counting odds...

so i was reading an article on different methoids of figuring out pot odds and blah blah blah.... later on that day, in card player magazine, i read a reader-submitted question which was something like..

"when counting your odds, do you subtract the dealers burn card from the total number of cards left in the deck?"

obviously this poor soul was under the impression you subtract the unseen cards from the remainder.....

this got me thinking.... are your odds of hitting the flush the same after you flop a 4 card flush when there were 8 people on the table who were dealt cards, vs only 4 people?

instead of it being 47/52 .... shouldn't we add the % of that suit being dealt for the number of cards that have been removed from the deck?

IMO, I would say you can only figure what you know. Since a player can't see what's been burned or folded, one would think the most accurate way is to use the 47/52 assumption.

TV shows with lipstick cams can figure odds more accurately since they see what's folded, but even they can't see the burn cards.

8 players or 4 players, its all the same in odds. Unless of course you can see the other players cards. Does it make a difference whether the cards are in the deck or in someone's hand? Nope...

no, because if you were going to subtract the "average" number of cards of a given suit held by say 9 other players, you'd still get the same answer, so it's pointless. Take this...

Assume 10 players

2 spades on flop
2 in player's hand

48 cards left in deck
9 spades left
9 other players, holding total 18 cards

3.375 spades out of 18 cards total on average in all player's hands on table

Using standard method 9/48 cards can complete flush = 0.1875 probability of hitting flush on next card.
Using your alternative method on average 5.625/30 cards can complete flush = 0.1875 probability of hitting flush on next card.

outs=number of unseen cards that improve your hand to the best hand.

no.. but what im saying is..... if there were 18 cards dealt..... that have not been unseen... u probably dont have as many spades left in the deck VS had there only been 8 cards dealt.

You should take into consideration how many unseen cards have been removed from the deck is what my arguement is. 18 cards removed from 47 is about 38%. With 38% of the deck being dealth away, do you still think your chance of hitting the spade to get the flush is the same as if only 8 cards were dealt to others?

10 person table.

20 cards dealt. you have two spades
3 cards deat -- Flop. 2 spades.
1 burn.
so 24 cards have been removed, 4 of them spades, 5 cards total we have seen.

that leaves 19 cards that have been removed that could possibly contain spades.

now your odds cant be the same as if the table only had 5 players on it.

10 cards + 3 flop + 1 burn = 14 cards of which 5 we have seen

this only leaves 9 cards that have been dealt out. This means odds are you ahve more spades in the deck to help you out...

and if your arguement is that, there are also non-spades in the deck.. but thing is..

lets say 9 spades left... 9/47 = .1914 8/46 = .1739

but then again... my own arguement to my question would be that.. ude have to take 1 spade for every 4 cards dealt if we're stickin to probability...
from the first situation 24 cards removed... 5 of them seen = 19 unseen.
of that 24, we already have 4 spades.... 25% OF 24 = 6. So that means 2 odds say 2 spades have been dealt in that remaning 19 unseen...

this would leave us with a total of 7 spades in the deck out of a remaining 28 cards.... giving us 25%...

heh.. but this will always add up to 25% so it makes no sense...

im just tryin 2 figure out if your % raises or lowers of hitting that flush based on the number of people dealt @ the begining of the game..

i need to find a hand simulator and have it run 100 hands of a 10 person table with u holding suited and 100 of a 5 person table with you holding suits =]

I understand what you are saying it just has no practical application to hold'em or omaha.....The only things mathematically you need to concern yourself with are pot size(bets to call)/ outs/unseen cards=Expectation

well now thats the funniest piece of advice ive ever heard...

... you dont need more information... just use this info..


frankly, i think it is important to know. And im also very curious as to how holding AK suited with a 4s- 6-s 7h flop holds up on a full table vs a small table....

OK funny advice huh! Feel free to add all the guesswork to the game you want! Exactly how the hell can you possibly "guess" at cards you can't see and say you should add that to the information you know? If you can't see it there is no magical formula that will tell you what those cards are! The concept is about as useful as building an igloo in the desert and equally absurd! Although you never know you might have stumbled upon the most important piece of genius to ever be concieved and it will propel to the top of the poker universe!

*wonders what is wrong with an igloo in the desert*

g/l

Of the 38% being "dealt away", x% will on average be spades. This value of x will be the same even if you don't consider the cards dealt (so you're dealing with the same fractions, but just of 48 total cards or 30 total cards), as the same proportion of spades to cards left will remain in the deck, on average.

There's no need to overcomplicate things.

If you mean "how many times will I hit the final spade?", then the number of people in the hand are totally irrelevant - there's one card that matters, and that's the one that the dealer is about to flip over. If for example you need a single card - the eight of diamonds - to win, you know how many cards there are in a pack (52), you can see 4 cards on the board, you can see your opponents 2 and you know the 2 you've got which leaves 44 unaccounted, so the odds are 44/1. Of course, if Barney opposite has the 8 of diamonds, your actual chance is nil, but it's also Nil in reality if the card is halfway down the pile, at the bottom of the pile or has already been burnt.

XD has it spot on. To work out the odds, you use the number of cards left in the deck. If there is 8 players (16cards) and 3 on the deck = 19 cards, leaving 33 cards. So you work out your outs using 33 unseen cards

The quickest way to work out the percentage of hitting your hand is the 4/2 method. On the flop, multiply your outs by 4 and this will give you a pretty acurate % of making your hand. On the turn you multiply it by 2. So even with 16 outs after the turn, you still only have a 34% chance of making your hand! Crazy to think of it like that, considering almost any player will call or raise a bet with so many outs, yet isnt actually odds on to make his hand

Like I said, this isnt exact but is within 1% of the exact percentage, and its quick and easy

Eh, WTF? XD didn't say that - he said you work out the number of outs from the unseen cards (whether they're in the deck, have been burned or have been dealt to opponents). You dont see your opponents cards unless they call bet. Did your post come out funny, cos I can't believe you meant it like i'm reading it Colin?

XDman said outs=number of unseen cards that improve your hand to the best hand

this is a correct statement. Amount of unseen cards in the deck, this wouldnt include the cards your opponent is holding. So if 33 cards are left in the deck, you assume that if you have an Ace, there are 3 aces left in the deck to make your hand

You cant assume/discount cards that your opponent might be holding

OK, we were at crossed purposes (I think?) - it's just highly unlikely that 8 players will be all in post flop meaning there were only 33 unseen cards. The amount of cards left in the deck isn't of any relevance, the only thing that matters is the number of cards you can see.

I dont really know what you mean here Rob.

Situation. 10 players = 20 cards dealt, that leave 32 cards in the deck.

Say SB call and BB checks, eveyone else folds. Flop comes. That leaves 29 cards in the deck. Now assuming you are calculating your outs and are on a 4 flush spade draw, you have 9 outs for instance with 29 cards in the deck. You must assume 9 of those cards are spades ( so in that sense yes you are correct, you can only discount cards you have seen, but you will not see any of the folded hands, so its impossible to discount any cards)

So the odds of getting a flush is 9/29 - 31%? Is that what you're saying?

I said you cant discount any cards, even unseen cards.

The odds of htting a flush would be aound 20%

Some players calculate their odds differently. You must assume all cards are live (in the deck), regardless of the number of players dealt into the hand

I think I made it more confusing using my theory of number of cards dealt etc but UNSEEN CARDS ARE LIVE CARDS (OUTS)

You have to assume all the cards are live. There is no way to accurately assess how many are out, and trying to figure out the odds of the other players having spades is totally irrelevent.