Cold calling an EP raise with 22-88 OTB at 6-max?

Hey guys, I have been having a read though some of verneers strategy for button play. Do any of you 6-max players also believe that cold calling an EP open with 22-88 from a "TAG" is profitable?

He appears to define a "TAG" as a player with an UTG range of around 14%. Mine's about 13% with my overall PFR around 17%, a little higher than the 10NL average or 15%.

I ask this question because I have been cold folding 22-88 by default (99-JJ is obviously profitable to cald call often) in a similar way that I used to when playing FR. If someone comes along for the ride and stacks are good then it could be a great setmining opportunity with the added advantage of position.

Could I be I missing value with my small-medium PPs by not cold calling OTB in these spots?

When I was playing 6-Max I was calling them....I think if your just going to set mine then folding them is probably better but if you plan to win some pots when you don't hit your set then go ahead and call.

Perhaps it really depends on your post flop skills. I don't really think they are profitable purely for set mining vs the average guy but if you have a decent strategy in place for the 85% of times you miss, (lets face it, we won't often have an overpair) they could be profitable especially if the blinds are loose and passive and come along for an OOP beating.

99-JJ I think are good in these spots but its a bit of a paradox:

With 22-88 you want to be ahead of their range, yet at the same time you want their range to be strong enough to pay you off when you do hit the set!

Most odd! perhaps its too much of an ask and I should ignore verneers 200NL advice... atleast untill my post-flop game is up to scratch.

This is when we want C9 and Stu to cut in and save the day!

First of all, a VPIP of 15 is far from optimal for 6-max IMO, so you shouldn't base your play on what "average" is for the level you're playing. The fact is, at $10NL there are more mass-tablers than you can count, and, by default, they're a lot nittier than someone playing 4 tables. And definitely way off than the optimal style for 6-max. Hell, with a VPIP of 17, if all your raises are merely successful blind steals, you're looking at breaking even.

IMHO, and someone please correct me if I'm wrong, optimal for a 6-max game is around 20/20, maybe even as high as 22/22. That's what I'd also consider a TAG. Anything below 17/13 is a nit in my view. And that's for any stake, be it 10NL or 500NL.

As per your OP, I'd say a lot depends on the effective stack sizes, and how willing villain is to stack off with TPTK. Also, his cbet % and WTSD are important stats, IMO.

At 6-max you aren't calling to make a set, you're right in that you'll lose money that way because there range isn't strong enough to create the implied odds. Also against the 11% that I'd open personally (22+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+,KQo) you're not ahead either. The reason it's profitable though is because sometimes you do hit a set and with position you're ina great spot to control the pot. The other factor is that they're going to miss too and you're going to be able to win pots post-flop without making a hand. With position it's also a hell of a lot easier to get your 77 to showdown against his KQ. If you add everything up it should be profitable to cold call these hands. Mainly because when you hit, you control the pot and build it how you want, when you don't you control the hand so that you can make him fold.

The bottom line, you need to hand read well but that's poker and where your money is made.

One last thing, I think there's a big difference between 22-66 then 77 then 88. 88 seems to play easier even than 77 but much easier than 22-66.

Tried to find a couple hands as examples, I hope you get my point.

View hand 1182025
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $2.02
UTG: $2.12
MP: $1.55
CO: $3.68
Hero (BTN): $3.01
SB: $2.68

Pre Flop: ($0.03) Hero is BTN with 2 ♦ 2 ♣
UTG raises to $0.06, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.06, 1 fold, BB calls $0.04

Flop: ($0.19) J ♦ 3 ♠ J ♠ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.10, BB calls $0.10, UTG calls $0.10

Turn: ($0.49) 5 ♣ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

River: ($0.49) 6 ♠ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero checks

Final Pot: $0.49
BB mucks A ♦ K ♦
UTG mucks A ♥ Q ♥
Hero shows 2 ♦ 2 ♣ (two pair, Jacks and Twos)
Hero wins $0.46
(Rake: $0.03)

Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 1182032
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

BB: $5.44
UTG: $1.35
MP: $5.00
CO: $8.91
Hero (BTN): $6.01
SB: $5.00

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with 4 ♠ 4 ♣
UTG raises to $0.10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.10, 1 fold, BB calls $0.05

Flop: ($0.32) 6 ♥ 5 ♥ A ♣ (3 players)
BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $0.20, BB folds, UTG folds

Final Pot: $0.32
Hero wins $0.30
(Rake: $0.02)



Full Tilt Poker $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em - 7 players - View hand 1182030
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

CO: $1.78
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $1.75
BB: $4.93
UTG: $3.50
UTG+1: $11.55
MP: $4.10

UTG posts a big blind ($0.05)

Pre Flop: ($0.12) Hero is BTN with 8 ♣ 8 ♠
UTG checks, UTG+1 raises to $0.25, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.25, 3 folds

Flop: ($0.62) J ♥ 5 ♣ 3 ♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 bets $0.30, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.22) 2 ♦ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

River: ($1.22) 9 ♣ (2 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $0.55, UTG+1 calls $0.55

Final Pot: $2.32
Hero shows 8 ♣ 8 ♠ (a pair of Eights)
UTG+1 mucks K ♥ A ♥
Hero wins $2.17
(Rake: $0.15)

Oh and that last WAS a value bet

You don't want to be playing 22/22 because it means you're never cold calling and that's bad especially at 6-max when it's way more profitable to flat hands on the button than 3-bet them.

