C-bet % question

I am hearing a lot of players say that when they cbet 1/2 pot with air, it only has to work 33% of the time to show a profit.

Why is this?

When I look at the situation I think the 1/2 pot c bet has to work more than 50% of the time to show a profit.


If the pot were 100 and I c-bet 50, I see it as I am paying 50 to win 100. If it works I get $100 (2x50) and if it fails, I lose 50.

So where does the 33% come from?

My only guess would be that what their calculating as odds is that every time the C-bet 1/2 the pot they win doing so 1 out of every 3 times they attempt this move?

But their words are 'this only needs to work 33% of the time to show a profit'

If isolated, the 1/3 figure makes the move break even, but the cbet, used judiciously, will succeed more often than 1/3 of the time (and thus profitable). Used cavalierly, the cbet will not meet the break even criteria, as opponents have a way of noticing things like this, and will fight back. Of critical importance here is the ability to give up on a hand when faced with resistance.

Another factor, the occasional cbet against multiple villains (generally not recommended), improves the profitability.

maybe they shoulda said 34% to show a profit




Snow

I'm not quibbling if a profit is shown at 33 or 34% I'm asking why its not at 50%

Because you bet $1 to win $2.

If you bet the pot, THEN it needs to work half the time, because then you risk $2 to win $2. Losing $2 half the time and winning $2 half the time makes you break even.

Use your example, 1 in 3 times it works:

1. doesn't work -50
2. doesn't work -50-50=-100
3. does work -100+100 = 0

33% means you get 1:2 on your steal. If you bet pot it has to work 50% of the time assuming absolutely no equity.

Thanks guys, that makes perfect sense.

When I look at ratios I sometimes forget its a ratio and instead think its a fraction.

If any doubt try this

you got 100, decrease by 25 % you got 75, right? Now increase that by 25%, what you got now? eh? so 25% doesn't always equal 25% ?????

Don't bother correcting me here, it is a mind and semantics exercise and I know all the angles........