4 Bet shove ranges vs 3bet ranges??

I tried playing Pokerstove to figure this out but couldn't get the hang of it,so I did this manually. Please let me know if I am close or way off base. I converted an Excel spreadsheet to a .pdf as I do not know if I can paste a table here and could not upload the .xls

Note: I made an error in the 1st attachment. If you expect a villain's 3bet range is AA KK AK then KK should be a 4bet shove as you are 3 times more likely to face AK than AA in that distribution and thus you are ahead of that range.

Attached Images

3-4bet.pdf (68.2 KB, 24 views)

when u have AA or KK, u should keep raising until the chips are in, imo.

You sure? Show your math.

AK = 1.21%
AA = 0.45%

ya that's obviously, i didn't even notice that.

you need to brush up on combinatorics.

AKs fares better vs. a range of QQ+, AKs, AKo than QQ.

DUCY?

I see no math shown with this post.

Ok there are 12 combos for all pairs, right? 4 Aces * 3 Remaining Aces

And since we HOLD KK,the AK combos are 4 Aces * 2 Remaining Kings or 8 combos.

So if AK/KK+ really is his range we'll see AA 12 out of 21 times (the other KK adds 1 combo), or 57% of the time.

Make sense?

Yes, I was only thinking of the probability of being dealt the hole cards and not the reduced probability of your opponent having certain hands or even the outs once the three streets were dealt.

This is why I love this forum, it quickly points out the fallacies in one's thinking. The 57% is startling to me but makes sense because at 2NL/ 5NL I see all-ins between KK & AA pretty regularly (I think it's happened to me 4 times when holding KK). So, if you knew your opponent's 3bet range was KK+/ AK then it seems that folding KK would be a reasonable option? Is there another line here? If you are going to be against AA more than 50% of the time then can you profitably flat a 3bet with KK? This makes sense if you were set-mining because the other option is what? Shove on a flop w/o an Ace or check-raise hoping your opp would either fold unimproved AK or call?

Has anyone ever made another OP regarding this subject on Cardschat that I can find and read? It seems that having a 4bet/ shove range vs 3bet ranges memorized would be very handy for a novice player when deciding how to react to these situations. Personally I sometimes feel lost when forced to make difficult decisions with only a short time frame to do so.

Right, but that probability changes because of our cards.

I've seen one around here, it's in a C9 post somewhere.

Ak is more likely to be the hand than AA. for some reason Ak is a favorite hand to some players.

You're still thinking about this all wrong. Do we need to be better than 50% for the shove to be +Ev? How does stack size matter? How much money is in the pot? Lots more to consider.

Time to get some Poker books. My thinking is pretty shallow right now.

http://www.qtippoker.com/ for a great beginning book on poker math.

Am I reading this correctly? Are you saying a pocket pair has 12 combos? Or did you mean the combos of AA and KK combined? Because pocket pairs only have 6 combos. To confirm you can check PokerStove of course.

Move Beyond the Hand Chart: 3-bets & 4-bets preflop in No Limit Hold'em Cash Games while your there read the other articles in the golden archives.

Thanks, good stuff. Maybe going forward I'll check for previous threads on a topic that I am looking for help with before making another OP on same.

It's actually 12 combos. Stove shows AsAd the same as AdAs, so it would be double what Stove shows. Oddly though Stove list all permutations of hands like AKo

AdAs and AsAd should be considered the same hand. Here's a link to help explain: http://www.flopturnriver.com/pokerfo...tc-161721.html

Also, I've included a screen shot from a tool to show that if we have KK and villain has KK+/AK then villain will have 1.27% of starting hands. Of this 1.27%, he'll have AA 0.51/1.27 % of the time which means he has it less than % of the time in your previous post.

http://img827.imageshack.us/img827/5056/kkexample.png

*Please ignore the other numbers/actions I was just trying to show the %'s.

I'm obviously not good enough at math to show my math but I hope the resources I included help my case. I also come in peace! Just got confused and want to make sure who's right for the future.

Yeah, you're absolutely correct. I have no idea where my brain got this idea that I needed to count the same hand twice. Might have to take my own advice and reread QTips book. Nice catch and thanks for pointing it out. I hope my flawed math didn't infect anyone else and I hope they read far enough down to see your posts.

Nice to have you here and please stick around and post more.

I suck but will most likely try to stay here. Appreciate the nice words. Honestly, the QTip book looks really good for a player like me. Would you highly recommend it for a not-so great math guy?

