Calling the 3-bet blind defence IP

Hey guys!
I wanted to start a discussion on the odds that we look for when considering calling a blind defence, for the sake of argument lets assume that he folds to the steal around 75% of the time and is an average 25/14 5NL 6-max player. I would like to add this to may strategy to give me something to work from as often I find myself getting progressively more and more cally and loose/passive in these spots throughout the poker session especially if tilt or bordom creeps in!

I understand that if he folds less to blind steals we can call wider and if he fold more then we need better odds to call this bet in position.
Having played a fair amount of HUSNGs I also know the value of varying your blind steal bet from a min-raise to 3X to manipulate his actions.
I will leave you with a couple of perhaps badly played examples and invite thoughts and ideas.

Frank.

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

BB: $4.71
UTG: $6.96
MP: $0.72
CO: $9.74
Hero (BTN): $5.00
SB: $4.34 No particular reads on this guy so we assume he is a 24/14 with a steal of 25 and a pre-flop 3-bet of 5%

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has A♣ T♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $0.14, SB raises to $0.45, fold, Hero calls $0.31

He is pretty much a full stack and I am getting 1.6:1

Flop: ($0.95, 2 players) Q♣ 7♣ 3♠
SB bets $0.85, Hero raises to $4.55 and is all-in, SB calls $3.04 and is all-in

The board is effectively about as dry as can be considering I hold two of the clubs though in hindsight I guess I had zero fold equity here and pot equity may not have cut it!

Turn: ($8.73, 2 players) 3♣

River: ($8.73, 2 players) Q♥

SB shows J♠ J♣ (Two Pair, Queens and Jacks) (PreFlop 68%, Flop 57%, Turn 9%)
Hero shows A♣ T♣ (Flush, Ace High) (PreFlop 32%, Flop 43%, Turn 91%)
Hero wins $8.30

well anyway...






PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: $3.93
BTN: $5.00
SB: $6.56
BB: $1.73 This guy is a slightly tighter than the norm 17/11 with a steal of 24 and pre-flop 3-bet of 5% which is about average
UTG: $6.68
Hero (MP): $6.22

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: ($0.07) Hero has Q♠ J♣

fold, Hero raises to $0.20, fold, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.60, Hero calls $0.40

Ok so I am rasing from MP here with QJ and get raised up by the blind. I guess I could give him more credit here seeing as he is likely to put me on a strong range and I am playing the very bottom of it. I am getting just over 2:1 though so I call.

Flop: ($1.22, 2 players) Q♦ 4♦ 5♦
BB bets $1.13 and is all-in, Hero calls $1.13

Is his what they call having reverse implied odds?!

Turn: ($3.48, 2 players) 7♦

River: ($3.48, 2 players) 3♥

BB shows Q♣ K♣ (One Pair, Queens) (PreFlop 75%, Flop 85%, Turn 85%)
Hero shows Q♠ J♣ (One Pair, Queens) (PreFlop 25%, Flop 15%, Turn 15%)
BB wins $3.31

I guess that one was a cooler...

I think these are situation dependent. You cant assume that range about an unknown, you have to have a better read in order to know how much to blind steal against him

Hand 1 is hard to say because we have no reads on him so I probs fold it and wait to see if they turn out to be a maniac or whateves.

Hand 2 is defo an easy fold. Technically its not even a resteal cause you're in MP.

I would fold with QJos to 3 bet. Very rarely are you in even decent shape here. Even if he's 3 betting with KQ, he's got you crushed.

Well I am going to bump this thread as I've had a little more insight. I am trying to put together a strategy for calling blind defences IP. I guess I am usually getting about 2.5:1. My usual blind steal is about 14c, there is 7c dead money already in there and villain will generally 3.5-4X me an blind defence.

Looking thorough my database I have discovered quite conveniently that my 3-bet to defend against a blind steal is pretty much inline with the average for my stake, about 5.0-5.3% (I am aware that this is quite low!)

When average 5NL Joe opens from the CO for a steal I might 3bet with:
TT+, AJs+, KQs, 98s, 87s, 76s, AQo+
I am quite happy to assume that they will defend with the same range in this spot.

When average 5NL Joe opens from the button for a steal I might defend with:
99+, AJs+, KQs, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, 98o, 87o
I am quite happy to assume that they will defend with the same range in this spot.

What kind of hands would you guys be likely to call with IP when opening for a steal and being 3betted by villians using these ranges... and bearing in mind that you are getting 2.5:1 odds?

Why are you defending with these hands? What's your plan for the hand? Why are you defending 99? How about 87o?

Well I am defending with 99 because I believe that villian will either fold often enough or call with a hand that is worse or not a lot better (I can rape most guys post-flop at 5NL)

87o is just the botton of my bluff range. My bluff range accounts for 30% of the time that I 3bet to defend against a blind steal from the button. I guess you feel these plays are a somewhat loose.

