Blog crosspost: Bloating, Equity and Pot Odds

(Sorry, Rob!)

http://www.cardschat.com/blog/02/10/...-and-pot-odds/



This topic is heavily theoretical, so tread with caution.

When a player reaches a certain amount of theoretical understanding of the game - pot odds, implied odds, equity, etc. - there's a very common, bordering on certain, pitfall of misunderstanding that almost everyone gets trapped by: The consequence of raising and giving yourself future pot odds.

As examples work best, let's try one, and let's give a fairly extreme one:
You're in the big blind, and you hold 3-2 suited. One player limps from middle position, the small blind completes and you can either check or raise. Do you raise?

No, you should never raise here. For virtually all players the idea of raising here is ridiculous - you clearly have an inferior hand and you should tag along to see the flop as cheaply as possible, hoping to spike a rare flush, straight or other very strong hand with your tiny cards.

Yet, I often read that raising in a situation similar to this is good, because "it will give you enough odds to pursue a draw." It's rarely mentioned as the sole reason to raise, but it's often mentioned as a secondary benefit. And this is the point I want to make today:

The fact that raising now will give you good odds later is <strong>not a reason to raise</strong>. There can be many reasons to raise, but affecting your future pot odds is not one of them. Let me give an example:

You're on the button with 4-4. Everyone limps to you (7 players) and you know that the blinds are loose and will likely call as well. Should you raise?
Yes, you could probably raise here. You are about 8.5-1 to hit your set on the flop, and you're getting immediate odds to make a raise here profitable (presuming that everyone who has called so far will call one more bet). An interesting consequence of this raise is that not only is it profitable (because your equity is likely greater than 10%, so every cent that you manage to get into the middle from all the others means a small profit for you), but it also means that unless it's at least two bets to you after the flop comes, you will have sufficient pot odds to call and try to hit your set on the turn as well:

The pot, if you call, on the flop will be 10 bets.

The pot, if you raise, on the flop will be 20 bets.

If someone bets (but no one raises) before you on the flop, you will then have at least 21-1 pot odds to call. This is usually enough to motivate seeing the turn for one more bet, given that at least two more people call the flop for one bet (your odds of hitting a set on the turn are 22.5-1). And yes, if these are your odds and you think your set will be good enough to win if you hit it, you should definitely call here. But, and this is the tricky part: The fact that your raise preflop gave you sufficient pot odds postflop is actually not a good thing for you. Because of the size of the pot, you're being forced to put another bet in on the flop, with poor equity.

You with me on that?

You raised preflop, because you figured to have a better equity on average than the others who had to call your bet.

You should frown on having to call a bet postflop, because you figure to have worse equity on average than the others who will call a bet.

You should still call postflop, because of the size of the pot, but you're doing so unhappily, because you know that for every dollar you invest at this point, someone else is getting the better of it. The fact that there's already a ton of money in the pot means that you need to keep fighting for it, because the dead money is there to fight over. But you want to pay as little as possible at this point, because the more you pay, the more someone else makes.

Hardly a trivial concept, but a very interesting one, and commonly misunderstood.

It's Friday night and I'm still at the office. Time to head out!
Have a great weekend!

/Fredrik

I undertand the mathmatics of this, but is it practical in a tourny? In a ring game you can always buy more chips and the long odds will eventually pay off. In a tourny your chips are limited though. Should I even consider future pot odds in a tourny or do you think it is best for ring games?

This is mostly just applicable to ring games; no-limit in general will not have this situation come up very often, but it's fairly frequent in limit games.