coin flips/all ins

This is a discussion on coin flips/all ins within the online poker forums, in the Strategy Forum section; I was wondering what you guys think about coin flip situations? i've had some sort of bad luck with them recently, and got knocked out ...
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  #1
4th February 2009, 7:49 PM
ihavea4
 
Plays at: Full Tilt
Game: NL Holdem
coin flips/all ins

I was wondering what you guys think about coin flip situations? i've had some sort of bad luck with them recently, and got knocked out of several tournaments just out of the money. for example, i have AQ suited and this guy moves all in with about equal chip stacks, or i have AK and the board flops 555 he moves in on me. ignoring other factors (because these situations come up in all positions and all chip stack sizes) what would you do? when would you call? fold? what kinds of hands should i be playing with preflop in coin flip or all in situations? i know the starting hand requirements and everything, but things change a lot when someone moves all in, especially if it's for a big chunk of my stack. I'm just looking for opinions to help form my own, so let me know what you're thinking.
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  #2
4th February 2009, 7:52 PM
c9h13no3
 
Plays at: Ultimatebet/FT
I really have no idea what you're asking. Mind being a little more specific?
  #3
4th February 2009, 8:15 PM
ihavea4
 
Plays at: Full Tilt
Game: NL Holdem
well lets say i have AK or AQ suited and it folds around to someone who just pushes all in. should i call this generally? in one example, we are about equal in chips, so i'll either be out, or have a few chips left if i lose.
  #4
4th February 2009, 9:18 PM
c9h13no3
 
Plays at: Ultimatebet/FT
Quote:
Originally Posted by ihavea4
well lets say i have AK or AQ suited and it folds around to someone who just pushes all in. should i call this generally? in one example, we are about equal in chips, so i'll either be out, or have a few chips left if i lose.
Blinds, stack sizes, how close the bubble is matters a lot. I'm assuming this is a standard knockout tournament, but if it was say, a rebuy during the rebuy period we'd be insta-calling. If it was a satty, we'd probably be folding. There's just a lot of variables to consider in tournaments.
  #5
5th February 2009, 2:33 AM
ecoutee72
 
Plays at: pokerstars
Game: Horse
I guess it really depends on the sitiuation. Where you are in the tourney. Who is going all in on you. What their play has been like while at the table. Do they tend to play loose or tight. Do you need to risk you chips at this point in the tourney to a coin flip or might there be a better spot to get them in when you think you have a destinct edge.
  #6
5th February 2009, 4:19 AM
RogueRivered
 
Plays at: PokerStars
Game: NL Hold'em
re: coin flips/all ins poker

Well, in a tournament, you don't want to risk all your chips on a coin-flip, the reason being is that doubling up doesn't buy you double the equity. You actually lose equity to all the other players who have folded, on average. In a ring game, you can always rebuy, but in a tournament, you're done. Wait for a better spot, when you're a solid favorite, as best as you can figure.
  #7
5th February 2009, 8:42 PM
ihavea4
 
Plays at: Full Tilt
Game: NL Holdem
thanks guys, this has helped a lot. i'm not sure i completely understand the whole equity thing, but i have a better grasp of it now. basically i should try to avoid calling all in preflop unless i have a ton of chips, or something like aces.
  #8
6th February 2009, 1:19 AM
RogueRivered
 
Plays at: PokerStars
Game: NL Hold'em
Actually, it depends on a number of things, but one of the most important is how you see yourself compared to the other players. If you are one of the best players, then you don't want to gamble for all your chips early. Give it some time for your superior skill to shine through. However, if you pretty know that you are outclassed by the field, or are a beginner, then gambling it up isn't such a bad idea. The good players will hate to have to put all their chips on the line in a marginal situation, so it's actually a good strategy against them. You aren't going to beat them in the long run, so take chances and eliminate their skill advantage by going all-in on coin flips. Instead of being stupid, it's actually smart.

People complain about donks playing crazy, but actually it's a donk's only chance, so it's not so crazy after all.

A good player will not want to get in this situation, though. He'll let the donks knock each other out while making high percentage plays, not coin flips, to build his chip stack against the crazy players.
  #9
6th February 2009, 1:40 AM
bbgold
 
Plays at: Pokerstars
Game: Any game
Coin flip is a Gamble

Gamble equals Risk

So it comes down to how much of your stack are you willing to Risk on the Coin Flip?
If it is a situation where you are only Risking a Small percentage of your stack and have the potential to Eliminate another player to move up in the payout then it is often a Given to Call

If it is a situation where you are Risking a Large percentage of your stack and it has no outcome in what you get paid then it is often a Given to Fold

The Best scenarios for any Call, especially an All In is when you are not at Risk or have the Highest win percentage in your favor, not on a Coin Flip

Now if you can keep that in mind and Ignore the chips in the pot and Protect your Chips then you are one step ahead of me lol
Greed is a Terrible thing!

