10NL-AA pair against a strong line, river decision

Villain was 25/17(73). I was putting him on a Q from the very beginning, and obviously hated the river. Wondering if I should have raised the turn?

Full Tilt Poker $10.00 No Limit Hold'em - 5 players -
The Official Hand History

SB: $14.62
BB: $13.38
UTG: $12.30
CO: $11.35
Hero (BTN): $10.45

Pre Flop: ($0.15) Hero is BTN with A A
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 1 fold, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) 4 Q 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB raises to $0.90, Hero calls $0.50

Turn: ($2.45) K (2 players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero calls $1.10

River: ($4.65) Q (2 players)
BB bets $4.65, Hero ?

Call.

Can't reasonably put him on just the Q. The only Q's that raise the flop are AQ/KQ/QQ and we've got some serious card removal on them and we're getting 2:1 on the call.
There are definately draws and bluffs in his range on the flop.

I personally would have re-raised the flop if I had him pegged on the Q. I wouldn't expect the villain to fold with that board showing. I would also have re-raised the turn for the same reason. If the hand gets to this point, I agree that the river card is scary. But, as stated, you are getting odds to call.

I agree. The two diamonds on the flop give you even more of a reason to repop him.

Same here, reraise flop. His c/r is showing a lot of strength, flatting only gives him control of the pot. Same with calling the turn.
At 10nl I wouldnt be surprised if hes got Q8+

I call and cringe.

I'd 4Bet him on the flop. Ur turn play sucks btw. U probs wanna get it all-in on the turn. He could have Qx or flush draw, which ur ahead. Probs call the river aswell. His bet looks like the nuts or air. Ur playin ur monsters too passive....

Wet,
I am a rookie and I don't understand the abbreviations yet. What dose c/r mean in your second sentence? I am sorry for my ignorance, but I am trying to learn.. thxs

c/r = check/raise.

Don't worry. We all started out sumwhere.

I can see vilian reraising flop with QJ and QT

I dont think he is bluffing

1. he is OOP and certainly knows how to bet preflop. If he were a more bluffy player I think he would 3bet rather than call. Call says small PP or trash suited hand. So thats saying to me that he is calling hoping to hit rather than trying to bluff preflop.#

2. He then C/R bad players always put you on AK or a flush draw on this board and feel they need to reraise. The raise size isnt big I dont think he has AQ/KQ they bet bigger when C/R but also 3bet more often preflop.

3. His bet size is tiny on the turn. This looks to me like the K was a scare card, he is betting it as a block. He dosent want you to make a big bet here because he wants to see a showdown but also feels there is a good chance you might fold to a K. (this probably isnt a good bet on his part because if you have AA you wont fold. If you have KK QQ you wont fold. You might fold JJ and TT etc which he beats.) If you have AQ or KQ you wont fold so his bet here is really only folding out hands he beats

At the same time it gives a pretty nice price for a draw so if he thinks you are on a draw he isnt really charging you and if he thinks you have a made hand he is locking in hands that beat him and folding out hands he beats.

this half pot turn bet just says to me "weak queen"

If he held TPTK or better on the turn after you called the flop reraise he would either bet bigger or check depending on whether he wanted to go for pot control or not. This is a please let me see a cheap SD bet.

4. His river bet size is back up. Now that says to me "ooh I'm ahead again.. I wish Id made that turn bet bigger"

5. could it be a bluff with a missed draw.. well if it were its a really bad place to do it because you really only beat other missed draws. He has the nut missed draw so if the hand gets checked back he probably wins it. After seeing you call a flop raise (a small one) then call a turn bet does he really think you fold a Q or a K? Maybe he does and he is bluffing but its just such a bad spot to do it that you have to think this is a value bet.

So where did it all go wrong?

preflop is OK

Flop call is fine. If he were much more agressive then I would reraise him back expecting him to shove anything he deemed good enough to CR.

Turn his small bet here says to me he is exiting the hand. If he bets the river we expect it to be in the same region as he bets the turn so I would reraise him here. I think he has a hand and I think he may see it as you trying to rep the king just as he is and so if he has the weak queen he probably makes a call here. I raise a little over a min raise here.

River.. well with the bigger turn bet the river is easier to play ... if he pots the river it basically becomes a shove. He dosent shove that river without a queen or a full house. You have an easier fold because 10NL players dont bluff shove all that much.

I think you lost value on the turn.

Had he checked the river I would bet 1/3 pot looking for a call from a weak queen. If he check shoved I would probably fold .. there arent many 10NL players aggressive enough to do this as a bluff.

maybe he got lucky and hit his set on the flop.. 666 maybe? Either way hes not bluffing, fold.. get to the next hand.

Its possible, but with 2 flush draws I would expect a set to raise bigger on the turn.

Stu, I agree but I choose to be blinded by the fact that we have an overpair with 2:1 odds on a call that will be the final action in the hand, when we're against a fish.

The turn/river sizing is really compelling for the Q, but whatever he has, he is a fish, and I just generally trust spewy fish to do spazzy stuff a lot, that there are only two Q's in the deck helps us here because if he's got a ratio of spazzy-stuff:nuts, we've got card removal on the nuts.

If we had to make the same decision being offered even money, fold. 2:1, I'll trust a fish to do what fish do.

- I'm basing the assumption that he's a fish on the line he took, others may disagree.

OK quick reality check

Filter in HEM for all hands where you call a river bet after calling a turn bet.

Are you making money or losing money?

Now filter for all hands where you make a river bet. Making money or losing money?

Now ask yourself would you shove this river?

My guess is that you make a ton of money when you bet rivers and lose a ton when you call (in general).

Reason: micro-stakes players call too much.. when you bet they call too thin, when they bet you talk yourself into a call too often.

Am I right? What do your own results show?

Turn: ($2.45) K (2 players)
BB bets $1.10, Hero raises to 5$, here is where i make my move.

or

Flop: ($0.65) 4 Q 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB raises to $0.90, Hero raises to 3$

i would always try to get my money preflop with AA or at least on the flop.

I started going through the hand in the way i usually review hands but I got kinda lost and I'm struggling to define Villains pre-flop range. It all depends on how fishy he is and how he views pre-flop. Overall to me it seems like he either flopped a set or a pair of queens. If he's a fish then it's very likely. If he's semi-good then he's likely to have either air or a strong queen. It's just the weak turn bet doesn't really shout air as that's a super awesome turn to barrel, or a strong queen vs a button range which would value bet better. Again it leads me to fish. I'm going to say he had you beat, whether it's a queen or a flopped set, his fish range seems very strong.

Then as TPK says, he's a fish and he's giving us 2:1 on a river call with an overpair. Lol.

your line clearly shows you felt completely uncomfortable after villain 3bet the flop
You raise from the button and your early position player calls. that tells you what? nothing. you can give him a range of almost all scs, almost all pps, all broadways.
flop comes, pretty dry, some pp combos hit and some Fds are on the board.
you bet, and your opponent reraises. at that point you make a decision, you are either ahead or you are behind and you play the hand.
Everyone knows that you can't stick to your reads blah blah but from this point if you dont make a decision this hand is gonna confuse the shit out of you, and you wont be able to respond. what you did was just bleeding.
4bet the flop or fold, unless you are trying to induce more betting from villain.
be confident,

Its Just a BI

It was hard call , One I moght have made the same way