bet/folding a scary river instead of check/calling

i was thinking about value in akward hands today, like where we make a flush or straight on the flop/turn, only to have the board pair on the river. my usual gameplan would be check/call here - but are we missing out on value than if we were to value bet/fold instead?

Good question. I think it depends mostly on which card has paired the board, for starters. If it's a board like K-T-9-4-4, it's unlikely someone has a full house and your straight or flush is still probably the best hand.

If, instead its Q-J-8-4-J, a board where someone might just have made a full house, I think it depends mostly on how the hand was played through out. Sometimes your check/calling would be the proper way, IMO, even if you might lose value.

I don't think that you can play in that spot the same way every time.

F Paulsson wrote in the blog section a very interesting article on this subject that I suggest you read.

I agree, the way the hand was played is important. in the K-T-9-4-4 example say i raise X4 BB and get a "cold" caller i cannot put him on a full house here even quads would be hard if i bet on the flop.

But if i limp in and he's on the big blind and i try to slow play a flush on the flop he's likely to stay in a hand with 2 pair and catch his full house.

Each hand has to be analysed and compared - person, position, your table image etc to determine what you can do here.

I'm an optimist and would have confidence in what the right move would be.