Chasing the flush

Man, THAT'S what I'm doing wrong! Please tell us how to do this.
Gary

[quote=jamesdadeliverer;878778]If you really hit the flush the "large majority" of the time, get me a call so I can put in your buyin to the WSOP. The chance of hitting the flush is only 40%.

Is this correct, James? You're the odds master, but rule of four puts it more in the 36% range. Wizard of odds says 34.97% or 1.86:1. I always shortcut it to 2:1, but it's actually a little bit better than that.

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Nah, 35% is right. I don't really know why I said 40%. Not thinking straight. Guess I'm getting a little fed up too with all this bogus "advice".

You are absolutely right. Good play. You had 9 flush outs plus three aces for 12 outs. Rule of 2 means multiply outs by 2 to get approximate PROBABILITY of hitting on next card. Twelve outs times 2 equals approximately 24% chance of hitting. Round to 25%, and you see that you have 75% chance of not hitting compared to 25% chance of hitting, which boils down to 3:1 odds against hitting on the turn. By mini-betting, he almost certainly gave you the correct odds to call.

Rule of four applies to PROBABILITY of hitting on next two cards - i.e. by the river. Twelve times four = 48%. Round to 50% and you see your chances are fifty-fifty or 1:1 odds.

Your opponent played the hand poorly. He's the donk, not you. Now the question is - what can you do to get him to continue such lousy play? I'd say, be the lousy bumbling player he thinks you are and when you hit again on a positive eV situation like this, act like a doofus and he'll continue to spin out of control and play on tilt. You just keep your head, buddy.
Gary

I forgot to ask. Did you win?

Doesn't matter, really. Win or lose, positive eV play all-around.

i hate being on the other end of the chasers when you definately dont give them the odds to call on a draw and they draw to it seems the next card up is the suit that there is two of already or the strait card they end up taking a pot they shouldnt of even been in happened to me in a big pot today makes you kinda gunshy so i end up way overbetting the pot

today i might hit a flush every time i go for it
tomorrow i might go for one 30 times and not hit a one
but i think you should go for it if you can afford it not as desperation and dont let someone put you all in till you got it

your only a donkey if you have to chase runner runner to get it. 4 flush on the flop and your fine 3 flush on the flop and your not only a donkey but just plain rich. if you can afford to play that way you dont need help or addvise. sorry to be blunt.

Why do you post advice like this? And the guy before you too. Are you just going for the 50 posts?

Four on the flop and you should go for it? Regardless of bet size, calling odds, pot odds? Somebody puts you all in, $100 in a $2 pot - and you should go for it - just because you have four to a flush?

But if you only have three to a flush, always fold. Even if you have other draws. Even if the call is dirt cheap?

Every decision after the flop and turn is based on the conditions at the time. Your 3-flush on the flop could turn into a 4-flush on the turn. What's your advice then? The correct answer is: there is NO blanket advice. It depends on calling odds and pot odds. If you think it depends on gut feel or you do it because you ALWAYS call with a four flush draw, then play that way. But you shouldn't be giving advice like that.

There are other ways to play these things, of course, including BLUFFING. But cold calling against the odds is just plain stupid.

sorry to be blunt

I do think that otherwise good players do sometimes fail to call sufficiently with their flush draws. When you're facing a continuation bet with a four flush against an opponent who may well be making a standard continuation bet with nothing or with one or two overs I don't think there's anything wrong with making the call on the flop and maybe even the turn. They may well be betting an inferior hand to yours and if you do make only a pair on the turn it may well be the best hand. Or if you float them with a flush draw, you may be able to take the hand away from them on the turn or river if they give up on their cbetting. While I would advise many players to give up on their flush without at least the nut draw and two overs to the board I don't think that it's necessary to give up on flush draws nearly as much as mid-level players seem to think it is. A flush draw with two live cards is a powerful hand against just higher cards and you may even have the current best hand. While I generally prefer to be betting or raising with my draws, if you do opt to call I don't think it's necessarily as bad of a play as many presume if it is even a bad play at all.

Pot odds and potential odds are very important. If you call a hugge raise! even if you manage to catch the flush, its very likely your opponent knows u were trying to catch so he will be very cautious, so potential odds go down a lott in this case! On the other hand if its a small raise, you could even give it a reraise! This could win you the pot right there, and if not you always have the chance to catch and make your opponent have no clue of what you have. The major risk in this though is a reraise on his part and making u risk loosing a bigger stake or folding what could have been the winning hand. It all depends on who your playing, what your read is, and all the tiny cermunstances in the game.

OK, first post here, but can someone clear up these percentages for me?

if we only deal with the flush, i.e. we aren't looking to hit top pair to win also.

then on the flop if we have 4 to the flush, that leaves us with 9 out of 47 cards that will give us a win.

so we have P=1-( (38/47) . (37/46) ) = 0.35

so this gives us a 35% of hitting the flush in the next 2 cards dealt.

But hitting it ON the turn would be P=1-( (38/47) ) = 0.1915

and slightly the same for the ON the river having failed to hit it on the turn.


so my question(s) is/are: if your opponent bets a quarter of the pot on the flop, this is giving you 5:1 pot odds yes ? in which case the minority of times you hit, it will pay off with +ve EV ?

so if you are playing against a player you know well and they give you the correct odds on the flop, but you know they will either try to bluff or bet big on turn, would it still be correct to call on the flop?

moreover, i read somewhere that only experienced players bluff on the turn...
i cannot think of any reason this would be... any answers?