calling/folding to the durrrrrr overbet at the river.

#1 20th December 2011, 5:26 PM

okay so you played with guys who make that huge overbet at the river....a really big bet more than pot size....is he bluffing? or does he have really big hand?
I know its a depends questions....but lets say you use your spidy senses and still come up with a coin flip decision.....is there anything that sways you to make that hero call or that smart fold?

#2 20th December 2011, 5:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlam

okay so you played with guys who make that huge overbet at the river....a really big bet more than pot size....is he bluffing? or does he have really big hand?
I know its a depends questions....but lets say you use your spidy senses and still come up with a coin flip decision.....is there anything that sways you to make that hero call or that smart fold?

Prior reads and notes on that particular villain.

Barring that, I just go with how lucky I feel or how many Crown Royals I've ingested that evening.

#3 20th December 2011, 5:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by dlam

okay so you played with guys who make that huge overbet at the river....a really big bet more than pot size....is he bluffing? or does he have really big hand?
I know its a depends questions....but lets say you use your spidy senses and still come up with a coin flip decision.....is there anything that sways you to make that hero call or that smart fold?

If you're 100% sure it's a "coinflip" situation then it's breakeven to call in terms of money no?

If that is the case then it's not really benefical to call I don't think. You are never 100% sure though, so if at best you think it's a coin flip I don't think calling is profitable in most cases as you're never going to be ahead to make it profitable enough.

So to put it in context if you're always a 50/50 on a call and you know 100% this is the case, then it's never a win or lose situation. However, because we're never ever 100% sure if it's 50/50 spot, it can never be profitable to call as we can only be at a "flip" at best.

#4 20th December 2011, 6:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramdeebam

If you're 100% sure it's a "coinflip" situation then it's breakeven to call in terms of money no?

If that is the case then it's not really benefical to call I don't think. You are never 100% sure though, so if at best you think it's a coin flip I don't think calling is profitable in most cases as you're never going to be ahead to make it profitable enough.

So to put it in context if you're always a 50/50 on a call and you know 100% this is the case, then it's never a win or lose situation. However, because we're never ever 100% sure if it's 50/50 spot, it can never be profitable to call as we can only be at a "flip" at best.

Dead money, i.e money already in the pot.

I love overbetting on the river when I know they'll call, I do it fairly often. Not playing high enough to really do it as a bluff yet.

#5 20th December 2011, 6:22 PM

it's the Isildur1 overbet btw.

#6 20th December 2011, 6:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by baudib1

it's the Isildur1 overbet btw.

Well in that case it's a snap call...

#7 20th December 2011, 7:19 PM

It'sa read thing - but not my read on him as much as my read on what his read is of me. If the guy has been playing me and paying attention he is certainly going to think I'll fold to that bet. That's why I often hear at the table, "I really didn't think you'd call there."
Well yeah, I'm going to - but usually only when it's worthwhile. I'll let the rest go for moments such as these.

#8 21st December 2011, 4:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ramdeebam

If you're 100% sure it's a "coinflip" situation then it's breakeven to call in terms of money no?

If that is the case then it's not really benefical to call I don't think. You are never 100% sure though, so if at best you think it's a coin flip I don't think calling is profitable in most cases as you're never going to be ahead to make it profitable enough.

So to put it in context if you're always a 50/50 on a call and you know 100% this is the case, then it's never a win or lose situation. However, because we're never ever 100% sure if it's 50/50 spot, it can never be profitable to call as we can only be at a "flip" at best.

This makes no reasonable sense if I feel I'm 50:50 isn't better to call than to fold? There dead money in the pot I lose every time I fold. If I'm right and I'm 50:50 I will not lose the dead money .
I will be wrong half the time (that ok) i will break even rather than lose all the time by folding

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