That would depend on the parameters for the Poisson distribution of your tournament experience. If I could extrapolate from my experience at 300 people tournaments at Cake, I would say my lambda would be about 60, so the number of finishes in places 1-10 would be about 10. But the extrapolation is not exact.
In Stars tourneys, mostly within these range of stakes, varying in size from 2-300 to several thousand, I make the final table about 1.75% of the time. From a representative sample of 1,300 tourneys, mas o menos.
if you're vanquish, it's 50%. for everyone else, 2% sounds good for the very high end, with 1% possibly being more realistic. 3,000 players is a very large tournament