Correct to call a massive overbet on the flop with some good draws?

Say you limp in on the button with a Queen 8 suited in a short handed high ante/blind game. The flop comes Jack 10 2, giving you a flush draw, a gutshot straight draw, and one overcard. That's a total of 13 outs that will give me the winning hand for sure, and 3 more possible outs if he has something like Jack 5. Anyway, the pot is about 1000 and you have 3000 in your stack he has about 7000. He goes all in, should you call or fold?

What is "high blinds"? I'm not calling 3k to win 4k unless I'm already ahead. If there is at least two people in the pot and it's only 1k then either I shouldn't have even limped or it's not exactly "high blinds" in which case I wouldn't call.

Uh. This is a tournament right? If so, stacks/blind levels/payouts/other key info plz.

fold

I really would'nt call because your on a draw, and to be exact your not on a 13outter ur on a 15outs, because, 3,9's, plus 9 of your suit, plus ur 3 queens, but that being said, yes you have a high number percentage to hit, but it's still a draw, and well i've had alot more outs then that, and watched it all go blanks, so i still would'nt call, but like the saying goes, scared money don't make money.

Never go all in on a draw unless you have atleast top pair to go along with all other factors. Also it depends on all other factors going on around the table.

100 % correct naruto all winning players would make that judgement call as you will lose alot of money long term chasing down draws.

Umm....you guys do realize that if he had Ace Jack or King Jack, I would be the favorite to win right? Even though I would just have Queen high when the chips went in, I'd be over 50% to win against AJ or KJ and he would be less than 50% to win. And yeah, this is late in a SnG tournament. I was the short stack with about 3000 in chips. The other two players had about 7000 and 5000. So at this point I was already in the money so I was willing to gamble. But after long thought I folded that hand, then got knocked out a few hands later to a bad beat. But I was wondering if it was the "correct" play to call with the draws or to fold since he overbet the pot (I'd have to put in like 3,000 to win 4,000).

You shouldn't really be thinking "my hand is a draw = fold" or "i have top pair = shove", but you should be thinking about your equity in the pot. Just because you have a draw doesn't mean that it's wrong to go all-in; you can be well ahead % wise of your opponent's holdings, or you may be committed, or getting great odds to call, or a multitude of other reasons to be putting your stack into the pot with a draw.
If you have a monster draw with a ton of outs, you should be more than happy to get it in on the flop when you're probably better than 50% to take down the pot.

So because my AK has missed the entire board before I should fold that too, right?


Your logic makes no sense. If you have 15 outs, as you said, this means that you are ~60% to hit your hand (and win the pot) if you get it in on the flop, which you should be more than happy to take as a short-stack late in a SNG.

Ben,

If you want an actual hand to be analyzed, read this thread on what to include in a hand analysis thread, and post it in the actual hand analysis forum. We can't really give you a proper answer without the blinds/antes, and reads help as well.

Where'd you get that from? If the pot's 20000 chips large at this point, do you still fold?

There are very few 'never' or 'always' situations in poker.

Chuck I'm not asking for the hand to be analyzed. I'm basically asking this: Is it correct to call a huge overbet on the flop when you have so many outs that you are 50% or better to win? Often a player will have so many outs, like a straight flush draw, that he is well over 50% to win even if his opponent has AA.

OK if you're not going to give specifics, I'm not going to give a specific answer.

Should we be calling this hand? Probably.

Some other key things you're missing which are much more important than the answer you're trying to find with your over-generalized question:

-assuming blinds are 250/500, we should be push/folding preflop, (almost) never limping. Especially not with Q8s.
-open push that draw on the flop if we, for whatever reason actually decide to limp. We have lots of fold equity and a great draw.

I have no problem with you o all in after the flop, as you have so mnay outs and you're short stacked, my problem is the pre-flop limp. If it's late in the tourney and you're on a short stack, you really can't afford to be limping in to speculate with marginal hands.

A good way to look at things is that all hands are draws, except when your opponent is drawing dead.

If you are ahead, you are drawing to the pool of cards that does not help your opponent pass you, and he is drawing to the pool of cards that do.

It's marginal. I don't care to much for the pot odds. I fold.

Sometimes it is, but you may not always have the full 15 outs (here your Q is iffy and dead to KK or AA; also, there is always the possibility of a set, which would nullify some of your flush outs). The "when" it is correct has a lot to do with stack and pot sizes, which is why no one wants to give you an answer .

I think you're over valuing your draws, anyway. Your flush draw, while strong, is NOT the nut draw, you have no real idea whether you "overcard" is any good if it does hit, and given the texture of the board, your 4 outer gutshot may not be that solid even if it does hit.

Also, your saying "The flop comes Jack 10 2" doesn't provide nearly enough information. Is you flush draw a gutshot straight flush draw? How would we know, based on what you've provided? You're looking for specific answers to a very generic question based on incomplete information. Your limp on the button leaves you in the dark as to villains holding. He could have a monster, or a deuce, or anything between. Any or all of your possible outs could be golden, or most of them could be worst case if they do hit.

never say never, there are circumstances where you can do that

like high fold equity situations and crap like that

never say never.

let me re-state, fold pre flop, push the flop

You seem to totally understand the situation, why ask.

You put him on something that your possible str8 could beat. Either a set or JX. So you know your drawing here. Gives you about a 1:4 chance of hitting for a 2:1 (both approximate, don't get picky here) payoff. From that POV, it is not a good call. And you seem to know this.

The real question here seems to be should you gamble or not? A good gamble gives you better than even odds. You at best barely have those.

I fold here mainly because of position. He could be cold stone bluffing you here, he took the initiative with his early position, but at this point a sane person would grant him a real hand.

Had he checked, min bet or maybe even standard raised, It would change the dynamics of play so that a shove might increase your odds here significantly.

He shoved first, he gets this one.......

EDIT a few minutes later....

Thought 1; It's a bit peculiar how often situations like this do occur. It seems that a shortstack gets enamored with the possibilities of a hand and gets it all in at someone else's behest. It's a coinflip pre-turn. You still have enough chips left to play another round or 2, but since you didn't give details we can't know if this is a tourney life or death situation or not.

Thought 2; IF this is a tourney, then your 'M' is in the red zone, you haven't many orbits left, and this could be the best shot you'll get.

It's still a coinflip.

double QFT. draw or no draw doesn't matter once you're all-in. it's about your equity. this normad chad "never go all-in on just a draw" mentality is retarded

The term draw is misleading. It doesn't matter if you need to hit or miss, it matters your percentage to win the hand. If you have an open-ended straight flush draw with 2 overs on the flop, you are technically drawing, but you are ahead. Your opponent is actually drawing, they need runner runner cards that miss you.