Beluga theorem wonder

Hey guys,

So I'm standing in the shower this morning just thinking about poker and its magnificence when I thought of something. According to the beluga theorem "Basically, the whole point of the "Baluga theorem", as I see it, is to strongly reevaluate one-pair hands facing a turn raise," or I always understood it as that a turn raise almost always means that the person has at least top pair beaten.

Recently I posted an hand here like this:

blondy944 (SB): $1.45
xgmmx (BB): $37.90
npnstuff (UTG): $11.20
Hero (MP): $11.55
Fiero GT-87 (CO): $7.35
circuitjohn (BTN): $0.95

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is MP with A ♣ K ♣
1 fold, Hero raises to $0.30, Fiero GT-87 calls $0.30, 2 folds, xgmmx calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.95) K ♠ J ♦ 7 ♠ (3 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $0.60, Fiero GT-87 folds, xgmmx calls $0.60

Turn: ($2.15) Q ♣ (2 players)
xgmmx checks, Hero bets $1.70, xgmmx raises to $4, Hero ???



to which i got replies back from Sly and C9 saying to fold because of the beluga theorem.
Ok so now to what I was wondering. If the beluga theorem says that usually villain has something that beats top pair, does that mean that they will rarely fold to a shove? Consider this example:

View hand 560191
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

Sveno1987 (SB): $16.00
MG1801 (BB): $34.35
Sidekick44 (UTG): $7.70
freestyleoob (CO): $2.55
Hero (BTN): $25.05

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with K K
1 fold, freestyleoob raises to $0.35, Hero raises to $1.10, 1 fold, MG1801 calls $1

Flop: ($2.60) K J 7 (3 players)
Hero bets $2.00, MG1801 calls $2

Turn: ($6.60) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets $5.00, MG1801 raises to $10.00

Final Pot: $16.60

The guy flats my bet on the flop and now is raising me on a brick? looks like a set to me or maybe the guy even has aces... so am I right in saying that if i shove here most likely he'll call?

or what about a situation like this:

Poker Stars $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em - 6 players - View hand 560195
The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

nikborzoy (MP): $10.00
Leolo L. (CO): $9.20
Samuel_0991 (BTN): $30.40
Hero (SB): $20.90
Rock4Rock (BB): $13.00
karasss1313 (UTG): $15.15

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is SB with J A
3 folds, Samuel_0991 raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.90, 1 fold, Samuel_0991 calls $0.70

Flop: ($1.90) Q K 4 (2 players)
Hero bets $1.40, Samuel_0991 calls $1.40

Turn: ($4.70) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets $3.00, Samuel_0991 raises to $9.00



would it be a good idea to just shove here instead of flat calling and hopefully get hit him to bet the river?

tl;dr: if we're beluga'd on the turn will villain always call a shove?

I jam both since his made hands slowdown if the flush hits the river

With that much money in the pot in both of those hands you have to assume he'd call a shove. No point in waiting until river to get it all in.

yea, a shove if the right play here as the pot size in relation to ur stacks is too big to just call. besides, if u weigh up how many times they have a hand there gonna fold in these spots against how many times there calling allin drawing dead, its a jam both times. Interesting theory though. it makes a lot of sense. A good theory to work from when playing ABC poker. dont think this would work out too well at the nosebleed stakes.

Pretty much - the plan behind a baluga from Villain's point of view (even if they've never heard of this theorem) is to get your stack in the middle w his set/2 pr/whatever, so...

Note - baluga applies to a turn c/r, so Hero's in position and Villain's oop, as in the AKo hand.

A turn raise by Villain in position is certainly strong, but not as strong as the c/r. In position, we have more options than when we're baluga'd, including calling and shoving over a river bet - but I agree w everyone else that the latter two hands are good to shove on the turn, half the deck (diamonds and hearts) will kill action on the river in the first hand and another spade kills action in the second (and nobody raises there without a set or a made flush anyhow, he's not going to fold).

Wait...So are you saying that most of the times when I re-raise at the turn with nothing, people will actually fold because of some poker language that says I've got absolute nuts???
But if people are aware of this won't they use it to their advantage?I don't think that poker is a stable science, this game will keep on evolving as long as it is played (in my opinion).

If people start seeing you checkraise the turn all the time then- against even marginal players- you will begin to see your stack evaporate.

The theory is basically it takes a big hand, or a big bluff, or a retard, to check raise the turn.

Yes the game is constantly evolving and changing, but there are certain things that are kind of constant and observant players can take advantage of obvious mistakes like continuous bluff checkraises on the turn.

Yeah, the guy who came up w the theorem, BalugaWhale, pointed out that if you're ever playing him and he doesn't know you, he's very bluffable to a turn c/r.

As you develop histories w people, you start to get suspicious of c/r's when they're too frequent - some people do baluga bluff - but against an unknown, it's almost always a big hand.

Yeah, I can attest to this. I just Balugad a guy on the turn (I turned the nut straight), 3rd diamond came on river, villain pushed - I had to call at that point, of course he rivered the flush. I think the meta game behind this is that if you're the one doing the Baluga on the turn, you really don't want to give up the hand on the river. (And you're usually pretty much pot committed by that point.) So the moral of the story is yes, they will usually call a river shove, I know I did.