When to fold aces preflop?

I understand you logic in thinking that someone might get lucky and out draw you in a multi-way pot. Although AA vs. 4 others hands isn't a comfortable situation, but if you can rebuy it's the correct move. Your most likely still a giant pre-flop favorite somewhere around 46% chance of winning hand vs. others totaling 54%. The field collectivley might beat you, but in a rebuy tournament I sure hope you planned on rebuying if nessasary and I'd feel ok busting out and rebuying with AA loosing to some lucky hand because the benefit by X4 if I win is worth it. In the long run AA will win more often vs. 4 other random hands.

Oh, that's easy. With an active rebuy option there is no question - they always get played to the river if I can manage to get the chips in with them.

EDIT: My previous thread.

I thought he was asking about a rebuy. I would personally still call because in the long run AA is going to win a high % of the time. If it's low stacks and it's a big pool of players you need to get chips quick in order to have any chance at winning. If you notice there is always some DONK that has 45,000 in chips after 10 mins. into the tournamet along with a bunch of other big stack players. If you think your going to make it through a huge player pool by playing correct poker your wrong. You HAVE to get lucky when your playing a huge field. I would rather "get lucky" with AA in the early stages than bust out with some DONK playing his inside straight draw to the river vs. my set.

i think thats my problem with a big pool of players i always try to play correct poker and always i mean always get sucked out by some DONK playing a skip card and a draw four.

Always.

always - Definition from the Merriam-Webster Online Dictionary

Always.

folding AA pre-flop?!? I can't even conceptualize that
I understand the situation u posted, but u have to remember that u r dealt AA approx. 1 in 220 hands or something like that. You may not see them again for alot longer than THAT! OK, you don't want to get donked out, fine. Fold em, but then what? wait for another big pock pair? This is poker baby! If ur getting nervous about having ur AA busted in the early stages of a trny, then it doesnt sound like u have too much gamble in you! Theres way more gamble than anything else in poker IMO. More gamble than math, odds, skill, experience, etc...

Even the best pros will tell you that you gotta hang ur balls out there once in awhile, regardless of the odds or the read, or the fear.

U get dealt AA, u gotta see a flop at the very least! whether its pf all in or a smooth call in late position. NO question

gl

If you're playing in a big tournament that is above you're BR, then of course some people would fold aces preflop if there were multiple allins in front of them. I heard a story about someone in the main event on the first day who folded aces. There were 3 allins in front of him, he looked down at two red aces and folded, not wanting to risk going home so early.
So I can understand why some people would fold aces preflop. Either you're playing with scared money or you're in a satellite situation where it would be correct to fold.

But in any other situation, you looking to make the maximum +EV play.

In a $1 tournament or in a tournament that you play in regulalrly, you're not playing above you BR or with scared money. Therefore you would want to make the largest +EV decisions you can. That's how you win long term.
Going allin preflop with aces is +EV. And the more people that go allin with you, the higher a +EV play it is. It may mean higher variance, but it also means higher EV and that's all we care about.

If you are not in a satellite situation or another weird/rare situation (like at a final table where the chip stacks and payout have something to do with it), then folding aces preflop is wrong.
First hand of a $10 tournament you're in the BB. All 8 players in front of you go allin. You insta-call. Don't even think twice, just CALL. It is incorrect to fold and therefore you are losing money if you fold. Its not just my opinion, its a fact.

Please people stop asking and discussing whether or not to fold aces preflop. 99.9% of the time you go allin.

This thread crops up every 3 or 4 months, and gets virtually identical responses each time.

Poker IS gambling. If you are unwilling to take 4/1 odds when you are 6/4 favourite to win, because you are a 4/6 favourite to lose, then you simply will not be a winning player. That is a basic fundamental of poker.

Ok, that's a pretty extreme case, so I'll play along and list the extreme exception to the above:

In a single-table tournament, calling in the above spot would always be wrong. Folding will yield a profit nearly 100% of the time, as it's unlikely that more than two people will survive the frenzy (they would basically all need to play the board and chop).

