Poker Forum - Register
Play Online Poker Games at US Poker Sites - Get the maximum Full Tilt Poker Referral Code and PokerStars Marketing Code exclusively at Cardschat. Try online poker at Everest Poker or get a special Casino Bonus.
Party Poker Titan Poker PokerStars Bodog Ultimate Bet Pacific Poker
Go Back   Poker Forum > Poker Message Boards > Poker Rooms
Search Today's Posts

Poker Forum
Get the best sign up bonus using Full Tilt Poker Referral Code CARDSCHAT.

READ OUR GUIDE TO THE BEST ONLINE POKER ROOMS AND POKER SITES ON THE INTERNET!

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread
  #1  
11-07-2007, 4:55 PM
onlyPLAY72o
Junior Member
 
Location: nc
Plays at: Full Tilt Poker-BD-PS
Likes: NL Holdem
Posts: 29
Hand percentages

How do you calculate hand percentages?
 

PokerStarsPokerStars is one of the best poker sites on the internet. They accept US players and using PokerStars marketing code CARDSCHAT you get a $75 bonus.

Full Tilt PokerFull Tilt Poker is the poker site the pro's play at. US players are welcome - use Full Tilt Poker referral code CARDSCHAT for a $600 bonus.

  #2  
11-07-2007, 11:38 PM
Chris_TC
CardsChat Regular
 
Likes: NL Holdem
Posts: 359
I guess the more you play the better your "feel" for percentages will get. I'm playing at a site where live percentages are shown whenever there's an all-in situation (like on TV), that helps a lot when it comes to figuring things out.

Here are just a bunch of hand odds that come up all the time:
Overpair vs. Underpair: ~80:20
Pair vs. Two Overcards: ~50:50* **
Pair vs. One Overcard: ~70:30
Pair vs. Two Live Undercards: ~85:15 (can be ~80:20 if the undercards are suited connectors)
Pair vs. One Live Undercard (e.g. QQ vs. QT): ~90:10 (can be as high as ~94:6 for unconnected cards)
High Card vs. Two Lower Live Cards: ~60:40
Dominating Hand vs. Dominated Hand: ~70:30 (can range into 75:25)


*there are situations that really aren't coin flips like many people believe:
TT vs. AKos for example is about a 57% favorite.
**while most of the time the pair is a slight favorite, there are some cases where the pair is the underdog, eg:
TJs vs. 22 is about a 54% favorite.

Generally, keep in mind that if you're behind, you want your hand to be as different from your opponent's hand as possible. You don't want to share suits, identical cards or possible straights with your opponent's hand.

It's true that AA is the best NLHE hand while 72os is the worst. But 72os against AA is "only" a ~11-12% dog.
A7 against AA on the other hand is a 5-6% dog.

The best hand to crack AA therefore is a hand that's suited, connected and doesn't share any possible straights with an ace.
I.e. 89s, 78s or 67s all of which have almost a 23% chance of cracking the rockets.

As far as calculating your post-flop odds go, I think it's pretty common knowledge that your combined odds for turn and river are ~"4x the number of outs" you have.

Also, your odds of hitting a pair on the flop are about 2:1. Hitting two pair is about 50:1. Hitting a set when holding a pocket pair is about 7:1. Flopping a flush with a suited hand is about 120:1.

Oh yeah, and for all the chasers out there: A flush draw with only fifth street to come is only a 20% to win. Don't call a pot-sized bet. Please. Thank you.
  #3  
12-07-2007, 4:05 AM
MrGoodFlop
Junior Member
 
Plays at: Pacific Poke
Likes: holdem
Posts: 36
Sorry this did not come out very well (cut & paste)
Here it is again

Hand Probability Odds
AKs (or any specific suited cards) 0.00302 331 : 1
AA (or any specific pair) 0.00453 220 : 1
AKs, KQs, QJs, or JTs 0.0121 81.9 : 1
AK (or any specific non-pair incl. suited) 0.0121 81.9 : 1
AA, KK, or QQ 0.0136 72.7 : 1
AA, KK, QQ or JJ 0.0181 54.3 : 1
Suited cards, jack or better 0.0181 54.3 : 1
AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT 0.0226 43.2 : 1
Suited cards, 10 or better 0.0302 32.2 : 1
Suited connectors 0.0392 24.5 : 1
Connected cards, 10 or better 0.0483 19.7 : 1
Any 2 cards with rank at least queen 0.0498 19.1 : 1
Any 2 cards with rank at least jack 0.0905 10.1 : 1
Any 2 cards with rank at least 10 0.143 5.98 : 1
Connected cards (cards of consecutive rank) 0.157 5.38 : 1
Any 2 cards with rank at least 9 0.208 3.81 : 1
Not connected nor suited, at least one 2-9 0.534 0.873 : 1
  #4  
12-07-2007, 5:14 PM
aliengenius
Putting 'AG' back in LAG
 
Location: Buffalo NY
Plays at: CC LB games
Likes: pin-ups
Posts: 3,512
I quick % calculation: outs x 4 for the flop, outs x 2 for the turn. So if you have a flush draw on the flop (9 outs) = approxx 36% to hit by the river, and approx. 18% to hit with one card to come.

Keep in mind that calculating your % or odds with two cards to come needs to take into account the bets you will face on the next street. In other words, don't make the mistake of thinking on the flop 'I'm 2:1 to hit my flush, and I am getting better than 2:1 on my money when my opponent bets less than the pot, therefore I should call.'-- you are only 2:1 to hit if you see BOTH cards. These calculations of %s on the flop are really only good for all in situations.

I want to also point out that it is probably worth your time to learn the odds in x:y format instead of %. It makes it easier to do actual analysis in game conditions.

Don't waste your time memorizing things like how likely you are to get a hand that has a card higher than a queen in it. Stuff like that has almost no real application.

Good math/odds books here and here.
  #5  
12-07-2007, 8:11 PM
pastie1
New Member
 
Location: wales
Plays at: full tilt
Likes: holdem
Posts: 6
true

oh how very true lol
Reply
  Poker Forum > Poker Message Boards > Poker Rooms

« Previous GO CHUCK GO!!    Ongoing Cash Games Next »

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes


bodog poker
10% UPFRONT BONUS AT BODOG POKER - ACCEPTS US PLAYERS

All times are GMT +1. The time now is 7:07 PM.

Copyscape
Poker En Ligne Online Poker Poker Online
Best Full tilt poker Referral Code @ Cardschat.com Online Poker Forum.
All original site contents ©Cardschat.com 2004-2008. Reproduction is prohibited.