Am I good enough to COMFORTABLY beat 10NL?

Hey guys, I'd like to post some data on my play that I have gathered over the last month or so. I have begun to play 6max and have had much success so far, building up quite a comprehensive strategy for most spots I often come across and plugging a lot of leaks. I have drasticly reduced the volume that I play and now pretty much limit myself to 2 hours per day playing 4 tables of 5NL on stars. I have better balance in my life, am happier and feel I play better.

I got the impression that its the multitable microstakes HUDbots that end up staying at microstakes. I am now a firm believer in less is more, even though I realise it can now take 2-3 months to build up a solid sample!

My BR stands at about $210 and I want to move up to 10NL. I am familiar the Peter Principle. I'd sooner be a kick-ass 5NL beast than just another frustrated break even 10NL reg and want to use this post to get a little feedback on my stats and perhaps some insight as to a few more areas of improvement before I make the leap.

I think I have got the basics down pretty well now. My weak areas are:

• Dealing with donk betters
• River value betting.
• Finding GOOD set mining spots.
• WA/WB spots.
• Playing 3-bet pots post flop.

Any obvious bad numbers or thoughts on my weak areas?

Thanks in advance, Frank

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Move up NOW !!!

Move up bro.,.stats look really solid....10NL isn't really any different from 5NL. You'll be fine

That's a pretty sick graph tbf, even at 5nl

Christ! How do you maintain 18/16 at 5NL? Even at 6max?

With so many chasers at the micro-stakes level, I find it tough to profitably PFR. At 10NL, I lose so much post flop that I can't justify PFR's so regularly. So many crap chasers draw out on me in avg+sized pots that normal raise/cbet strat seems useless. I run about 22/10 at 10NL FR and 20/12 at 6max. Maybe I'm doing something wrong.

Hey Frank. Plz give us some tidbits on how you play.

Tidbits eh, well I should start by making it pretty clear that my general play is VERY flawed and post-flop I do spew shitloads. My pre-flop play is far more solid however so by the time the first three board cards come, I am usually in pretty good shape, and position relative to by opponenet.

I am quite a methodical player. I have made and use my own charts, starting hand charts, tables, graphs etc. I have them coming out of my earholes and believe a solid default strategy is a the best basepoint far most pre-flop plays. I then use strategy that I have built up to make adjustments depending on how their stats differ from the average at the stake in the particular situation, plus stack sizes and my table image etc.

I limit myself to 2 hours per day and only play 4 tables of 5NL 6max. Never more. This gives me plenty of time to devise a different plan for each of my 20 opponents, to think about their individual weaknesses and to make adjustment to exploit them.

I play within my bankroll. Scared money is losing money. You must never be afraid to shove all your cash when you believe you have 60% equity. If you are then you need to drop down a level as your aggression and profitability will be compromised.

You should always have the means, motive and opportunity before you sit down to play and the self control to quit when either of these are not present. As I type this post I have the means to play and a good 90 minutes of spare time ahead but I know within myself that I have not got the drive to really get in there and fu.ck it up. You know when you don't have 100% focus. Having the discipline to say NO when its not right to play will save you much money and the cash you don't lose spends just as well as the money you win.

Above all I think my biggest breakthrough was learning to rationalise variance and just smile when something like the following happens:

View hand 1176173
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

SB: $9.78
BB: $10.10
UTG: $10.00
MP: $7.84 This guy was a 53/20 with a steal of 33 over 55 hands. His fold to 3bet was 1/2, he C/R'd 2/8 times and folded to flop Cbets 5/10 times.
CO: $11.23
Hero (BTN): $10.79

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A K
1 fold, MP calls $0.10, 1 fold, Hero raises to $0.50, 2 folds, MP calls $0.40

Flop: ($1.15) 6 A 5 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $0.80, MP calls $0.80

Turn: ($2.75) 4 (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets $1.85, MP calls $1.85

River: ($6.45) J
MP bets $4.69 all in, Hero calls $4.69

Highlight below for result...

Guy shows Js4s!


I just said, "nh man"

need to post results mayne

erm... highlight the last 6 lines?!

ah my bad sorry my monitor cant handle that color very well and i didn't see it!!!!

Yeah that hand is my typical problem. But I'll figure it out. Thanks for the insight Frank.

Well nearly 3000 hands is and things are going ok I think. Still plenty of idiots but perhaps a few more solid players dotted about than I am used to. Thankfully however they are no more difficult to avoid than they are at 5NL

So far I think the toughest part of playing 10NL is withstanding the beats. It feels like REAL money (in comparison) and will perhaps take so time to build up the confidence to throw those chips about in the right spots like I know I should!

Losing 2-3 stacks in a row does sting.

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Very nice.

The only way to get used to the swings and stop thinking about the monetary value of your chips is to keep on playing. Sooner or later 10nl will start to feel like it's normal, and if you ever decide to play lower, it will feel like play money.

It is a big leap in terms of money frmo 5nl to 10nl if you're full stacked.

