Analyse my 10nl FR stats please!!

Hey dudes,

So i've just accepted that even though variance has been quite the bitch to me during my time there, some blame must lay at my feet for my meh results at 10nl FR.

Below are my stats over the 40k~ hands i have in my current DB, have included as much as I think needs to be but ofc if you would like anymore stats or filters ran then please just ask.

I'm ready for quitting poker or grinding out 5nl as a hobby for the rest of my days as this is starting to piss me off now, so I would REALLY appreciate any help or advice that anyone can give me.

I seem to crush 5nl but 10nl is the wall for me and i've just had consistently shit results!



Thanks for any advice you can give

You are not 3betting enough from CO+

You arent being selective with your cbetting, especially from the SB, your stealing 40% and cbetting 60%. If your steals are profitable from the SB then your cbets cant be profitable and vice versa.

Those are the biggest 2 that stand out to me.

Thanks for the quick reply, done a filter for in the SB and PFR = true



Doesnt look like im having issues there, is there a better filter to run for looking at this?

EDIT: I suppose that includes value hands as well though.

I still think you are cbetting too much from the SB

I also think your graph includes all the times you 3bet and / had a premium hand.

Why not filter out all the times you have JJ+AQ+ and all the times you 3bet.

Filtered for in SB, PFR = True, 3bet = False, all hands minus JJ+ AQ+

Bet bigger from the Sb then

I would cbet a fair bit more, steal quite a bit more and play more hands in position. Only real things that jumped out to me.

Edit: could 3bet a bit more too.

Also steal more often.

What I thought was happening was that you were opening wide because you expected to get folds, but if thats the case you would expect your win without SD to be lower.

As its high, people are calling really wide and still folding to cbets.

Therefore steal even more and make SB raise size bigger.

Am I right in thinking you check OOP with weak made hands but will bluff with nothing?

Was hoping you would explain what you meant by bet bigger lol thats definitely a fair point, i open 3x from the SB and BTN when stealing, 4x everywhere else in general

I would say you are right in thinking that, like TPmeh-GK I probably c/c OOP, whereas IP i'd be betting for value and to charge any draws, underpairs or randoms that want to c/c OOP.

Open 3.5x from SB (your money is comming from being called and cbetting)

Be more agressive from the CO oop then.

look at it like this when you cbet after stealing from either the SB you are guaranteed to be OOP.

In the SB your cbetting 60% and doing that with a 40% range.

In the CO your cbetting 60% and doing that with a range that is almost twice as strong as the SB and you have position most of the time.

It therefore stands to reason that you are not value betting enough in the CO and bluffing too much in the SB.

However the bluffing seems to be working, so why C/C hoping to get a weak hand to SD when betting is showing a big profit?

If you look at your bb/100 in the SB and take off the 50bb you are forced to post in that position, your winrate from the SB is higher than from the Co, where you have position fairly frequently and a much stronger range.

So be more agro postflop from the CO.

Concentrate on your play from the blinds. Your loss rates from both blind positions are too high. Looks to me (as compared to my stats anyway) that you're playing too tight from both blinds. For comparison my BB loss rate is 42bb/100 and the SB is 24bb/100.

I'd steal a bit more from CO and way more from the BTN.

Also had this put into the stats thread on 2p2, for the benefit of others looking at this for pointers on how their stats are I will put the reply that I got there too, also this might fuel a bit of discussion from the guys here too.

I'm off to bed now, will respond to points that I haven't addressed tomorrow, thanks for the advice from everyone so far though, much appreciated

Suprising a solid reply from 2+2. Shock.
Being a 6max play i'd say you're playing too tight in late positions and i'd 3bet a lot more. ATM you're only 3betting like JJ+, AKo+. I'd open up a bit and depending on villian and original position of raiser 3bet like [AQs, JJ] , AKo+, QQ+, 55-77, and a few SC's. The ones in brackets are a bit more situation dependant but if someone opens in HJ or CO i'd probably 3bet them.
Oh yeah and some good replys in here too. <3 CC

He's playing FR not 6-max.

Yeah, I like this analysis.

One thought that may also be dangerous; I tend to vary my game more at 10nl than at other levels (most of my db is 25nl) because the range of opponents varies more frequently and wider. Actually, now that I think of it, I vary it even more at 2nl when I sit there to increase my tables, set up HUDs, ect., so generally wider range the lower the level. What I'm trying to say is that my VPIP/PRF gap is wider at 10nl than 25nl because 10nl players give me more opportunities to call their minraises and multiway pots with a wider range than is useful at 25 and higher. And wider than your gap between the two. Just a thought.


btw, you say that you were more successful at 5nl; how do these stats compare with your 5nl stats?

I don't KNOW the answer here but I'd be willing to bet that his blind losses and hence NSD winnings are MUCH better.

http://img407.imageshack.us/img407/7006/5nlstats.jpg

Aye, the "i'm a 6max player" was a disclaimer kind of thing.
However on this note i'm interested to know if FR players should play the last 6 positions in FR the same they should when they play 6max (obv. not 3betting people opening early positions).

In essence the 2 games should play the same when the first 3 positions are folded in FR.

