| This is a discussion on Anatomy of a Flush Draw Chase within the online poker forums, in the Cash Games section; We all come across loose villians that pick up their flush draws from time to time, but are they really crazy when it comes to ... |
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| Anatomy of a Flush Draw Chase We all come across loose villians that pick up their flush draws from time to time, but are they really crazy when it comes to chasing these draws? I put some situational variables into a hand evaluator to find out and open it up for discussion. First we'll use a hand where villian has: 9hTh Flop comes out: Ah Ts 5h Probabilities at this point: ![]() By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 70% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes on the turn he's still left with 48% for the river. Next we'll change the flop to give the villian a little less equity to see the numbers. Villian has: 9hTh Flop comes out: Ah 8s 5h Probabilities at this point: ![]() By the river the villian has a combination of probabilities that equal a 46% chance to take out your AJ+ hand if he decides to chase his draws should your hand not improve along the way. If a brick comes for the villian on the turn he has 33% chance of still beating your hand on the river. Discussion Questions 1) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 1st situation? 2) What do you think of draw chasing with the chances on the 2nd situation? 3) Do you go balls deep when playing these kind of hands? If so, is it a specific situation from above? Personally, I haven't looked at the probability numbers for these situations until now and have played tight and folded by the turn if there was no improvement. Which in the case of the first hand, it looks like I was making a big mistake by folding the turn. Am I crazy to now think that the loose players aren't so dumb for calling hands like these down to the river (especially the 1st one)? |
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| No, they're still dumb most of the time though there is some merit to "flush draw+pair arrr-in!" in some situations. Swap the positions and say you have the 9hTh on the first flop. What if villain has AhJh? You're crushed right? Just because a villain will improve past TP a certain percentage doesn't change the way we should play our hands. We need to value bet if we have the most equity right now. With TP on that board vs a loose passive then we need to value bet every single time, he'll call with J9 not just his monster draws. If the turn changes the board texture and strengthens his hand range then we can think about checking. As for how I would play the 9hTh hand, it depends on my opponent, but in general quite strongly, but I'm an aggro tard We have a fair amount of equity right now against pretty much anything even if he has Ax we're like 30%. I know it sounds strange I'm talking about both sides in quite opposite ways and my ramble doesn't make a lot of sense to me but I hope you understand what I'm saying. |
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Actually very good stuff here, I hope you get lots of feedback. Remember when chasing non-nut flush draws that you could hit your flush and lose to a bigger one. Also depending on stakes getting extremely aggressive with flush draws may not be +EV as you need villain to fold often enough to make that 36% equity payoff. Also another thing to bear in mind is that when you face extreme aggression on a 4 flush board you are often up against a set trying to protect their hand so hitting 2 pair may not give you the winning hand at showdown. I think position is very important on Flush draws as you get to act after your opponent. If you have the draw but are OOP villain can re-raise you if you c-bet or check behind as well. Ideally you would rather have AhTh on a As5h8h draw giving you top pair and the nut flush draw. Obviously the more outs you have the more aggro you can be with your draw. King high flush draws are nice when the A is part of the draw which will happen about 16% of the time as you then have the nut flush draw but 84% of the time you are drawing to the 2nd nut flush so you really want to have position here. Anyway very nice post! |
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| re: Anatomy of a Flush Draw Chase poker Quote:
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Last edited by TorreyB : 10th March 2011 at 4:55 PM. |
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| This is such a great exercise for any poker player to do. Most players these days just pokerstove a range, and whilst they end up knowing the equities involved there is little understanding of the actual way its arrived at. Having said that using stove is a great resourse, but should'nt be used exclusively. |
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He does not have a 70% chance of winning if he is against Ax. Most of the 2 pair hands will be counter fitted by Ax, i.e. you make 2 pair, he makes trips, you make 2 pair he makes a higher 2 pair. His equity in the hand against Ax is 50% |
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Instead of using a point of view based of PokerStove (which is what we normally do and learn from), this is another perspective to try and make sense as to why loose players will call us down sometimes. We always feel a little tilted when they turn over 2 pair or better with some ridiculous hand and we're holding AK or some other monster hand. Showing villian's mathematical chances for hand improvement vs ours might tell a different story that doesn't make them so crazy after all. Can anyone let me know if what I've been posting makes any sense to you? ------- I'll give another example in this post that defines both hands. Hero's Hand: AsKd Villian's Hand 9hTh Flop: Ah Ts 5h PokerStove Equity Results: 49.899% (AsKd) vs. 50.101% (9hTh) Probability Results for the Hero: ![]() Probability Results for the Villian: ![]() PokerStove tells us equity wise it's a coin flip from the flop. Probability for hand improvement on each person's hand tells a different story. The chaser against the TAG with AK is miles ahead of the hero when it comes to hand improvement probability on future streets. The best way to put it is, the TAG hero becomes an easily trapped spewing ATM for the loose villian. |
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Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 990 games 0.001 secs 990,000 games/sec Board: 2s 4s Qh Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 50.202% 50.20% 00.00% 497 0.00 { AcAd } Hand 1: 49.798% 49.80% 00.00% 493 0.00 { KsQs } That's the reason he did it and the only reason. Even in the worst case range the dead money makes it profitable. Plus Barry isn't unknown to do some crazy stuff, he's no nit. Text results appended to pokerstove.txt 11,880 games 0.001 secs 11,880,000 games/sec Board: 2s 4s Qh Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 61.515% 61.52% 00.00% 7308 0.00 { AA, 44, 22 } Hand 1: 38.485% 38.48% 00.00% 4572 0.00 { KsQs } |
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| re: Anatomy of a Flush Draw Chase poker Quote:
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| You still havent explained why a villian would be chasing 2pair in the first scenario. PS gives an equity of 50% in that situation because thats the chances of you improving and winning. You are quoting a figure of 70% (which I can see where it comes from) but do you really think villian is thinking anything other than FLUSH DRAW FLUSH DRAW FLUSH DRAW as if he makes 2 apir with anything other than the 9 he dosent improve at all. If he makes 2 pair with anything other than a 9 he dosent beat a single hand his weak second pair no kicker didnt beat before it improves to 2 pair. So again, what your point? Why would villian be correct to chase this draw when we factor in all the 2pair hands he will improve to and still loose? Can we blame villian for calling down 3 streets, improving to a dominated 2 pair and losing his stack.. yes we can blame him, but we wont hold it against him as its good for us. |
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