so much money in the pot, and the amoutn of extra money you think you can them to put in the next bets, makes it so you want them to not get a draw. But if you let them draw versus kings? Its still 82% of the time they wont make anything that beats kings.

I think the mistake being commited here is taking things you see on TV where people push out to not let people see cards, and not noticing they are doing it because something worth winning is in the pot and they don't think there is a point to going to more bets at the expense of letting people see cards.

If you have an ace and a king in your hand, you are a 2.1 : 1 underdog to flop at least on ace or king. If you have a pair of pocket kings, it's about 4 : 1 in your favor against a single ace showing on the flop without a king.

The chances of an ace coming on the flop depends on the number of aces remaining in the deck. If one guy has one ace and another card, there are three aces left out of 48 cards. Three cards on the flop make 9 times out of 48 an ace will flop. If two guys have Ax, it's only 6/46 that an ace will flop. If three guys have Ax, it's only 3/44.

I am glad I posted on this thread, because it forced me to think about the simplest way to get at these ideas. The worry about hitting a ragged ace isn't all that logical.

The probability of KKs being best after the river is 82% so even if you let them see all the cards you win 4.5 out of every 6 hands. So figuring the ace on the flop probabilities is just over thinking it (from the perspective of preflop... unless I suppose you have a feeling that you can read your opponent?)

Either on this thread or another thread, someone said "hope they have something to call", thinking of A6. If you ever think to yourself "I hope they call" then if its not the river you shouldn't be going all in unless you are trying to appear weak.

Because think about it. Two cases: in one case you go all in preflop and in the other case you decide to go aall in on the river, but make that decision preflop. In either case from the perspective of preflop your probability of winning the hand preassuming a call is the same (edit: language of probability of winning on a call is dicey if your opponent is using more information than you. Kind of for this hypothetical to make sense the decision to call for the opponent would have to be made preflop too =). The difference is its easy not to call you preflop and its harder not to on the river. So if in your head you really believe I want them to call then the last thing you should do is push all in prior to the river.

The ultimate extension of this and easiest spot to see it is when they are drawing dead. If they are drawing dead then the next card has no value to them, and going all in is clearly a waste.

The idea is the same with making a modest bet on KK, they arn't drawing dead but they are likely drawing in bad way and will only come out on top 1.5 out 6 times (on average).

It's easy to say that you should get all in with kings preflop, because you are going to win most of the time, and this strategy pays off in the long term. On the other hand, today was the finals in my live poker league, with $500 first prize. There were 140 entrants. It was down to 27 players when I got pocket kings, went all-in (13x the BB) and got called by A6 offsuit, by the chipleader. Had I only gone in for 4x or 5x the BB, I could have gotten away from the hand after an ace flopped, and still been in the tournament with a chance to win.

I was on the BB, and two small stacks and the dealer had limped. I went all-in and the the two small stacks called. So the button was getting about 3-1 to call. But, I have to say, this thread played a big part in me going all-in with the kings.

In this particular situation, with so much more than usual riding on the hand; it just didn't matter that most of the time the kings will win. We were playing for 15x more than usual, so the kings would have to win 15 times at the usual stakes to make up for this one loss. Since they are only going to win 4 times out of 5, going all in with the kings this time might have been the wrong play.

On the other hand, had the kings held up, I would have had a huge chip lead. Since I was 80%+ to make 3-1 for my money, I can't say that I wish I had played it different.

I think the point is, in cash games, it certainly pays to get all-in with KK. But in a tournament, with so much more riding on it, it may not always be the case.

last night at a final table with 6 players left (paid 3 places) I woke up with pocket Kings. I raised 1000 chips, leaving me with about 3000, everyone folds but the big stack and he just calls, no reraise. the flop came all low rainbow, I forget the actual cards but it was something like 2 6 9, I moved all in and big stack calls with A7 and hit his Ace on the river.
Now Im pretty sure he was the donk in that hand.

so you're saying that you wish you would have just raised 4 or 5x BB, leaving you with like 8 BB left, and inviting 4 other players into the pot to try to knock you out, but then folding on the flop getting over 2:1?
sounds optimal

The temptation is to go all-in pre-flop with KK; I think that's dangerous because you're going in blind. (Obviously this depends on where you are in the tourney, stack size, etc-> if you're the chip leader then you're in a better position to all-in pre-flop with KK). I play KK by 3x - 6x pre-flop. If I see a harmless flop, then I'll either bet pot-size or 2x pot; rarely will I go all-in because you still have the turn and river cards which could sabotage your KK or you could already be beat.