Since it's the first hand, everyone has the same stack size, and all but one person should be going to the rail. That leaves a chip leader and you (and one other person, if it's a 10 seat STT), so you are nearly 100% guaranteed to cash at the end of this hand if you fold, as opposed to either being the chip leader or out if you call.

While I think this thread has gotten as crazy as it can, I still won't be surprised if someone makes it even more so.

^ I was talking about an MTT.

Btw, does anyone know what would happen if everyone went allin first hand of a sng? Who would get 2nd and 3rd?

This is a wonderful position to be in and I'd take it almost 100% of the time. The only good situation where folding AA PF would be the better choice would if its near the bubble of a satellite.

Take this for example: You're playing in a $100 Sat. MTT. 1000 players and 45 all win a $10K ticket into the WSOP Main Event. Its come down to the last 47 players and you are in 44th place. You're in the BB holding AA. SS UTG shoves all in, followed by large stack UTG+1 that shoves. Its folded to a large stack in LP that calls, followed by chip leader who calls. The SS on the button calls as well. Now its on you and you have AA looking at 5 all ins, 1 which you beat (button), but 4 others who have you covered. So, what do you do?

Since the prize pool is equal for everyone, it doesnt matter if you finish in 45th or 1st because you all get equal prizes. So, to risk your tournament life in this situation here would be almost foolish since winner a big pot does nothing for your win (you dont get a bigger pay out the higher you finish). So, if you call and lose, you're out in 46th place, 1 before the payout. However, if you fold you have a slightly better chance to get that payout because the other 4 players are at risk being knocked out by the chip leader.

If 9 players, all 8 losers would get 1/8th of the 2nd + 3rd place prize. There's no countback to 2nd or 3rd best hand, you either win or you lose.

thats the only position where i would even think about folding aa preflop

Yep. Like I said, its situational and almost all of the time, folding AA preflop would be the wrong choice, but there are some instances (like situation above) where folding is more profitable. I dont think there is such thing as 'never' in poker, its more of 'it depends'.

Everything in this post is referring to non-satellite situations.

If you fold because it's a big tournament and you just don't want to get knocked out, I suggest you save your buy-in and not enter the tournament.

Also, for those of you saying it's better to play solid poker postflop instead of taking big risks preflop, I have this to tell you: You're not that good. How do I know that? Because no one is that good. Doyle/Gus/Phil Ivey/Whatever-Pro-Makes-You-Drool wouldn't ever fold in those situations, and I guarantee you they're better tournament players than you are.

Preflop, aces are the nuts. Don't fold the nuts. You're not good enough to.

This was the 'Poker question of the day' in a Swedish newspaper a while back, and that was exactly the answer from the 'expert'.
Justified to fold Any Hand, if it means you advance in the tournament.
Later stages of an event, and you benefit from the other players taking each other out.
(He aded that it is never justified to fold A's preflop in cash game ... )

I wouldnt call if my tourney life were on the line and it was the first hand (equal chip stacks) and everyone (yes every player) were already allin ahead of me... who wouldnt call? I wouldnt lol...

NEVER? I mean this is the problem with this thread. How can someone say that they would NEVER (as in never ever) fold AA? I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but AA is far from bullet proof and indeed there are circumstances when you should probably fold them.

^^^ Good post.

Agreed, but honestly in the 1 dollar situation I would call. In the 25,000 dollar buyin, I think maybe (just maybe) I would fold. I like to get my money in where I know that I am probably going to get paid off. I am not in the habit of shoving where it is a coin flip and my tourney life rests on the result...

See above...

You dont have the nuts though. In fact you are at best a coin flip if everyone else is already allin. You would risk 25 thousand dollars, in that situation? Why not just fold and outplay all of the rest of the players that didnt take a gamble like this one?

