Calculating set odds

#1 23rd October 2008, 9:52 PM

I understand pot odds and pretty much get implied odds...but I dont know what set odds are. Its probably much simpler than I think but it would be great if someone could quickly explain it (who knows it might be a useful edge for my game).

#2 23rd October 2008, 10:27 PM

I think set odds are for when you need to hit on the flop to stay with the hand. Its for implied stack situations, like when a nit has made it clear he/she has a big pair. You're going to hit a set less than 1/8 on the flop so if you have to invest more than 1/10 your stack its not worthwhile (there is that small chance of set over set) I think I've read 1/12 is the most some regs would call for in that situation.

#3 23rd October 2008, 10:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by D'wilius

I think set odds are for when you need to hit on the flop to stay with the hand. Its for implied stack situations, like when a nit has made it clear he/she has a big pair. You're going to hit a set less than 1/8 on the flop so if you have to invest more than 1/10 of the smallest stack its not worthwhile (there is that small chance of set over set) I think I've read 1/12 is the most some regs would call for in that situation.

FYP - as I understand it.

#4 23rd October 2008, 10:53 PM

Assumptions: Your opponent does not hold any of your set card (if you have pocket 2's, and he's raised preflop, that's a pretty fair assumption).

With this assumption, the odds of a set not flopping are (46/48)*(45/47)*(44/46) = 0.9583*0.9574*0.9565 = 87.7% chance that you won't flop a set. And thus your chances of flopping a set (or quads) is 12.3%, or 1:7.13 or 1 out of 8. However you prefer expressing probability. If you don't make the assumption that the raiser has 2 cards that aren't a 2, you get 11.8%, but essentially the same number.

#5 24th October 2008, 3:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by c9h13no3

Assumptions: Your opponent does not hold any of your set card (if you have pocket 2's, and he's raised preflop, that's a pretty fair assumption).

With this assumption, the odds of a set not flopping are (46/48)*(45/47)*(44/46) = 0.9583*0.9574*0.9565 = 87.7% chance that you won't flop a set. And thus your chances of flopping a set (or quads) is 12.3%, or 1:7.13 or 1 out of 8. However you prefer expressing probability. If you don't make the assumption that the raiser has 2 cards that aren't a 2, you get 11.8%, but essentially the same number.

And if your opponent does hold one of your PP, he's even more behind.

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