Originally Posted by gsxr5221
10NL FR game
BB 2.37 43/18
Button 10.27 18/10
Hero is dealt AQo folded to and open raised for 3x. Button and BB call
Qs 4d 10s. (.95)
BB leads out for .95 with 1.12 left.
Now would you Flat call here in position or re raise to isolate the BB and get the button out of the hand..(we can assume that the BB is committed to the pot at this time and is most likely shipping any turn card that hits if you flat here)
Aside from the obvious why did you not buy in full...
Isolate the BB Fish. What can the Button likely have here that would have you beat? QQ+, which would have most certainly raised preflop, TT and 44 are possible for the flat call, but that's very narrow. QT/Q4 would have you beat now, but with an 18/10, he's not calling with those hands. That leaves the draws. 18/10 will unlikely call with a non OE straight draw, so that leaves KJ and J9(and I don't see J9 calling pre). For the flushes...I think he would only be flatting with broadway suited hands pre, so we're looking at ATs+, KJs+, QJs.
With the range of 18% for VPIP with the JJ+, AKs removed for obvious reasons, you are about a 75% favorite against that 18% range(also keep in mind that the 18% is made up of a lot of limps, not necessarily calls of raises). Even with the narrowed down range of TT,44,AQs-ATs,KJs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo you are ahead 68% of the time.