Ex1: You have KK and raise 6x, you have one caller. Flop is 3c Qs 7h. Looks very harmless so you go all-in. Your opponent calls. River and Turn are inconsequential. You turn over KK, and your opponent turns over trip 7s. Congrats your KK all-in just blew up in your face. That's why you don't go all-in. Remember, poker is a game of gathering information. By going all-in you're essentially not gathering any information, you're going in BLIND. I would bet pot-size and if I get resistance I will take a step back and evaluate the situation. But not evaluating the situation is dangerous.

Ex2: I think the real test of a solid poker player is are you able to fold your KK if the flop looks dangerous. Let's say you raise 6x pre-flop and you have a caller. Flop has an Ace in it. You're the first to act and bet 2/3 pot on the flop. Your opponent raises 2x pot--in my book, I know I'm beat and I will fold KK.
As much as I hate folding KK, I hate even more being a donk and going all-in with an Ace on the board with what is now more likely than not an inferior pair.

Or let's say you have KK and the flop has 2 Qs on it. Again, if I get resistance on the flop, I will generally fold--the likelihood that villain had a Q is high. Again, poket KKs are now no longer the best hand, and are now probably dominated by trip queens.

At the end of the day, poker is a very situational game. We can sit here going through countless examples and scenarios but really at the end you have to make a decision based on your best judgment of the circumstance at hand: 1. Aggressive/Loose factor of your opponent (keeping in mind that even donks will have good hands once in a while) 2. your chip size 3. texture of the flop 4. number of hands in the pot 5. pre-flop and flop betting patterns.

I just had a hand last night where I had pocket KK; I raised 6x and received a caller. The flop came 7h 4d and Qs. I bet pot-size on the flop; villain calls and goes all-in. I evaluated the situation: I have KK, there are no aces on the board; no real flush or straight possibilities. The biggest factor that gave me concern was: what if the guy had pocket queens or pocket sevens; trips was my biggest concern. also, what if he had pocket AA. However, I took a look at my stack and I was fairly deep to begin with and it would cost me about 35% of my stack to call. If I lost the hand, I would have 65% of the chips I began the hand with--not great, but not crippling either. But if I won the hand, then I would eliminate a player and boost my stack. After this thought process (which is usually no longer than 30 secs or so), I decided to call. I showed KK and he showed QA: I would have loved to seen the look on his face as he was eliminated.

If I have a premium opening hand such as KK is,I want to get the most from it as I can,besides the blinds.
Just aiming for the blinds and hoping someone calls your all in is a waste of such a great starting hand I think.
Again it is just my opinion,but rarley will I get all my chips in before at least a raise and reraise with the kings.

I'm not picking on you...

Quote:

Originally Posted by GDRileyx It's one thing to call an all-in with KK, and something entirely different to go all-in with KK and maybe only win the blinds and antes. When you call an all-in, you are a favorite over every hand but AA. When you go all-in you are risking your whole stack, if you get called by AA, to possibly win almost nothing.

...So, you're saying you'd rather call an all-in and be a favorite against every hand except AA, but it's different if you push all-in with KK because you might get called by AA and lose? So, a villain's call range is just AA but their shove range is much higher? This is really bad thinking on so many levels to fear that you're only going to get called by AA if you shove all-in with KK.

Seriously, if you're playing against someone who calls an all in shove with AA only, the best approach is to just shove every single hand.