At the micros I don't think there is anything wrong with being on the nittier side. 19/17 seems to be my average but that comes positionally 11/13/16/45/45. I like to play IP .

At higher stakes opening 13-14% UTG is pretty standard with all the suited aces.

First off, I wasn't refering to VPIP. I'm talking PFR, I thought that would be obvious considering we are discussing cold calling a raise from EP.

The average PFR for 10NL is acually 13.69 to be precise. This is an unarguable fact taken from over 900k hands I have in my database. I completely disagree with you when you say I shouldn't base my plays on the average at my stake, what else am I going to base them on vs a new player with zero stats or reads?!

I am with you on the second paragraph however. I think that 17/14 is generally right at most stakes at FR and considered neither loose nor tight.
Seeing as an empty seat at 6-max has more a % impact on your VPIP and PFR than at FR, 22/20 would be considered perfect and I would expect to see these at higher stakes where people open up and play a more complete game.

I think it all comes down to how well you play post flop and for me, its my weakest area. I play something like 13/17/25/34 and run about 18/17 at 5NL though its looking a little tighter at 10NL. Do you think you may be a little TOO positional? If those numbers you have posted are converged your steal range appears to be >4X your UTG range... perhaps you meant % times opened with a raise? I think that C9 explained why this was bad recently in the "positional%" thread?

I know I need to tighten up slightly from the CO but I did today drop T9s from my standard UTG opens!

This is great stuff^^^^

You know your shit man. You should be playing 10NL atleast.

WTF man? This isn't Facebook, atleast give us a some punctuation!

For a start playing post-flop is everyone's weakest area, it's the nature of the game

I think I might be too tight in the CO but I said before my UTG range is 22+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ which I think is profitable in my games. I think Axs are profitable from the FE of playing the nut flush draw fast, something we simply don't have at these stakes. I also don't play 9Ts UTG because you're gonna get called by A7o and then what? Shitty spot where you're not gonna make him fold.

That's why I play 45% on the button, because it's more profitable to do so against these opponents and UTG I want to make a good hand and vaue bet

Have a read of this:

What's your "Position Percentage?"

IMO if you want to steal this wide you should open up a little UTG too.

Perhaps 15/21/30/45 or 14/19/27/42 would be better balanced.

C9 explains it better than I could hope to in the 21st post in responce to my post before his.

Just a thought

I think I get your point, but his point is that throwing away profitable hands UTG and playing trash on the button just for the sake of a stat is bad, which of course it is.

I don't have a set range OTB. There's hands I will always open of course, but if there are two 60/4's in the blinds then I'm throwing away 98o OTB. I play the hands I think are proiftabl, it just happens that I think I can play a lot more hands OTB in the situations that occur than UTG.

Also, balance below midstakes is a myth.

Yeah, sorry mate, misunderstood you there. What I meant by "not basing your play on the average" does not refer to your assumptions about villain; I was referring to the way you yourself are playing. I just understood that you're trying to be more like the average, that's all.

Also, as LuckyChippy pointed out, a style more like 22/20 is a lot better than 22/22. You just have to incorporate cold calling much more into a 6-max game than in FR.

I just had a look at all my 2nl 6-max hands (I think I've played better recently but the stats are similar anyway).

40kish hands, 2-6 players.

13/14/20/40.

The reason they're lower recently is I'm throwing away Axs from UTG now.

Define postflop skill: its a term thats banded around but often misunderstood.

You are playing micros: single biggest leak is people call too much, so why do you think you can make someone fold AA?

If someone has a narrow range UTG then we can assume that they will often flop an overpair (hopefully AA).

We can setmine if the player is likely to stack off postflop with AA. (we have implied odds)

We cannot setmine if the player is unlikely to stack off with a hand as strong as AA (we do not have implied odds) yet can attempt a bluff.

The difficulty is not postflop, its preflop. Preflop you must decide what the player will do and then act accordingly.

Usually there isnt enough information available about his post flop play with AA to make an informed decision but as a generalisation, more players will stack off with AA than will fold.

Where most people go wrong is this. They call preflop with the intention of setmining. (the assume they have implied odds) they then miss and attempt to "use postflop skills AKA spew money". Your opponents decision to call down or fold AA has nothing to do with you missing the flop or not.

The fact is an overpair will not fold to a single raise or even a second barrel so attempting to push people off big made hands without very specific reads is usually going to be a mistake.

So this isnt a "post flop skills" situation.

Simply put answer the following question preflop before seeing a flop

"will this guy stack of with AA most of the time or will he fold a lot to continued aggression"

If you are usnsure assume he will stack off often with AA

If you think he will fold, EXACTLY what reads are you basing this on? Have you got a big enough sample to show he never gets to the river OOP against a TAG with AA? Have you checked that? If so How?

Everyone talks about postflpp skills but in the case of setmining against UTG your plan should be made preflop based on all the info you have at that point because when you dont hit a set its very rare that something will happen that will make you shift from that preflop plan.

As far as playing on the button you should be looking less at hand strength and more on player reads. I don't 3bet or raise certain cards on the button, I react to my reads on the players around me. I sometimes 3bet 85o if I feel like I have a good read on the cutoffs raise and like my table image.