Good Luck and Good Games!
  #10
6th February 2009, 2:59 PM
David Pisch
 
Plays at: Fulltilt
Game: holdem
In my opinion it depends on the situation:
- in cash game you should make the call
- in tournaments, in which you're near to the paid places you should definitly fold.
- and if you play on fulltilt and you had the whole day bb you should fold definitly, too.
  #11
6th February 2009, 3:36 PM
r.donadoni
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by David Pisch
....
- and if you play on fulltilt and you had the whole day bb you should fold definitly, too.
Can you explain better this concept?
And why only fulltilt?
  #12
6th February 2009, 4:51 PM
robrtp
 
Game: Hold 'Em
re: coin flips/all ins poker

Quote:
Originally Posted by ihavea4
well lets say i have AK or AQ suited and it folds around to someone who just pushes all in. should i call this generally? in one example, we are about equal in chips, so i'll either be out, or have a few chips left if i lose.

there's a lot of other factors involved. Is the person who pushed a sloppy player? are they tight? what is table position? what are the blinds etc. etc.
  #13
7th February 2009, 1:49 AM
bbigg
 
Plays at: full tilt
Game: holdem
depends on the player,your position in the tourney, but trust your instincts 2 make the correct call
  #14
7th February 2009, 3:49 AM
Paul_G
 
Plays at: Stars
Game: Holdem
Ok, this might help paint a picture.

You're midway in a tourney and you've everyone at your table has a decent stack. You get a pair of 5's. Would you push all in? Nope (hopefully). If you have AK in the same situation do you call all in? Nope.
The AK is a slight underdog to the pair but people seem to be more prone to push with it. But you shouldn't anyway.
In both cases why risk your tourney life over a coin flip. Looks daft but people do do it.

Now you're on the short stack in the same tourney later on. The blinds are approx 1/5th + of your stack. Do you push? You have to double up to survive and aces and pairs are 'powerfull' hands to do it with - powerfull in the respect that they can win you a headsup showdown.
The word headsup is important here. Since you want ideally one caller for you double up. If you let your chips bleed away you'll get a few callers. That reduces your survival odds.

It's worth noting that when you're pushing you ideally want to be first in the pot with your push. This is because someone already in means you're probably up against a similar hand that stands a chance of being better than yours - you have fold equity if first in.

In my opinion pushing/calling allins have their place but only when they are needed and when the conditions are right. When you're talking participating in coin flips whilst in tourneys, your fighting to stay afloat.

If you have a string of exits because the odds haven't balanced in your favour, that's just unlucky. Math statistical probability is used to model the poker situation and will be correct over a huge amount of hands. You can get a skewed variance in the short terms but it still the correct thing to do since eventually over enough hands it will even out. You can't gaurantee this in the short term.. As an example, I know a chef that invested his life savings into a bookie business that went bust over a series of rediculous outrageous odds races that come in. He simply thought the likelyness this would happen was too extreme and didn't lay off the bet with other bookies. This was within the 1st month of business. Lost everything. I don't see loads of bookies going bust though. They do quite well because the model their risk on Maths effectively. So should you. Same with Casinos etc.

Just out of interest - one last point about luck actually which I think is very important. Only bad luck is visible. You may not be as unlucky as you think you are.

Assume you've just lost to a 3 outer You're able to work it out instantly how bad your luck is and curse that player.

However, you could actually have been lucky NOT unlucky but not seen it. This guy may have hit a 3 outer to stay alive in the tourney, but his all in move may have made someone else fold - where if he remained in could have resulted in you losing your stack because his hand drew out to a monster. This is why people are always inder the impression that they are unlucky in poker. Becasue they only see the bad luck.
  #15
7th February 2009, 4:05 AM
Xyphon
 
Plays at: fulltilt
Game: holdem
What type of tournament?

That question would all depend on what type of tournament you are playing. Freerolls are usually a toss up because even towards the bubble it seems there are always that one guy that will call you not matter what or with what.
  #16
16th February 2009, 7:40 PM
tdude
 
Plays at: full tilt
Game: holdem
yes but even in freerolls, you want to avoid as many coin flips as you can. like even a q vs. a k that is a coin flip. these are not moves that people make in live poker. i mean this is a reason why there are more coin flips and all ins online, but still. if you can avoid the coin flips, or minimize them, you can usually do alright.
  #17
17th February 2009, 1:48 AM
Paul_G
 
Plays at: Stars
Game: Holdem
I wouldn't say that AQ vs AK is a coinflip, since in this dominated position for the queen the AK is about a 75% favourite.