It starts very basically but gives you everything you need for a solid mathematical foundation. I wrote a review here: Book Review: Poker Math That Matters

three hands should be 4 betted imo... AA AK and KK. Queens aren't because you can be up against AK and then its like a coin flip. my 3 bet range is ace/facecard. King face, or pocket 8s and above.

you realize this makes you really easy to play against

In a tournament with blind increase, but in a full ring cash game he does not need to engage you to make money. And if he does, hell be stronger.

What? In a cash game, if you only 4-bet KK+ and AK people can 3-bet you super wide... How is that not exploitable?

I would say because he could flat a 3bet with a wider range than what he's 4betting so he's not necessarily pegged to those 3 hands.

So, you flat with QQ and you flop an overpair. You bet out and your opponent (with stats 18/12 Afq 67) re-raises you. What do you then?

If you fold you probably invested 3bb on the original bet, then called 10 more to flat and then 10 more to bet out so if you started with 100bb you've invested 1/4 of your stack and you folded without knowing if you were behind or just bluffed out of a pot.

See this thread for a discussion: Effective Stack Sizes needed to set mine in 3bet pots

Everything is so dependent on a number of things. But in general if people catch on that you fold everything except for AK/KK+ then yes you'll either have to start flatting some hands or 4bet bluffing.

What hands you start flatting/4bet bluffing will vary against each opponent.

Also, keep this in mind because now we know who to start 3bet bluffing a lot hint hint.

fx - in your example, why would we ever lead out? But, in most cases it's best to c/f.

Figuring out when to 4bet/get it in with certain hands is a math problem and depends on what villain will get it in with/if he's bluffing/stack size/etc.

If you 3bet and then check you might as well throw your hand away unless you have a set or AA on a dry board.

The best way to not be exploited by villains who 3bet light is not to flat bets, it is to tighten up. This serves two purposes, one, you will play less hands OOP and two you will be able to 4bet more. If you villain is 3betting light (you need a decent sample) then you can 4bet shove QQ if their 3bet pct is roughly 5% or higher. So if you opening range from EP is TT+ AQs+ AKo and you knew your opp was 3betting at 5% or more you would fold TT JJ AKo AQs which is 56% of your hands and shove with AA KK QQ AKs which is 44% of your hands. That should slow them down. Now let's say you know your opponent is 3betting at 6%, something like 99+ ATs+ AQo+ KQs then you could profitably shove AKo & JJ also.

if you wish to run these equity calculations download Pokerstove, it's free!

flatting 3-bets is very -EV, generally speaking.

Leading out only results in better calling and worse folding. We want to keep in bluffs.

I don't usually flat any 3bets OOP I was talking about IP.

I never ever 4bet shove 100bb deep. And depending what you can shove depends on his calling range etc.

What types of calling ranges are you referring to? Or are you assuming they 3bet/call shove always? Yes I have pokerstove but you need to do some math to figure out this stuff.

I don't know if there is a fold to 4bet stat in PT. At 2NL it is pretty common for villains to not fold once they 3bet. First because default 3bet range at 2nl is 3%< (pretty much AA/ KK/ AK) and those 3betting wide rarely fold to a 4bet and will often call off stacks with 77+ AJo+, etc.

Are you saying you 4bet smaller? If you open pot, get 3bet pot and then 4bet pot that's 35bb. Do you always get it in after regardless of flop?
Otherwise if you 4bet KK and opp flats and an A hits the flop what do you then? Fold to a shove with 1/3 of your stack in the pot?

While true that they may fold the bottom of their 3betting range and call off a 4bet shove with the top of their range I strongly advocate not 4betting light/ 4bet bluff ever at microstakes. Without history I'm 4betting AA/ KK. With a strong sample I'll shove QQ at 3bet 5%+. I haven't shoved JJ in 20k hands.

Alright yeah we're playing in different games then. In a little bit higher stakes than yours you'll see some 3bet and 4bet bluffing which changes a lot of things. I 4bet to like 27bb at most in my games 100bb deep vs one player but you don't really need to know why yet. And then no one really calls 4bets, they either fold or push allin.

As for your last paragraph where's your math if you don't mind? The "5%" stat works for only certain situations.

AA .45%
KK .45%
QQ .45%
JJ .45%
TT .45%
AK 1.21%
AQ 1.21%
4.67%

QQ has 55% equity against that range. Now if you add AJs KQs QQ (TT+ AJs+ AQo+ KQs = 5.27% of possible starting hands) you gain another point in equity. For each lower pocket pair or Ace or suited K equity keeps going up.