The blinds should be a little more agressive than in FR because the amount paid in blinds in bb/100 is higher in 6max than FR so you cant wait as long for a hand. However it dosent mean that they need to be insanely aggressive.

You cbet the CO more in those stats


Do the same filter as before for the SB, (no premiums, no 3bet etc)

I'd say apart from this, there isnt much difference to my play from 5nl to 10nl.

So can i def say that I have not over-adjusted whilst moving up, but instead have just found a harder game??

Ok so the difference is that you are winning more at SD here than before.

Try and figure out i that's because you are getting to SD more often with things like Ace High and they are the best hand, or if your just able to value bet a wider range.

That was for the SB btw, did you mean over all positions?

So maybe im missing value from people when i play from the SB @ 10nl, b/c my sd winnings arent as high?

Just look for differences.

Ultimately stats are irrelivent.

They are just clues that help you refine your thought process.

Ultimately this will boil down to you not value betting enough and bluffing in bad spots.

There is a difference in your SD winnings from the SB between the 2 limits, why is that? SD winnings mean you get to SD, so is it easier to get to SD at 2nl than 5nl? or is it that when you get to SD at 2nl the payoff is bigger than 5nl?
Are they calling you down lighter or is it that you are just getting to SD more often, i.e. they dont bluff or dont value bet.

this is gonna sound shitty(knowing our history), but surely after 40k hands and pretty much BE, shouldnt you be thinking about changing your game, which I guess you are, right? Personally I would have started to do something about it at least 30k and more probably 25k.

Does sound really shitty man.

Peeleo has been working on it since hand 1 of 40k, so there is no reason to say you would of started to do something about it after 30k or 25k hands, its really not unusual to b/e over 25k hands even when playing really good poker and i guess he has waited till 40k hands to post stats because 40k hands is probably the absolute minimum before you can get anything meaningful from stats.

@Peeleo

How's it going now? Have you loosened up massively from the btn and co, them two stuck out the most.

Make sure you're betting rivers enough, most people check back when they could get value because theyre scared of shit, bet fold is often better than check/fold or checking and winning when you could of put a 1/4 pot bet and got some more value etc.

Still think you should stop worrying about any kind of stats, and especially crap like redline. Play hands, post them, do some sweats etc.

3bet is a bit on the tight side but it's not terrible and wouldnt turn you in to a crushing player if you turned into a 3bet monkey or anything, maybe just take advantage of some loose mp opening regs from time to time but i dont think changing your 3bet game is gonna have much of an effect.

The spots that im guessing are costing you are not gonna show in stats analysis, so we would just need to see more and more hands. I still wanna have another sweat session sometime but for longer this time as we didn't see any interesting spots last time.

I know you love double barelling so why not post like 5 random hands where you double barelled with stats (but not obvious tptk against 71/1 double barrels) I could imagine a few bad double barrels ever 1k or so hands seriously hurting your WR and redline, just an idea.

Nice post Acky!

Peelie, you're going to succeed cos you are putting in the hours and actively working on your game. Don't let pointless negative comments get in the way.

he is? by posting this?

Your on ignore btw so the only reason your getting a reply is b/c people have quoted you.

The graph on the left is my 5nl hands that I have, 24 tabling mostly, notice the 13k hand b/e stretch at the beginning of a 40k hand sample where i beat it for 9.5bb/100.

The graph on the right is my 10nl hands, people have already said that my stats are pretty much identical, so i brought the exact same game that i beat 5nl with to 10nl and in the beginning started off well-ish, up like 8 bi's over 25k hands and like 8 bi -ev, running pretty shit but on the up (so at this point you say i should have thought about changing my game??) at the 30k point, another point where you would have definetly noted that you should change your game, i'm still up and plenty below ev, it still kinda looks like i'm running a bit bad, nothing to worry about though. 20k hands later, after dropping amt of tables from 20 to 12, I have levelled out at the bottom of a 12k d/swing and decide that it can't all be about bad luck, there must be something more to it and decide to get my stats looked at.

While fgators cried for 1.5m hands that he was running bad and done nothing to fix it, i whinged about runbad for 40k hands and decided to get some help.

And telling someone that they've took too long to recognise they need to change something, sounds hilarious coming from someone whos been a forum member since some of our members were <13 years old.....and is still pissing about in the micros grinding out $100 deposit bonuses at 2nl and playing freerolls.

During that 40k hands at 10nl i have changed a lot about my game, by self-review and analysis, its just recently that i've decided to ask for other peoples advice.

Hope I didnt come across as too shitty.

Awesome reply mate, just about to have some dinner but thought i'd get an acknowledgement to you lol will save your post and look at the other things you have talked about but re: how its gone since then.

Only about 3 sessions and obv small sample, but i'm kinda re-inventing how i play poker, gonna keep my filter set to after I changed and keep track of how i'm doing, make sure i'm not just spewing in some spots, but so far its not going too bad




Like i said, small sample but im making a concious effort to change things as I'm playing now, have also dropped down to 8 tables max and using your advice on table selection a bit more, will have to see how this looks after like 10k, 30k etc hands