Chance of seeing a flopped flush on unicolor board

LD1977

LD1977

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Theoretical question.

Chance of flopping a flush when having 2 suited cards = 0.085%
Chance a random hand has 2 cards of board suit = 10/49 * 9/48 = 3.83%

So, lets say we raise and see an unicolor flop. How do we estimate the chance that an opponent flopped a flush? To make it simpler lets assume we don't have any cards of board suit.

Reason I started doing this is that lately as preflop raiser I have:
- seen a total of 43 unicolor flops
- vs. a total of 50 players
- saw 22 showdowns
- saw 9 flopped flushes (one of these was against my own flopped flush)

Action in some hands where I didn't see showdown indicated flopped flushes but I can't be sure so lets assume there were none.

9/50 seems a bit excessive since people actually have calling ranges which consist of pairs, suited cards (Axs, SC, suited Broadways, suited gappers, fish have ATCs) and some unsuited cards (blinds mostly, we usually see some connectors and Broadways).

Against random hands I should have seen 2 flushes and not 9 (or more, considering unseen showdowns), but ofc those are not all random hands.
 
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