Do you mean playing either AK OR AQ are usually coin flips?
  #18
18th February 2009, 3:36 AM
silverslugger33
 
Plays at: Pokerstars
Game: HORSE
re: coin flips/all ins poker

Your question and examples don't match. Calling with AK or AQ isn't necessarily a flip. Calling with AK can have the villain dominated a lot of the time. To answer the question that you sort of posed in the title, I tend to avoid flips, because I don't like a 50% chance of being eliminated. I'm confident that I can outplay people, so I'll wait for a better spot than 50/50
  #19
21st February 2009, 7:26 PM
ihavea4
 
Plays at: Full Tilt
Game: NL Holdem
well i meant playing hands like AK or AQ against opponents who move all in. i agree that a lot of the time i will have them dominated, but i've had a lot of suckouts with those hands, which i know will not happen every time, but even against a pocket pair i don't think it's worth it anymore. i've decided to try not to play coin flips or even call most all ins with these kinds of hands anymore. would you guys agree with that for the most part?
  #20
21st February 2009, 11:17 PM
luv_2_play024
 
Plays at: full tilt
Game: holdem
I think that the most important in that situation is try to read the opponents cards. Many people on freerolls are ready to push all ins when they have only T Q suited or even worse.
The other thing is whether U like gambling or not, because without a strong pocket pair its not wise to push big amount of chips against even one donk with cards like T Q or some cards U would consider even limping. That is the card and gambling, Chelsea can lose from Birmingham on home stadium, no matter of a quality of their players.
That is just my opinion, as a junger member of holdem fan.
  #21
21st February 2009, 11:20 PM
luv_2_play024
 
Plays at: full tilt
Game: holdem
Forgotten to apologise to all because of my bad English, but i havent used it 4 quite a lot.
  #22
22nd February 2009, 12:35 AM
puppyfeet
 
Plays at: bodog,Pokerstars
Game: holdem
Quote:
Originally Posted by bbigg
depends on the player,your position in the tourney, but trust your instincts 2 make the correct call

Going on "your instincts" usually equals going broke, and gut feelings will often get your chip stack gutted.

There are so many variables to consider when faced with this decision, but as a general rule I don't want to risk my tournament life to a "coin flip." I would much rather wait until I find a situation that is more in my favor. (Many players feel the same way, so sometimes you can turn the situation around and put that pressure on your opponent, though!)
  #23
22nd February 2009, 2:47 AM
santa fe slim
 
Plays at: full tilt
Game: hold em
The answer, as most poker answers involving strategy is situationally dependent. If you are just out of the money with a decent size stack, NO WAY can you call. Early in a tourney, maybe. In the money, coin flips are a lot more palatable.
  #24
23rd February 2009, 6:59 AM
hotwings18
 
Plays at: Full Tilt
Game: Holdem
re: coin flips/all ins poker

i dont seem to win coin flips online but live they seem to hold up for me
  #25
23rd February 2009, 7:15 AM
nevadanick
 
Plays at: Pokerstars
Game: stud
Quote:
Originally Posted by hotwings18
i dont seem to win coin flips online but live they seem to hold up for me
Certainly never kept records for my live play since '69 but I would have to say it's fairly close to what I've seen in 'coin flips' online. The only thing that might tend to imbalance those situations is that online, more people will call with marginal (or worse) hands than they ever will in live games. Which means you just don't get into as many 'coin flips' live as you do online.
  #26
7th March 2009, 7:04 AM
Poker Orifice
 
Plays at: PartyPoker
Game: NLHE
For starters (without being situation specific) you're more often going to be reraising allin to the orig. shover... you want to isolate the ALLIN.

Many things to consider and each situation is very specific (too specific to give a generalized answer to).
  #27
7th March 2009, 6:21 PM
markpro
 
Plays at: fulltilt
Game: all poker
Ok well first of all you dont know if its a coinflip untill you GET TO SEE his cards, but a lot of the time you get a general idea that theres a good chance there is. For example, you have ace king and you read some guy probably having a fair pocket pair. Now, usually you dont want to blow these away since other than what he contributes to the pot, there are the blinds and the bets of the other ppl that will fold to an all in, so theres a reason why you want to play them. But let say its a tourny, and your short stack... if you know your a good player, theres no point risking your game to a 50 50, even if theres more money in the pot, when you know you can probably get a lot more than that if you play good for a couple of hours, after all poker is a patience game. Good luck at the tables .
 



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