That is just wrong. Poker is about outplaying your opponents, not putting your entire life on the line, in what at best is a situation where you have a slight edge. If you are a 4 to 1 favorite against 1 other hand, what kind of favorite are you against 8 other hands?? I propose to you, that if you are that willing to shove your tourney life on the line, getting a very slight odds favorite, that you probably wouldnt be a winning player. The basic fundamental of poker is to win. It is to win by playing better than your opponent, not by getting all you money (and your tourney life) in when you are a slight favorite.


I am not saying that it isnt correct to shove with AA ever. In fact almost always it is the correct move. BUT the point to the question is that there are cases when you should fold them. To the people that think that poker is a big gamble and that you should get your money in whenever you are a favorite (no matter how slight - 51/49 for instance), well good luck with that. Myself, I will wait until I am a 90/10 favorite before I put my 25,000 buyin on the line.
The point is that it is incorrect to say that you should NEVER fold AA preflop. There are situations where it is +EV to fold them and wait for a better spot. That is assuming that you are better than your opponets and you can outplay them later on through out the tournament. While you wont get the big 8x stack right off, if you are a better player, you will get all of those same chips later on as the tourney progresses. Now if you think that you are not as good as your opponents, and you will need the 8x stack because you will donk all of those chips off and you want to make it ITM at least, then sure go ahead, call the allin and pray to get lucky.

I would fold if I put one of my opponents on Joker Joker.

these fold AA preflop threads never fail to be hilarious.

if you're letting the level of the buyin affect your play from a purely economic perspective, you shouldn't be playing that level of buyin to start with. given the exact same set of players with the exact same set of traits, effective play in a $1 tourney is no different from effective play in a $25k tourney (of course the given is not going to happen in reality, but it proves a point).

this is rather paradoxical as if you're considering folding AA here you're not going to be able to outplay most players simply because your understanding of the game is flawed and/or you're playing with scared money. if 3 players go in in front of you with all equal stacks and you have AA you're probably about 50% to quadruple your stack (too lazy to check with PStove). Your chip EV is basically +whatever your stack is. You simply will not come across better opportunities, no matter how good a player you are.

you don't have a slight edge, in the above example your EV is +your stack. postflop situations like that do not occur anywhere near often enough for you to be able to profitably pass up such an edge.

Legs,

I share your pain, and for me I have found the solution is to not even show up for 10-15 minutes. I have many times folded AA, KK, etc during this time, evidenced by the HH's. I am not sorry that I was not there to play those cards. Like you, early in a tournament the most important thing to me is to avoid pratfalls.

lol at 2 page discussion

This is an absurd thread. If you are ever in a position to fold AA preflop(unless the aforementioned satellite situation) you should not be that tourny/cash game. You are clearly playing above your BR if you are folding AA because a couple people are all in. Of course its EV+ to always call this.

I suppose a situation could arise like Ken mentioned where you might fold to move up a ladder. Lets say 3 left and they both have 100K chips and you have 2K and they are both all in. Other than those Never fold PF in hold em. If you are you dont understand the basics of poker. Its not about luck its about maximizing EV which you always do calling AA PF.

No offense but not really. I can lose a dollar. $25,000 is alot of money no matter how big your bankroll. Not only that, but playing a $1 tourney online, you can rebuy into another in the matter of minutes. People wait all year to get into WSOP or one of the WPT tourneys. Like you say, reality is different, because most people are going to play alot more reckless with a dollar, compared to 25 thousand dollars. If playing scared is not wanting to get knocked out of a 25,000 dollar buyin in the first hand, by folding AA in the face of 8 allins ahead of you, then consider me playing scared. I cant see how that little bit of edge, is worth putting your tourney life on the line. How is it not better to wait until later in the tourney to outplay your opponents and take no risk with your tourney life? (This is in reference to the situation: 25,000 dollar buyin, first hand, everybody is allin, you are BB - or it could be on the bubble in a satellite.) I mean again in reality this situation would never happen, but the point stands, that there are situations where it would be wise to fold AA preflop. I dont think that we can compare a $1 online situation with a once a year event like WSOP. Most people would probably take alot more risks in the dollar situation, but how many would put their WSOP life on the line with the same small edge?

