Betting: Sometimes, think less.

Alright, so the title is intentionally provocative and not really a good idea. But there is (not so) occasionally a tendency to overthink betting for value by thinking about what you should do if you get raised. Thinking ahead is good, in general, and avoiding avoidable difficult situations is good, in general. But, and this is where some seem to develop some fuzzy thinking, sometimes the value bet is so profitable in and by itself that it positively does not matter what you do when you get raised. Let me give an example:

Ignoring for a moment how you got here, you have AA on a 3-7-8-Q board and the river just fell another 8. Your opponent is an unknown. Pot is $30, and you have $100 left behind effectively. Should you bet versus an unknown?

Yes.

What if you get raised?

"Cross that bridge when you get to it."

If you start worrying about how you'll react to a raise and you somehow talk yourself into NOT betting, then maybe you're "avoiding a tough decision" but you're getting the easy decision wrong! Sometimes - often, even - the value in betting is simply so great that it flat out doesn't matter what you do when you get raised. Stack off, fold, whatever. It's possible that you have a leak when you get raised on the river but that does not excuse leaking like the Titanic when you have a solid value bet to make.

This is a good example (http://www.cardschat.com/f50/50-nl-he-full-ring-top-168384/) of what you do when you get raised mattering a great deal less than whether or not to bet. Yeah, versus some opponents you're happy to stack off when you get raised. And versus some other opponents you should probably start looking for a fold because they're never bluffing. But versus NEITHER of these opponent types is betting not massively +EV. (above hand chosen primarily for the situation, not necessarily because of comments made about it)

So, yeah, think ahead, plan your hand, prepare for all outcomes if you want - but don't screw up the easy decisions in the process.

(I'm guilty of this myself, occasionally)

I never think while playing. I just mash any button that doesn't have "Check" or "Fold" written on it. Then I rationalize my decisions a posteriori...

Nice point, though, FP. Also, hard decisions are typically decisions that don't really matter in the long term. They are hard because the EVs are similar whatever you decide. Otherwise they'd be easy. Focusing on the easy decisions is indeed where most people can improve their game.

Thank you for the insight F.P. and B.S. these are the types of tips which have allowed for real improvement in my game.

I may be wrong but I think not thinking = terrible I think you should always have a plan if what to do if x happens. I struggle with this sometimes when playing in real time but afterwards I often think of a better line when reviewing.

I think in your example I bet AA there but I would doing this knowing that i am either going to bet/call or bet/fold.

making these "difficult" decisions over and over is the best way to make things easier not by avoiding them imo.

Also in your example we should have some idea of villains hand/range before we put in a river value bet.

TD

Hrm. Great post FP. Now - as far as having a plan ahead of time - the only play you should have on this hand is to bet for value. IF you get raised, you get more information about the hand. If you don't get raised, you don't have another decision to make. But the amount of your bet (% of the pot you think will be called by an opponent with a hand like Tp or PP to pay you off) is really the only decision you have to make.

If you get raised, it's either an amount you can call or not - and based on how you've played this hand (raise Pre, bet every street), you're probably not going to have your villain calling you with an 8 with the hopes of sucking out on the river. Who knows? It's quite possible their flopped two pair just got counterfeited.

I agree the correct action is to bet. If you get raised, evaluate the hand and make your decision.

I still think you need to have a plan almost all the time, OPs example is a pretty trivial hand where betting for value is almost always going to be best so its never a mistake doing so.

But if you dont have a plan on other hands where its a much more difficult decision and needs much more thought you will end up missing value bets or spewing chips.

My main point was that imo thinking less whilst playing poker is a bad thing and bad advice, obv this is just my oppinion and I may well be wrong.

TD

All this talk about difficult decisions .... my hint on how to handle those: flip a coin and let fate decide. Most of the time, the game theory optimum when you face a "difficult decision" is to fold 40% and call 60% or call 40% and fold 60% of the time. It's nearly never fold 100% or call 100%. By flipping a coin you guarantee you'll be close to the optimal percentage while deciding on your own could unbalance your play to a point where it becomes super exploitable.

I don't think FP would argue against the value of thinking ahead at the table. Instead, FP is warning us not to think so much where we find ourselves playing a passive-- and therefore an exploitable-- game of poker. So yes, in general, thinking less is unwise, but overthinking and playing overly cautious is also unwise.

yeah i can see this point, now you mention it

Now that is a great point which deserves repetition.

I have previously remarked here at CC that Tournament Hand Analysis isn`t actually very interesting to more advanced tournament players. My reasoning is that, once one reaches a sufficient level of competence to be able to select a sensible line in most normal situations, the major opportunity for further improvement then lies in tournament strategy, not in the finer detail of a single obscure hand.

I didn`t get a great deal of support or understanding. Perhaps the only CC regular who would have instinctively understood the point was Irexes, and he has now ridden into the sunset. But perhaps also I didn`t express the point as clearly and succinctly as you have here. So, to repeat:

I think this is the point also. I have a friend, who I would consider very knowledgeable about poker. Notice I didn't say good at poker. He overthinks every decision, to the point that he is usually playing very passive. I doubt this happens to everyone, but it definitely makes me see where the op is coming from.

Good stuff FP I will remember this but I believe this only applies to one or two villains. At most three. When we have three or four villains and we dont look ahead to how to respond to raises I believe we would be spewing money in the long term.

the number of villains shouldnt matter... you should still look to think ahead, what if he check raises, what happens when the spade hits to complete the flush draw, what will i do then, but what hes saying is that, some players overthink and talk themselves into doing something stupid, like not betting when they should be

The point he's making guys is that sure you can think about what you're going to do if he raises. However, the real point is that just because he might raise, doesn't mean you shouldn't make the value bet. The value bet is +EV, so do it. Worry about the raise after.

Really solid thread FP. But please think about doing more posts like this. They are golden!

exactly.

Champion! Nice post.

I am completely guilty of this type of over thinking. Especially, at the standard BI tables online.

I think I "clam up" sometimes for fear that I could fold if raised. I don't know what that means really... but I got CLAM and FEAR into the same sentence. That can't be good...

I usually have enough information in front of me that there isn't a hard decision if I get reraised. I'll call down the lose players with bad river win rates and only fold to the tightness of players. A 1/3 pot bet on the river to collect a call from the medium group players with KQ whatever they may have is fine. Seems to work over the long run.

-Raymond

Thanks FP! Very nice post. This thread is money people... so true

Since reading this post a few weeks ago I've made a handful of river bets that I otherwise wouldn't have. Had a few people shove over the top of me which I mostly folded to but assuming a reasonable percentage of them had hands that beat me, your advice has made me money. Admittedly, micro stakes pocket change, but bb/100 all the same.

Coincidentally, just watched a short Daniel Negreanu instructional video within the last few days. It was about making good decisions. To try to summarize his position:

First, consider your initial feeling or gut instinct on how to react.

Second, think the entire hand through considering all the info you have.

Last, if all things are close to being equal on the first 2, go with your original instinct.

Sounds to me after watching it, he goes with his initial instinct most of time.

Sounds easy, but then I'm not Daniel Negreanu.

Any one who has read and understands Tommy Angelo's "Elements of Poker" would understand and agree with you.