The "New Account Conspiracy"?

You've probably heard this from numerous people or perhaps even experienced it yourself. Many claim that nearly every time they create a new real money account on a poker site, they do well starting out. Is this a coincidence? Just a heavily exaggerated idea? Or are there poker sites that are ensuring lucky hands and lucky deals for those first starting out on their site? You know, maybe to give them that taste of winning money so that, if they lose it later, they'll be more anxious to re-deposit. I wouldn't take this too seriously as any sort of "ONLINE POKER IS RIGGED!" accusation. It's merely for speculation and the strange fact that, well, there seems like there might be something to it.

I made my first real money account on PokerStars playing Omaha Hi/Lo. I played this because I heard it was the best to make money at it if you knew what you were doing. Well, I thought I knew what I was doing. In retrospect, I was terrible. But yet, in my first few days playing I made over $100 in ring games! I was already convinced that I was good, so this just helped to retain that confidence... until I lost it all, very quickly.

I made my next real money account on Titan. I played the NL Hold 'Em jackpot SnGs. I was better at Hold 'Em, but I was still very bad. I thought any hand with an ace was great, would overvalue pretty much every non-premium face-card hand, chase draws without odds and etc. Yet, I sucked out plenty, and won 1st place in my first two SnGs at this site. My very first hand, I hit a set of 4s and tripled up. Within days, my lack of ability caught up to me, and I was under what I started with.

My last real money account was made on Absolute Poker, where I still play now. Upon joining, I played a 9 player SnG and guess what? Yes, I won 1st place! I sucked out at least twice and was (somewhat rightly) called a fish. In fact, I placed in the money in 4 of my first 5 SnGs here. Yet, just like at the other sites, once my luck ran out and I wasn't hitting cards like a madman, I was below where I started within days.

I just began thinking about all this, and it's honestly hard to accept that it's just a series of coincidences. In every instance, I was a bad player at the time, and in every instance I started out doing incredibly, unreasonably well. It's just weird. I know luck comes and goes, but what are the odds that I'm just going to happen to start out with an absurd amount of luck with each of three new money accounts I make. Why wasn't there a case where I just had enough luck to break-even early? Or maybe where I started out bad, and THEN got lucky. Or a case where I just didn't get lucky at all.

Ramble, ramble, ramble. Feel free to discuss your opinion on this so-called new account conspiracy and if you've experienced it yourself!

Just beginner's luck

just the opposite for me, to be honest. i tend to do better the longer i play on one site, though i mainly only play on one site, pokerstars.

-n

I found sort of the same thing after I make a withdraw from my favorite sight. I seem to go into a major slump after each time I've done so. Now when I make a withdraw I take it all out and redeposit some afterwards. Later

Yeah, you could also link this with the "as soon as you withdraw your luck turns to crap" theory. I haven't experienced this as much, but feel free to discuss that as well.

This has been up for discussion before, but no matter how you slice and dice it, the logical argument for why this can't be true is this:

1. Pokersites supposedly put a "flag" on players who withdraw some portion of their bankroll from a site, that makes them lose more.
2. The presumed intention for them to do this is to deter them from withdrawing money.
3. The only way a punishment can work as a deterrent is if the punishment is known before the crime.
4. Pokersites vehemently deny putting a "flag" on players who withdraw some portion of their bankroll, meaning that the punishment, if it exists, is secret.
5. This makes it ineffective as a deterrent.
6. This makes it pointless to implement, and the pokersites stand nothing to gain from putting such a flag on players, but they have everything to lose if such a practise became known.

The much shorter logical argument is

1. It just wouldn't make sense.

The reason for why more people seem to go bust after having cashed out is likely just a function of the fact that they're not playing with a (much?) shorter bankroll, and so the risk of going bust has increased a lot.

Most of the 'conspiracies' everyone talks about with regards to online poker are usually (if not always) just psychological things. People like to find things to blame their losses on when things aren't going there way, and online poker is such an easy target, it's no wonder you hear OMG RIGGED 10 times a day.
(obviously not a shot at you, combuboom)

The Lottery - never hit my numbers even though we keep the same ones week after week and therefore cut the odds a little

All the competitions you enter by text, email, letter phone-call never seem successful

Every time you turn on the tv or change channel you hit the adverts, not the end either, but right at the start of a 3-4 min straight run of ads

Now -
The lottery - i had small wins nothing big but a few minimum pay-outs
Comps - small prizes, such as tokens or t-shirts
Tv - Ads are on all the time and becoming more and more widespread so the chances of hitting them are higher.

*I know the Tv ads are a slighty different kettle of fish but - its bugs me

My point being - you do win but not a huge prize, huge prizes are rare enough without the same person winning them all the time.

Think of the amount of people involved in the same prize then think how many are not going to win it - aren't they all going to be disappointed and think they failed in someway or that it is rigged

It seems to be a human mind set that we dont remember small victories but everyday mis-haps or errors are imprinted on us and appear to be the norm

Just a thought

IanT

Okay, there was a post on this site a long time ago that lead to the following article.

http://www.billrini.com/index.php/20...oker-is-rigged

If this isn't proof that online poker is rigged, then I don't know what is.