You're looking at this as worst-case-scenario only but the thing is, call ranges are not just with AA. Villain might easily call all-ins with 1010+, A2s+, KJs+,A10o+. KK beats A LOT of hands this range preflop with the exception of AA. And against A/x, you're still going to win 70% of the time and 80% of the time vs smaller pairs.

Point is...KK crushes so many hands preflop that it's not even funny. KK vs AA situation is a <5% chance of happening. So, 95% of the time you're crushing a hand preflop.While what you say is true, it's not correct. Since you will never know who many aces are out you cannot figure the odds for the remaining aces to hit and nothing changes. It will always be a 26% for an ace to flop no matter how many players are in a hand.So, you're saying keeping 8BBs in an MTT > winning 26BBs 70% of the time?

My question is: if you're not shoving KK here with 13BBs...what hands are you shoving? Above. I'll post more later..i'm tired.

Well, that's fine, but I think you may be looking too much at circumstantial evidence, rather than what has actually happened. If you get all your money in with KK and get called by Arag, you should be ecstatic. If you happen to get drawn out on, oh well, you made the right play.

I think preflop KK wins 72% vs ace rag and post flop if no Ace flops KK wins 91%. I will see a flop alot with KK,QQ,JJ.

Qutsemnie your wizard percentages are for KK vs ALL hands not vs ace rag.

If you can manage to get all the chips in the middle before the flop with KK, you are doing something right. If you are unsuccessful at this, and then an A happens to flop, hit the brakes. But the ideas presented here about how wonderful it is to play KK like you're sorry to have it are mind blowing.

You first have to have a mind to blow!!!! There is nothing wrong with playing KK slow, and if in a tournament why would you want to risk it all with anything preflop?

wow....... great post, I'll have to come back and read it again so it can soak in. Just a ton of opinions and info

It depends on the position I am playing...player reads..and blind to stack ratio....most know 3-6 bb is standard raise but what if I am short stacked...what if that raise is 10% or more of my stack?
Successful poker is largely based on good math strategy and player reads.
World Class players are not playing the cards...they play the situations they encounter gathering all information known at the time.Playing UTG for example is usually not a profitable position...with an over-pair or top hand you may win a small pot or may lose your entire stack...I fold most hands UTG...it's not costing me that much....late position I play many hands...it's more profitable due I have gathered information as the action comes to me..and my hand is much more disguised in late position.
As for the raise...expert players advise to keep open raises to 5% of your stack...at 10% and over your stack is depleting rapidly and if you lose the hand it is much more costly....especially in tournament play..of course cash play decisions are different and depend largely on your bankroll...you never want more than 2% of your bank on the table at any given time...then you can afford greater risk. You are absolutely correct about player reads...I am a firm believer in playing situations rather than playing the cards...that is pro poker strategy.

Entering hands into hand analyzers that rerun the play showing percentages is very enlightening and good training.Several are available free on the I-net.I use "My Hands.com"...there I can take a saved hand history and load it into the analyzer that then re-plays the hands showing all the odds and percentages as they happen.There you can see a strong pre-flop hand change in value depending on players involved,position, and raises.You see further the change on the flop,turn,and river. A very strong hand like pocket kings or AK suited pre-flop...suddenly becomes much weaker at the flop while the dumb pocket 2's have gained momentum...and half the time the A's and K's are beat...one must have good reads on players...the hand analyzer is a great training tool...try it...it's free!

Big reise on preflop and all-in on flop if board without A and three to a straight or flush.... But if you do not risk - all-in on preflop!!!!!

sorry guys, but i just have to say it. Any worry about getting called by ace rag is crazy. if i have kings, im getting as much money in that my opponent will call. every hand loses sometimes; its illogical to worry about ace rag, or even (most of the time) aces. (only worry about aces if you have a ridiculous read in a live tourney, i dont think you could have a read that good online)

I agree with rssurfer54. Unless you think your opponent is calling an allin on the flop with ace rag without hitting his ace you are losing money by not just getting it allin preflop and letting him call with ace rag. You make a ton of money in the long run.