Anyone care to come up with a theorem name for these plays?

So I am reviewing some old 50NL hand analysis and I ran across this hand (http://www.cardschat.com/f50/50-nl-he-full-ring-kk-152864/)from May of last year. In the following example, the villains were listed as very fishy the 54/40/2 type.

Poker Stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
Hand History Converter by Stoxpoker

MP2: $54.85 (109.7 bb)
MP3: $49.75 (99.5 bb)
CO: $57.70 (115.4 bb)
Hero (BTN): $63.60 (127.2 bb)
SB: $25.80 (51.6 bb)
BB: $38.20 (76.4 bb)
MP1: $16.60 (33.2 bb)

Pre-Flop: Hero is BTN with K♣ K♠
MP1 raises to $2, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $2, CO folds, Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, MP1 calls $6, MP3 calls $6

Flop: ($24.75) 6♥ Q♠ 9♦ (3 players)
MP1 bets $1, MP3 calls $1, Hero raises to $6, MP1 raises to $8.60 and is all-in, MP3 raises to $13.60, Hero

Given that hero has top pair on the flop and the nonsensical limping/betting that has preceeded, many of us would choose to shove here. Would anyone disagree and apply the following thought to this situation?

"When the flop has been four bet it is safe to say that top pair top kicker is no longer good no matter the bet sizing and villain type." This is a rule of thumb that my experience stands by and I am sure someone has described this much more eloquently than I have. Is there a name for such a theorem?

I shall call it the if-you-fold-you're-wasting-money theorem.

We should never be folding any flop without an Ace here. There is $24 in the pot preflop and the largest effective stack has ~$40 left, that's an SPR under 2. Folding an overpair with a SPR that low is a pretty huge mistake.

Someone has a set weather its 9's or Q's its possible they both hit a set but I'm guessing set of 9's and AQ suited. I still can't fold here but I'm pretty sure were beat. Although I had a similar hand posted here were I had KK and after the flop player shoves all in on a 8 high board I actually folded and player had a set of 2's.

Easy shove.

Only way you could fold is if you were against opponents who would absolutely never bluff or ever think TPTK was good here. If your opponents really wouldn't be willing to stack a hand like TPTK against you here then you're not 3betting them enough and you've got way too much credibility.

3bet, 3 way pot. The pot is huge, you can't fold.

Considering you have TWO people in this pot already, I think the 'safe' thing to do is fold.
Either one of the villains might have a set.
Considering the stakes you were playing at, this could be a crazed player on a draw of some kind BUT 2 crazed players is probably unlikely.

Now all that being said it is only gonna to cost you another $5 to see the next card and possibly win a $30 pot.

Sometimes you have to go for it.

Tell us what happened.
Did you call, raise or fold?

are you suggesting folding an overpair against two fish getting almost 8-1? WTF

They don't need to be fish.

Against almost any opponent it's an auto shove.

Why are you raising to 8 dollars preflop, but only 6 postflop against two people? IMO, postflop raise is too small. Personally I don't want two callers with only one pair, regardless of what pair. IMO, the raise should be to at least 16 dollars(about 2/3 of pot).

I'd be shoving here. What's going on with those flop bets?

I thought your flop bet was specifically to induce MP1 to shove, only reason I could come up with for bothering to bet that small, and he basically had to shove anything that hit the board, or any decent poket pair, or any two overs for the size of the pot vs his money at that point. If MP3 has a monster here he's flatting and letting you go over the top, since you'd already shown aggression and people love to try to trap. His raise makes it pretty clear he's trying to scare you out. I raise it to about 24 or so, to make a weaker hand feel like it has to call, or maybe shove. And snap call his jam, or stick it in myself on any turn, and then weep openly when MP3 somehow shows up with AA.

Not so much a theorem but a law - a variation of Murphy's Law that usually states that if it can go wrong, it will go wrong:

If you call they have a set; if you fold they have a queen.

Hm I think I should have mentioned in the OP that this was not my hand but another CC members hand from a long time ago. Maybe this was a bad example because of the stack sizes but in general I believe 4bets on a flop should send Al Qaeda type red alerts. Even a fish knows top pair is no good at this point.


I would have raised to $15 on the flop against tighter players or if it was a wet board but against fish on a dry board I throw out $12. At this point I would be committed but given the low flop raise and how it was played I think I would have folded. It will cost me another $35 to win about $120. Do I have over 25% equity here? I think I chalk up the $14 invested as an L and move on.

I am having a hard time understanding why everyone is lobbying for the shove. While MP1 getting his little 8.60 in after two bets is a small concern, that combined with MP3 raising again signals that there is an over 75% chance someone has two pair or better. That last raise is almost MP3 asking us to shove because he has a set.

Why is MP3 raising? Sets and two pair are certainly in his range. He could also be looking to isolate the ss, he could have TPTK or TPGK, he could be semibluffing JT, he could be semibluffing 78...

With the SPR ratio as WV says, the pot odds are too good for us to fold an overpair here. We don't need to win this every time we make this play to show a profit - just enough to beat the pot odds, which here is less than 1/3 of the time with an SPR < 2. This is not always a set (AQ easily explains MP3's play), and some non-zero percent of the time MP3 will fold to a shove, which also helps.

Make stacks deep (which would change the SPR) and we'd be less interested.