My plan for the hand is to win as much money as possible, preferably dishing out a little humiliation to boot!

Don't suppose you fancy answering the question I posed in my last post?

It just seemed like when you said defend I thought you meant call and obv flatting 87o is terrible. Why are you 3-betting 99 then? Do you ever flat call with anything?

Yes I do. I used a large database or several 100k hands to figure the average PFRs from UTG, MP, CO, Button isolating limpers and blindsteals for the average 11-14 guy at 5NL. Then repeated the entire process using the reports filters on PT3 for overall PFRs of 14-19, 19-25 and 25-33, all for all positions at the 6max table. I had to download some custom stats from the PT3 website to do this but I got from this 20 specific PFR ranges which covers IMO 95% of opponents pretty well.

I then devised calling ranges that let me dominate 2/3 of villians hands for each of their ranges. This took quite some time but I feel I now often have a massive edge when calling IP.

My flat calling does tend to overlap my 3betting however in several areas though I guess the 3betting is more likely to need attention.

If an average 11-14 PFR button opens for a steal I might flat with:

99-JJ, ATo+, KJs+, A9s+, KQo

As with all my strategy its a work in progress. I often tweak my default ranges here and there if something doesnt look quite right. Perhaps 99 is more an OOP call pre-flop and I could replace 87o and 98o with 65s, 54s and 4 suited gappers to keep the same bluff percentages and be easier to play post-flop if villian calls IP... I dunno

Lets say you 3 bet to 50c with 78os from the blinds and he calls you, and now you are OOP in a roughly $1 pot.

What are you gonna do in these two hypothetical scenarios. I am asking cuz I normally don’t 3 bet without a big starting hand unless the raiser is a maniac.

As6dKd
6s4d2c

Well I would be 3-betting this with 87o hoping for a fold and I would like to think that making this bet was immediately profitable. If he calls and the flop comes down As 6d Kd then Cbetting is pointless. He isnt folding any A or K he has, any FD and most paint. I would check and probably fold to all but the smallest of bets.

The second scenario with the gutshot and two overs. I think I would consider betting depending on his stats. The board is only going to get worse and although I surely have the worse hand at the moment, I was the PFR, I have no showdown value so now is the time for aggression, if at all.

If I was to bet it would probably be a quick large say 75c bet or perhaps time out for 20 seconds to really get his attention and then throw something really suspicious out there like 39c or something to plant that seed of paranoia!

Really though the second hand depends on his stats.

I would like to say though that I will probably be replacing the 87o and 98o with 65s, 54s, T8s, 97s, 86s and 75s as the latter 6 account for the same % as bluffs and probably play more straight forward post-flop.

Looks like spew to me.

Well that clears that one up then! Great input

Seriously man, after getting the e-mail alert that C9 has replied to my thread, I'd sooner not feel so underwelmed.

Dont 3bet hands like 87o especially at 5nl.

People like to call.

Yes it depends on his stats but 3betting such a wide range will cause people to adjust in all sorts of ways.

Micros are about value and getting value.

Look at the 2 hands you initially posted.. they werent 3betting light but you felt you had to do something. Which you dont.

Now you are trying to 3bet junk on the button. Which you dont need to do.

How wide is the COs range? probably not as wide as it is at 100NL

And lest assume it is wide and its wide for the right reasons.. you start 3betting he thinks you are playing back at him and spews out because he sees himself as the next Durr.. hence he is widening his range in the Co.. now you have 8 high wouldnt it be better to hold something decent and have him spewout then??

Just look what kind of hands you were 3-bet with in these examples. JJ, KQ. Players at these limits usually don't 3-bet those hands, but when you steal from the blinds their thought process goes like this: "Gee, my hand is better than average, and I know he's stealing, I'll show him!"

Now, your adjustment, at least in the hands you posted, was to call with hands that are slightly worse or dominated by the hands he's 3-betting. Do you understand how that's the exact OPPOSITE adjustment you should be making? If our opponents are value 3-betting a bit wider, our adjustment should NOT be to value-town ourselves by calling with dominated hands.

So yeah, in two paragraphs, it looks like spew to me.

Just steal & give up when they play back. If they're actually playing back a ton (as in folding less than 50%-60%), then the appropriate adjustment is:

1) Tighten up & steal a stronger range.
2) Call 3-bets with your monsters. (KK+, AKs)
3) 4-bet/call it off wider.
4) 4-bet bluff more.
...
10) Limp the button and let him raise, and play a pot in position.
...
25) Call his 3-bet & play a flop with reverse implied odds hands in a big pot.

Hilarious thread...