OK wanted to find exact odds of this situation. I think that the point here is that although you have the odds against any one player, you only have a 27% chance overall (of course if these were the hands, but you get the point). That means that yes, you have the odds to beat any one player, but you only have a 1/4 chance to win the hand and not be eliminated (first hand - 25,000 dollar buyin - everyone allin - you have AA in BB).



equity win tie
Hand 0: 10.520% 11.22% 00.46% { 66+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 10.131% 10.81% 00.43% { 77+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 2: 09.493% 10.06% 00.47% { 88+, AJs+, AJo+ }
Hand 3: 09.085% 09.58% 00.51% { 99+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 4: 07.667% 07.97% 00.54% { TT+, AQs+, AQo+ }
Hand 5: 08.466% 08.87% 00.53% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 6: 08.646% 09.07% 00.52% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 7: 08.555% 08.99% 00.51% { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 8: 27.438% 28.41% 02.04% { AA }

Edit: Again I am not advocating laying down AA, in fact 99.999% of the time you shouldnt. I am only saying that it is possible that there are situations where it would be a good move. The above situation and on the bubble in a big satellite, when one of the allins has you covered, both come to mind. No one can say that you NEVER (as in NEVER EVER EVER) should fold AA preflop.

So 70% of the time you get eliminated but 30% of the time you win 9 stacks. Sounds like a good deal to me.

And just a while ago we were talking about folding Kings pre-flop and now its gone to talking about folding aces.


What's next? People telling me to fold my deuce seven just cause Phil Helmuth will outplay me with his deuce six?

lol I hope you arent serious.

Edit: thinking about it, maybe you are, but I am not risking my WSOP appearance on a 25% chance...

Excerpt taken from here.

Well it looks like you are talking about when you are playing above your BR or with scared money. In that case I understand why you would fold. But in any other situation you are looking to make the "correct" play. Folding aces preflop is not correct.

If I was told I had a 25% chance of getting 9x the starting stack at the WSOP I'd take it in a heartbeat. Quite aside from the chance of getting that kind of stack being probably <25% anyway the additional equity of being that far ahead of the field would be huge.

I dont think that it is so much playing out of bankroll, it is that you play the WSOP once a year and you would only be a 25% chance to even survive the hand...

The satellite situation as well are 2 cases where it would be correct to fold AA preflop.

In the first, you will be eliminated 75% of the time, without ever using any poker skill. You could instead fold and play the tourney out, instead of taking the risk. In the second, you can gain nothing (if you are on the bubble with a healthy stack, but 2 bigger stacks have called in front of you), but you can lose everything. If you lose you are out, if you win you get nothing. There indeed are spots where folding AA is the correct move.

I said earlier that there are spots where folding would be correct.

But in any other situation you should call. Yes that means if all 8 players in front of you go allin on the 1st hand of a tournament, You call! Read through this thread again, people have already explained why it is correct to call.

You will be eliminated 75% of the time, even though you do have odds against any one player, you are a 75% dog overall. How is it a correct call again? Simply because you have better odds against any one player? I guess you mean using the pot odds (even though you lose 75% of the time, you win more than 75% of the chips if you get lucky). I guess that I value my tourney life so much that, I would rather wait until another spot, where i have more than a 25% chance to win, before getting allin.

did you just fix my post to something which is the same as what i said but written differently? If so, fair enough

just to add to the arguement

if you get it in with aces and have 25% of winning 8 additional stack, you take it instantly. With that stack size in the WSOP, you only need to play premiums to cash, or can use your big stack to run over any table. If you don't call with the aces, you will probably have to win, say 2 coinflips to cash. That amounts to a 25% chance, but for only 3 additional stacks.

8 stacks > 3 stack, i think