counting the flop

Hey guys you should try this out.

separating the flop into 3 types

type 1

no face cards

type2

1 face card

type 3

at least 2 face cards



Now when a type 1 flop comes around you can bet that a face card is coming up.

type 2 flops come more often than not 2x in a row. Which means after 2 type 2 flops in a row you can bet that the next flop is type 1 or 3

and so on..

thhats just about the gist of it. tyr looking for other patterns like if a type 1 flop hasnt come around since 7 flops ago the next flop is VERY likely to be type 1.

Try it it only takes 10 minutes of your time.

Poker is rigged.
Errr no, your post makes no sense. Explain in more detail, with some math please.

Not Poker, just Flops.

Sandro, what you're explaining doesn't appear to be anything more that random distribution that your mind is finding a pattern in because it wants to. Even in nature there are patterns that do occur, sometimes with good reason.

Take your type 1 flop, with no face cards on the flop. You say that if this happens, then you can bet a face card is coming up. Well, yeah, I would think that is a better bet as that means that all of the face cards can be available to come up now since we didn't see any on the flop. If none came on the flop, then (counting aces) there are 16 face cards left of the 48 unseen cards (you didn't define pocket cards in your theory, so I'm assuming they are non-face cards. Even if they are face cards, the #s would be skewed proportionally so my example still stands). So if you mean just coming up on the turn, odds are just under 2 to 1 to hit a face card (vs little over 2 to 1 if 1 face card is on the flop and over 2.5 to 1 if three face cards are on the flop). If you mean turn and river combined, then with no face on the flop, an upcoming face would be around 0.75 to 1 (a favorite). With one face on the flop, turn and river combined are still a favorite, but worse at 0.85 to 1. And if the flop is three faces, then you are back near 1.1 to 1, no longer a favorite.

So, like tenbob said, I'd be interest to see a deeper explanation on your 'theory'.

OMG WHY HAVE I NEVER THOUGHT OF THIS

Same as saying if you flip a coin and it comes up heads 3 times in a row that there is a better chance that the next time it will be tails. Simply not true.

Well the #1 question should be...has looking at it like this made you a bunch of money? If so keep doing it becase it did something inside your head to make you win.

It would make sense if you could count cards like in Blackjack. But the fact that there is a new shuffle before every hand in Poker makes this whole idea ridiculous.

Sounds like the people who think they can predict where a Roulette ball will land based on the 10 previous spins. LOL!

You mean you can't?

Definitely not in an internet casino, but I have read that it is possible to identify patterns in a B&M roulette wheel, particularly if the mechanism is at all worn.

I believe the technique involves having a team observe the wheel in turns and take notes over a large number of spins. Ten results is far too small a sample to analyse.

Edit: Oh, and yes I know that`s a very boring straight-faced answer when you were only kidding.

crikey, this is taking Poker Strategy to a whole new level

Everyone knows that if you have an ace in your hand there is a 16% chance an ace will flop and if you have a big pocket pair there is an 84% chance an ace will flop.

Common knowledge

Let me explain mr. snake using my theory in practice

as you say an Ace hits the flop 16% of the time assuming you have on in your hand and no one else does in theirs.

now 100/16 is about 1/6

Now if you are dealt A K and an A hits the flop the chance of that happening WERE 1 in 6

now lets say you are dealt AJ right after that hand. The chances of an Ace hitting the flop again would be 1/6 x 1/6

or 1/36

Simple statistics.


Now for you unbeleivers who think that flipping a coin heads 10x in a row makes the chances of the next toss being less than 50/50 are correct.

BUT

the chances of you tossing a coin and getting heads 10 x in a row are 1/2 to the 10th power meaning that after the 9th consecutive coin toss (heads) I'm not betting that the next toss will be tails and my chances are 1/2 I'm betting that you cant hit heads 10x in a row making my odds of winning are 1024 to 1 a pretty good deal considering the fact that I'm getting 1 to 1 on my money.


Try it

get a coin stand up and toss it in intervals of 2 the chances of it landing heads 2x are 1/4 the chances of it landing tails 2x is 1/4 and the other 2/4 is when you get heads then tails.


I just put it into practice in poker.

Oh my good god!

Heh, try going back and taking a basic class in statistics again, because if you believe that you're going to get your ass handed to you in poker.

Yes, the odds of your A flopping are 1/6, and the chances of it happening twice in a row are 1/36. HOWEVER, if you have already caught the A in the previous hand, it has no bearing whatsoever on the odds of you catching the A this time. Your chance *every single time* is 1/6.

Fair enough, if poker let you gamble on the odds of catching a hand twice in a row you could use that math, but it doesn't. Each hand you play is completely independant of the others, and if you bet as if it isn't you're going to loose money.

This thread is hilarious.

lol in particular at "Simple statistics".

Unless maybe you're playing blackjack poker being dealt off of 5 shuffled decks out of a shoe. But since I haven't seen that game offered anywhere, I'll tend to agree with you here.

Well, there are always prop bets. But, yeah, those are totally unrelated.

DM is right, this thread is great. I'm book marking to read after bad beats so I can stay off tilt. Thanks all.

If I toss a coin and it comes up heads 10 times in a row, the chances it comes up heads again are pretty good because it's probably a 2 headed coin.

Well I'm glad I can help.




Yes the chances of you are still 1/6 if you caught an Ace on the last flop.

But if you look at it in the long run chances are slimmer.



As for me I will look at which cards came up at what pattern per session and also per hand. (counting outs might be a different story)

I'll still try it out though. If it does'nt, well I gave it a shot and theres no harm in trying new things.

Okay, I'll be serious for a moment.

Don't bother trying it out. The thing is, each flop is a completely independent event. That is, a flop is completely independent of the one which preceded it. Yes, in the long run a certain percentage of flops will have an Ace, but just because one flop has an Ace it doesn't make the probability of the next flop having one any higher or lower, as it is completely independent of the last flop. Similarly just because one flop doesn't have an Ace, this doesn't mean that the next flop is more likely to have an Ace just because the results 'have' to tend towards the long run expectancy.

In time the outcome will approach the long run expectancy, but this is simply because when we are dealing with a number of independent events with a fixed probability, results over a large number of trials will always close in on the long run expectancy (which equals the fixed probability). "Simple statistics".

I don't really know why I rambled for so long on something so simple, but meh.

No sarcasm here, if you look at it this way then all the power to you and hope you make loads of cash playing that way, and again no sarcasm within my response.

Umm, I completly made up my stats.

If you hold KK or QQ, it's common knowledge that the chance of an Ace flopping increases to about 4/5. Try it!

This is true. "Simple statistics".

Definitely. I`ve also noticed that.