Is it correct to be ahead when you put all your money in the pot?

Hi all.

just suffered another badish beat in a tourny.

My JJ forced all in with shortstack on KQ. He hits his Q on turn.

Next hand, I am now short stack, 99 pocket, all in, caller with AT, hits A on river.

Before I go on about it I want u to all know that although I`m a bit p**s*d off, I`m getting used to this. If the stats had worked I should have won at least on of the two showdowns, but I didnt.

What I am interested in is the following:

Some of the books I read state that you should avoid close confrontations early in a tourny. For me thats fine, but that can only work if the other players think the same way. So I got to thinking is the opposite not the better way? I`m sure a lot of online players do this.

I`m sure this has been done before but do u guys think going all in with these hands will work?

AA KK QQ AK JJ 1010 AQ AJs AJ A10s KQs KQ

My opinion of poker now is that because so many new, less experienced players play, the playing field is almost even now - WSOP winner 2006 Jamie Gold - no disrespet to him, good luck to him, but he is not one of the Superstars. None of what I would call the top players got to the final table, even though they all entered the WSOP. Lottery, nothing more. If I have more money than someone else my chances of winning the lottery would be better, even though it is pure chance. How? Cause I can buy more tickets.

When I first started 2 play poker I won more. Why? because I didnt know much about odds, gap concept, etc. All I knew was that A10+ are good hands, a pair is a good hand, and a flush, if u get it, is a good hand. I probably got bad beats then, but was less aware of them. At the same time, I probably hit more ppl with bad beats than I do now, so it is balanced out.

When someone can prove to me that playing the odds works then I will believe poker is a game of skill. Until then, as I have said all along, it is a game of chance in the same way that doing some for of multiple bet on football is.

Spinning a coin is random, but you might have to spin the thing for 100`s of years to get it to be even.

Ronaldadio

Jamie Gold had one seat in the WSOP.

I get that you're upset about bad beats, but demanding proof that poker is a game of skill does - and I mean no offense - tell me that you have quite a bit of learning left to do. Understanding this game means understanding exactly what it is that skill will affect, and logic will carry the rest of the argument from there. Ironically, sports betting is not that different from poker, so in that regard we're in agreement. They're both about knowing which end of the shotgun you're looking at - and I don't remember whose quote I'm stealing. Recognize the situation where you're getting favorable odds, and take them. When the bookie is trying to screw you over by offering you lousy odds, don't wager your money.

Sorry to hear about your unlucky recent history. Hope things shape for you.

Allen Cunningham made the final table and is widely considered a "top player". Here's more:

http://www.fulltiltpoker.com/allenCunningham.php

No proof needed. The definition of "odds" is all you need to know. Nothing's ever 100%. There's always luck involved. The skill is in how you improve your odds with your actions. When you bluff at an Ace on the flop when you have pocket Jacks and your opponent folds his Ace-Rag, that's skill. You can't do that in games of pure chance. Poker sure has luck, but you can affect that luck a lot more than any other so-called "game of chance". So much so that my home state of California has deemed it a game of skill.

As for the bad beat part: Sometimes, they happen closer together and affect you deeper. Sometimes, it's just the bad ones you remember most. Either way, we (me too) need to learn to get over it and move on. Keep working to get better so there'll be less bad ones.

Yes there is a lot of luck, specially in MTT's near the end when the blinds are high. It's not exactly a lottery though.

Lets say there's a lottery, where they only pick numbers from 1 to 10, and there's only you and one other person with a ticket. I'd be willing to bet that he DIDN'T have the winning ticket, even if I missed it as well.
Thats poker. Play the odds, keep in mind that the odds affect the other person as well and you can often use this to your advantage. Now in my imaginary example, sometimes he will have the winning ticket and you'll go broke. Learning to accept that is difficult. If you have a 90% chance of winning, my brain tells me that I should win %100 of the time with those odds. This is obviously a big contradiction. Now apply that to a situation where you are only a 55% favorite.


I think the difference between good and bad players is that bad players will get lucky and hit some low % outs and sometimes win, the good players usually have the odds in their favor but will sometimes lose. In the long term, which sounds better?

If you want to put your future in the tourney on the line with a coinflip, then yes.

No it won't. Why would you want to go all-in pre-flop? You'll only get called by AA, KK, QQ, maybe AK, in which case you'll probably lose all your chips. And you won't get good value when everyone folds for your other hands.

Definitely. Back before the poker boom, Allen Cunningham was in a bit of a poker "crew" along with Phil Ivey, Daniel Negreanu, and John Juanda. If you asked them for a consensus on who the best player in their group was, they all said Allen. I was really rooting for him to win this WSOP too.

And Ronaldadio, I don't know what I can say to you that hasn't already been said in your "poker is luck" topics. As long as you keep that state of mind you're not going to have much success because it shows a real lack of understanding of the game.

If you think poker is merely a game of chance, then you have no business playing the game. Everyone else appreciates your donation to their bankrolls, however.

I think most of you have ignored the most important issue here. Is it always correct to play for all your chips when you are in the lead? Suppose you stay near the average chip stack in a tournament (you will have ups and downs, of course, but suppose you are "typically" near the average). Even if you have your oponent(s) dominated, odds are that if you are all in three or four times in a tournament, you will be eliminated. Playing for cash, you can always rebuy, and in the long run, you will profit by playing for everything with the best hand. This isnt necessarily the case in a tournament! If you are playing against very agressive, loose players in a tournament setting, you either have to get very lucky early on to have a big enough stack for others not to hurt you, OR you have to defy the odds by winning more often then the odds dictate (even if you are *always* playing with the best hand).

cash games you want your money in like that every time.

tourney... id wait and pick my spots more carefully. cant play them the same as tourneys

As far as the skill part. I have said this before but here goes to explain the skill of a randomized situations or game like poker. First of all, if you are all-in the skill is 90% gone. The only skill is knowing if you are ahead when you make the call. You are going to see all 5 cards no matter what so there is no reraise, bluff, slowplay, valuebet etc. to show any skill.

You and I play heads up for 1 million hands (about 1 hr online right, ha ha). In that time we should each get the same number of hands that are flushes, straights, top pair, A high down to 72 starting hands. The skill is the betting. Do you get that last bet when you hold the nuts. Do you fold when you know I have you beat. That is all skill/knowledge/practice/experience etc.

You need to say what you consider ahead. Is your 99 really that much of a favorite against any 2 overcards. Mostly those are called coinflips and I try to stay away from them as much as possible. Do a coin flip 5 times and see how many times you get all 5 right (1 in 32). You do five coinflips for your tournament life you will only the sunshine at the other end 1 in 32 tournaments. Eventually you have to do those types of hands but the fewer you face for you life the better. I don't like to overbet the blinds or risk alot of chips preflop. I would like my skill to come into play and that can only happen after the flop.

cash games you want your money in like that every time.

tourney... id wait and pick my spots more carefully. cant play them the same as tourneys