I was gonna type the same thing slycbnew .
MP3 play is so wide we have no clue on what to do. He could have set (flat calling 3bets preflop) or semi bluffing (78,JT) or he could have TPTK (AQ and wants to protect, he could think u have AK etc...)
But crazy on what to do but i'd probs follow suit as most ppl and have to go with the odds and shove my stack in with an overpair hopin sum1 has either TPTK (AQ) or on a draw....

What were the results OP??? Intresting thread

If you are looking for a short name if you fold on the flop you can call it "jackassery".

I would have raised more to like 1/2 the pot than $6 when they were putting out their $1 feeler / blocker bets.

-Raymond

I think the question here is why is MP3 donk feel betting than mini raising after two raises? We have to have 25%+ equity against whatever range he is 4betting with for this to be +EV. Maybe I am just being stubborn since all of you have more experience than me but I am shocked that no one else is even considering a call or fold.

If you follow the link on top, it will take you to the original hand.

Umm the link to the CC post doesn't have an answer? Do you know the results or am I just completely missing the correct link?

Knowing the way Jake was playing back then he likely folded.

If you review the responses to Jurn8's original hand, you'll see the same responses as here - get it in.

My earlier post was intended to provide a range that justifies MP3 calling and then raising with a range that is broader than a set.

I plugged a few ranges into pokerstove:

99-QQ, AQ, JT, 78 - our equity is 68%.

ONLY the 3 sets and AQ - our equity is 50%.

The only way our equity is less than 25% is if you specifically put MP3 on a set - then our equity is only 10%.

The only way we should fold is if Villain flips up his cards and shows us his set. The flop action does not do that.

BLieve's GottaCallKnowI'mBeat Conjecture?

there is no way you can fold against these stats

BLieve,

In attempt to actually explain stuff rather than giving one line answers that don't actually help (which I've been a little guilty of), I'll try again.

Basically the advice you've gotten in this thread is very good. "Never fold, shove" is the right answer.
You may be beaten, in fact, you frequently will be. However we can discount MP1's shove because he has to do that with anything. It's MP3 that we're worried about, MP3 by going over the top of MP1's raise has shown that he has a hand he's willing to take to showdown against MP1's wide range, he has also indicated that he thinks he is ahead of you and wants you to either fold or pay to outdraw him. All he needs to beat MP1 is a Q or pocket pair higher than 9's, hell, 7's might do.

So MP1 is essentially irrelivant, his range is weak, a long way behind yours. His being all in also has a lower requirement for MP3 to be willing to go to showdown against him than against you, so his being all in doesn't strengthen MP3's range at all. Instead, all we're worried about is what MP3 thinks of your range.

You 3bet pre-flop and even on the button your range is fairly strong unless you've got a wide 3betting range. AQ+/TT+, assuming you're relatively unknown, any Q is ahead of this range and not going anywhere fast, he's slightly ahead of you and has MP1 basically donating to the pot.
Even with fishy stats, MP3 can easily put you AK/AJ or TT/JJ, in fact, since he is a loose fish, he's simply not letting go of top pair in such a big pot, ever. You 3bet pre-flop and he hit top pair, he likes his hand very much.

This assumes you have a tight 3betting range.

Even against fish if you widen your 3betting range (and you should, if they're loose you should be 3betting quite wide for value and if they're weak tight you should be 3betting air quite a lot), they will notice. One of the few things fish actually notice is aggressiveness. Put yourself in his shoes, some random bloke keeps raising pre-flop and betting most flops, you spike top pair and you're playing for stacks, this agro idiot has been making everyone fold and now you're going to stack him. You're not folding a Q, and neither is he.

An overpair is good often enough to make the call.

You have $49 effective stacks and there is a $42 pot, you need to be ahead a little more than 1/3 of the time, and you are. It's a matter of calling or shoving, either way stacks are going in so just shove.

Either one or both villains have top pair. One of them may be open-ended.

This is an easy shove.

As stated, you're getting 8:1 on your money. Even if you ran into Q9 (a hand I'm on record for saying "this hand is JT" you have 2 Ks, 3 6's, and a running pair to improve you. If you're up against a set, we have a case of monster vs monster and unfortunately OP is monster #2. If we're not up against a set, we're a huge favorite.

78 is a possibility here, and you're still being drawn against. The likelihood of you being behind here is low enough that I'm happy to stack off here.

This is -
1: A dream flop for KK
2: Wonderful action for a hand you're likely to take 2 stacks with.

You risk one stack to get two. If you hit a set it's proper poker etiquette to pay them off - unless you have some sick read knowing it's a set.

AQ is shoving too often here, thank them and be on your way with their chips.

And quite frankly if you're opponent is still drawing against you, thank them and be on your way. If they have JT you're holding two of their outs.

If they have 78 they're still drawing.

You only must worry about Q9, QQ, 99, and 66. AA isn't an impossibility, but it would be a very poorly played AA at that, and against a set or AA you're still having two sweet delicious outs... or of course a running J and T.

Sorry no idea what the results are.

Thank you PokerKid this is a very good explanation. We were never worried about MP1 it is MP3 that would have me hesitating. Considering a AQ or even KQ would never be folded and we have 50% equity according to Sly, then I guess this is shove city all day.

since posting and reading
Dealing with over Aggressive opponents
i feel my game has gone up two-folds
1.because i had enough of the donks lucking out on me
2.makes it easier to bluff

NOW THE ONLY PROBLEM I FEEL IM HAVING is that im taking down pots to early and not getting enough value/profit from my hands. i'll post a coup[le hands 4 everyone.