LOL that's freakin funny man...how sketchy PartyPoker!

I suppose it would be pretty effective though. People can't withdraw if they keep losing.

Ideal situtation for the poker site is that everyone is the same skill level, no-one wins, no-one loses, no-one therefore withdraws, and the rakes keep coming. This could be achieved by putting a flag on the better players.

Agree it's totally ridiculous though and has no basis in fact, as plenty of people win consistently, and it would also drive away their best customers.

Compuboom - I do seem to find that I do better when I try a new game. I tried the $1 PL Omaha Hi-Lo for the first time today (no action on the $0.25 table), and came away 4 hands later $19 up on a $20 buy-in, having flopped a full house on my first hand, and semi-bluffing the next, being called, and finding my opponent was on a draw but I actually had the marginally better hand. Spooky. Went back down to $0.25 later on and lost 3 buy-ins in a row!

For the record though I lost my first $50 buy-in on Party Poker in about 20 minutes.

Well, just to continue to stir the pot, if poker sites were doing this new account think, I doubt they'd make it so that every single new account would start with excellent luck, since that would be far too obvious, but maybe just a very large percentage. I mean, I think it's plausible. It'd be quite difficult to get caught, wouldn't it? The odds could still even out to what they're supposed to be... it's just that instead of the winning hole cards being dealt to person A once out of every 8 times, maybe they're dealt to them once out of every 4.

Just stirring the pot, of course

Since we are lucky to have free poker in my town 7 days a week, I play almost as many live games as I do games online.

From my personal (though admittedly limited since I have only been playing a year) experience, EVERY instance of PROOF that online games are rigged happens in live games, which can't be rigged, too. This included seeing two people with AA at a table, seeing AA KK and QQ at the same table, seeing the same flop twice in a row, getting pocket pairs 5 times in a row, catching what you are chasing on the river 3 or more times in a row, etc etc etc.

So to me, that means that all these instances which "prove" online poker (in general or at any particular site) are rigged are actually just what they are in live games............ odd coincidences............

I think Gizzi hit it right on the head with this. The human mind is trained to recognize patterns by nature. So seeing AA, KK, and QQ sets off a trigger in the mind and people start crying rigged. And lotterys are the same, if exponentially worse. Some of these games, like Mega Millions, are upwards of 176 million to 1 to hit (that number may be off a little, but I think the point will be clear enough). Never in any lottery of this magnitude has the winning # been 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 and megaball 6. If it was, it would be the talk of the free world and everyone would know about it. But guess what folks, I'll bet the numbers 12,14,23,31,33 megaball 9 have never it either (of course, watch this hit now just to prove me wrong, gonna go buy a ticket now). But it is the same chance as any other combination. But you won't ever remember it, unless it happens to you. Anyway, I'm sure y'all get the idea.

And, by the way, for the record, while I do think it is possible (but not at all likely) that some of these pop up, fly by night poker sites could be rigged (such as teamholdempoker or pete's poker). However, any real site (Absolute, RVP, PP, PS, UB, most others), sites governed/regulated by the kahnawake gaming commision, http://www.kahnawake.com/gamingcommission/, are not rigged. And financially, they have no reason to be.

There will always be those that refuse to listen to reason and will continue claiming online poker is rigged, and that's okay. That is their opinion. Just like there will always be the fish that calls a pre-flop raise with 72o out of position. Again this is their decision (which is fine by me).

What limit tables are you playing on at Poker Stars, because I've found that this site is one of the hardest to win on. How do u do it?? Good luck at the tables....

Bee

i have had week long streaks where i could do no wrong (except when i made complete and utter moronic plays) but the cards would hit i call raise with 88 8 will flop but then i have had weeks where i might as well play every hand like a moron hands like kk guy calls raise flop comes 2 6 9 i bet guy goes all in because he hit trip 2's get away from hands like that on a consistent basis it is different if u play against only top quality players u can get a way withit but people online see that flop and they have ace 9 they move all in thinking they have the nuts so its hard to fold the kk

I completely agree with Paulsson and everyone here arguing that such trickeries would simply not make sense. You are vastly overestimating what a poker site needs to do to take our money, and how illegally they should thus be willing to behave. It simply does not make sense.

What really infuriates me after awhile -- and I'm not saying you're guilty of it Combu, though many who make posts such as this are -- is that people throw these kinds of accusations around usually just after they've lost money. I dunno about you, but when I lose a bunch of money online it's usually from clearly random outcomes where I played well or because I played like an idiot. It just bugs me that people are so arrogant as to assume that it couldn't be their fault that they're not profitable lately.

If people would just:

(1) Think through their accusation, and ask themselves "does it really make logical sense for a big successful poker site to do this just to make me lose my cash to other players"? People who withdraw come back, y'know.
(2) Have the humbleness to admit, to themselves, some of the time, that it might either be dumb luck or dumb play that caused their losses, rather than multi-billion-dollar poker sites conspiring to get their $50.

Then I would be a happier man.

Again, Combu, this is not directed at you personally as your post was clearly of an inquisitory and speculative (rather than accusatory and argumentative) manner, but this is generally my reaction to most such posts.