Cash Game Strategy Discussion.

Well I'm not sure what the %age would be to want a call. Presumably when we are well ahead. Because when we only have a small edge i.e 51% to say up to 55% I prefer having the fold equity my push has rather than taking my chances on a coin flip. If I had to put a %age on it and quite obv I'm not a great maths person when it comes to making the +EV calculations, but I want calls when i have probably 65%+.

Is this what your asking FP?

That's what I'm after, yes. It takes quite a big edge to "wish" for a call on the flop even when the pot is relatively small (30BB with 90BB stacks behind in this case). If the pot were big, the edge required to gain from a call rather than a fold gets even bigger, of course.

well, you want him to call if his odds make it wrong for him to call. After you push 90BB into a 30BB pot, he has to call 90 to get a chance at 210, so he needs to win 42.85% to break even. So if you have > 57.15% edge you wish for a call, otherwise you wish for a fold.

Bw07507 and I are 1337.
Or we are inefficient.
Or somewhere in between.
But we're definitely something.

I'm not sure if a positive NSD is a good thing. I mean, if the risk of losing on the river is greater percentage than the extra chips we get from value betting, winning NSD hands is good. But if we can increase the pot by a greater percentage than our risk of losing, we're losing value.

So if someone makes a lot of successful bluffs, enough to overcome $ lost to blinds, a positive NSD is a good thing.

I don't think I bluff too much. Well, I continuation bet all the freaking time, but I just consider that proper protocol, not a bluff. And I guess if I thought I bluffed too much I'd stop myself from doing it.

Personally, I think me being positive is based on my freakish winnings in the SB. Somehow I just get lucky in that position. (Someone's gotta the win the lottery... might as well be me)

That would be a pot odds, or reverse pot odds question. He's getting 1.33:1 odds on his money, meaning he must have 1/(2.33) to call, which comes out to 42.9%. We must then have higher than 57.1% to want a call. Of course if we factor in rake, the number's probably even higher, although not by much.

Zach, you must be slipping. 1st you only compute the percentage to 1 decimal after Belgo went to 2 and then you don't do the math to figure it out with the rake? What's the world coming to?

lol same.

Attached Images

NSDlosses.JPG (60.5 KB, 5 views)

I vote that from now on, if a pot doesn't go to showdown, that all money is just refunded back to original owners. All in favor say 'aye'.

lol didn't even see that, although I think he's wrong. I got 57.14285714 which rounds to 57.14% when using the extra digit

Right, and the point of the exercise was to show why...

... is not true. It's really great when we can fold out top pair hands. Especially since we're not a huge favorite vs. any top pairs. In fact, we're a dog to some of them, even with OESFD (as shown earlier).

Pushing combo draws is profitable because of fold equity.

Indeed, it's 57.142857142857142857142857142857%, and I rounded badly.

Including rake, you win 210-3 = 207 when you win a showdown and you win 30*0.95 = 28.5 when villain fold. So you benefit from a showdown if your showdown equity is better than (28.5+90)/207 = 57.246376811594202898550724637681% . That's more than a 0.1% difference!

Wow, I never thought about it this way. That's a great point I have to take into mind; it's not always getting the best hand out, it could be an underdog with the right odds to call.

Thanks.

Ok, so is this the scenario you're talking about?

Lets' say your hands were dealt face up at $10NL.
You have Kd Qd
Villain has 3c 3s
You'll win 50.4% of the time.
He'll win 48.84% of the time.
But the rake will be 5%.

Even though you're the favorite, if you shove and he calls, it's a losing play for you because of the rake. (Note, the villain has even more -EV)
But if he folds to your shove 5% or more of the time it's a +EV move.

(I guess technically he'd need to fold slightly less than 5% of the time for it to be +EV, but I'm keeping it simple)

Back to the NSD stuff...

Bw07507 and I, both have "unusual" NSD stats and I just realized that we are both primarily 6-max players. So could it be a 6-max thing?

Mine are at FR so I doubt it.

it may be 6max because of the fact that you need to be more aggro in 6max but your also playing more hands so I dont know if it is really effected that much, but then again everyone says 6max requires more skill to beat because you have to play better post flop so you would assume that your NSD would be higher than FR where your looking to just value town your good hands alot more.

I think it might be b/c we are playing 25NL and most people here are playing 50NL and above. From my experience, 25NL is so much easier to beat than 50NL. It is so easy to spot a bad player bluffing at 25NL, almost every person that is bluffing at 25NL bets less than they would with a good hand. All you have to do is spot what they usually bet, if its less, raise it. I cant tell u how often I take pots raising small bets.

I just got PT3 an was lookin at my NSD, i went through a stint of not playin poker but now ive come back, an its going awesome, but my NSD is showing a negative over 297 hands, (in about 4-5 hours) Does this mean im seeing too many flops?

You'll need to play a lot more hands to figure that out. I've got 20,000 hands at NL25 and I can't be confident that my stats are true.

what type of agression factors are the FRers running at? im at 2.2 TAF and street by street im at 1.88/3.69/2.32/2.60 (pf/f/t/r). What can you deduct about my play from theses stats?

Munch - over 100k hands I have these figures Total AF= 2.26, F/AF= 2.7 T/AF = 2 R/AF = 1.6

I actually like your F/AF more than mine. You also seem to value bet the river more than I do. If I were to criticise both our stats it may be that our Total AF is a liitle low, maybe 3 should be a target. So I suppose that may be hyper critical, b/c we call a bit more, but it is full ring after all.

i think that may be why im dont have good results higher up, i dont apply the gap concept enough, in other words my calling a raise range is to big compared to my raise range.

Jag would you say that i c-bet alot but slow down on the turn if i dont have it to much or is slowing dow on the turn allright at 25nl?

It's difficult for me to comment on the flop AF, b/c originally I was a 6max player. Usually for a 6max player their cb% or flop AF if you like is usually quite high. I would expect a 6max player to have at least 3-5 flop AF. I wouldn't say your CB'ing too much with a flop AF of 3.6, but you need to obv pick the right opponents to do it. Naturally the turn AF is lower than the flop AF so I don't think it a huge leak if at all TBH. FR is a totally different beast altogether than 6 max, so unless one of the 'true' FR regs can contibute on your stats, they seem fine to me.

AF=2.96 1.71/3.5/2.7/1.93 - Odd that your street by street is higher on 3 of 4 streets but your overall is much lower. I guess this means that I fold more than you postflop??? What is your flop cbet percentage? Turn cbet?

Isn't his total AF of 2.96, the av of flop/turn/river AF's?

Just ignore me I'm talking s%&te!!! + I need to go to bed = tilt IMO!

where do you find your Cbet stats in PT2?

I'll have to look tonight.

I think it's under 'more details' in the general tab.

edit:
yeah, general tab>more details (at right)>'first action after pf raise'>bet.

billy, flop cbet is 61%. i only fold 7.8% of the flops i see when i p/f agressor.