Still though you look like a promising good player, keep up the good work!

Goodluck!

Agreed. I started an $2NL and have just started at $10NL. I remember being blinded by how much bigger the pot sizes were at $5NL and am now thinking the same at $10NL. Just need to focus on the game and as DF says not play with scared money. My second hand at $10NL I lost my full stack with AA against Q4 - AI in preflop. In many ways it reasureed me there are plenty of fish still swimming around!!

lol yes there are indeed. There was one guy I played about 200 hands with. He was running 60/4 and always folded to a Cbet unless he has any peice of the flop. If he did he just wouldn't let go! I told him that I loved him.

It was frustrating as everyone at the table was stacking him apart from me, I just never got the cards at the right time.

He eventually left, I did a search and he was at a 25NL table with 2 others!

I just saw $$$ signs as 90% of players games fall aprt when the table gets short. I have played quite a bit of HU so I sat down but within 3-4 hands the table was full and I became aware that it I was sat at a FR table!

Meh, I think I lost like 35c

Doesn't chasing the fish to higher limits go against your BR management?

Of course.

I was recounting what I did, not what I should have done.

Unfortunately for my BR I am human being!

Gotta say though, this guy was probably the worst player I have ever seen at stars. I feel I have and enormous edge over a random guy when the table gets short. I am not surprized I sucummed.

Reckon I'd happily sit at a 6max table all day with just this guy and two 25NL randoms... perhaps with a $300 BR mind

Yeah I get what you're saying - how sick would you be though if you got that premium hand you were waiting for and he sucked out on you and stacked you? Is it worth it? Plenty more fish in the sea (ahem)

True, it all comes down to your level of comfort. I've read some cracking material on variance, standard deviation and comfort levels. If you are mathematically minded (I am less so) to pick through it you can choose a risk of ruin % and pair it up with your playing style to devise an individual BR management plan specifically suited to you. Links are on my old PC but its good stuff if you do some searches.

The whole 5% thing only applies to one specific playing style and level of comfort but its a good all-round number to shoot for... I guess

Tell me, how much would you gamble right now and ONLY ONCE with a pair of aces vs another pair all in pre-flop? $100, 200... more?

I'd only ever gamble what I had sitting at the table right at that moment...it's not a scenario that will ever present itself to me in any other form.

It's a theoretical question that you are allowed to answer. Maybe think of it as someone saying, I have a 5 sided dice 1-5 and if it comes up 1 you lose, any other number and you double your money. What you be willing to risk in this situation?

Personally I'd take the £50 in my wallet, go to the cash machine and withdraw the £80 in there and snap his hand off.

Everyone has a different tolerance.

I get what it is. It's not possible to answer becuae you are not actually in that situation and everyonce can hypothesise...and even in answering what does it prove? You say you would put all the cash availiable to you on it....fine. So would most people, so would I. Question answered. What has it proved in relevence to the point about strict bankroll managment?

I wasn't expecting an answer, this wasn't a test. I was just rambling away and wanted you to give the question some thought.

If you think it, a poker BR for most people isn't going to be all the money they have, or could have available to them to play poker. I could go to the bank for instance and drop a couple k into my PS account without it impacting on me to badly (well not in the immediate term). Perhaps I could just about beat 25NL or break even at 50NL and reap the cash bonuses, I don't know.

Perhaps this discussion would be better elsewhere, I thought there might be a standard deviation thread somewhere.

Just a review of some trouble hands from earlier if anyone cares!
Be good to get some feedback or perhaps someone who is trying to find their feet at 2-5NL could learn something?
Well anyway:

watch?v=fgHaESEfYg8

Video is public but youtube isnt playing ball! Go to youtube and ADD the following to the web address bar:

watch?v=fgHaESEfYg8

Yeah, i see what you're saying - I wasn't trying to be difficult. My point is that if we're gonna have a BR and practice BRM management we need to be disciplined. If I thought I'd be dealt aces every hand then I'd withdraw all the money I had and play at the highest limits. But that ain't gonna happen so we just play with our bankrolls and within the limits we set ourselves.

I think I was trying to get across the idea that what consitutes "proper BRM" for one player with one style of play and one degree of emotional tolerance and confidence in his game could and probably is entirely unsuitable for another.

A FR multitabling nit making a small but steady profit playing a low variance style is going to need a completely different BRM plan to a higher stakes LAG playing 4 tables riding the 6-max rollercoaster. You also need to take in to account there experience and ability to rationalise variance.

If they both blindly follow this 5% rule the FR guy will probably be wasting time when he could be playing higher and the LAG's stress levels could become a major health concern!

About 2000 hands ago I found myself playing 10NL 6-max with an approx $150 BR and a horrific string of beats. It was testing but I felt I had been playing pretty well considering and trusted that the numbers would even out in the end. Of course the decision to stick with it payed off on this occasion, plus I was reasured by the knowledge that even had I gone broke, 10NL is where I should be and reloading wouldn't have been beyond my means.