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#1
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How do you calculate hand percentages?
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#2
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I guess the more you play the better your "feel" for percentages will get. I'm playing at a site where live percentages are shown whenever there's an all-in situation (like on TV), that helps a lot when it comes to figuring things out.
Here are just a bunch of hand odds that come up all the time: Overpair vs. Underpair: ~80:20 Pair vs. Two Overcards: ~50:50* ** Pair vs. One Overcard: ~70:30 Pair vs. Two Live Undercards: ~85:15 (can be ~80:20 if the undercards are suited connectors) Pair vs. One Live Undercard (e.g. QQ vs. QT): ~90:10 (can be as high as ~94:6 for unconnected cards) High Card vs. Two Lower Live Cards: ~60:40 Dominating Hand vs. Dominated Hand: ~70:30 (can range into 75:25) *there are situations that really aren't coin flips like many people believe: TT vs. AKos for example is about a 57% favorite. **while most of the time the pair is a slight favorite, there are some cases where the pair is the underdog, eg: TJs vs. 22 is about a 54% favorite. Generally, keep in mind that if you're behind, you want your hand to be as different from your opponent's hand as possible. You don't want to share suits, identical cards or possible straights with your opponent's hand. It's true that AA is the best NLHE hand while 72os is the worst. But 72os against AA is "only" a ~11-12% dog. A7 against AA on the other hand is a 5-6% dog. The best hand to crack AA therefore is a hand that's suited, connected and doesn't share any possible straights with an ace. I.e. 89s, 78s or 67s all of which have almost a 23% chance of cracking the rockets. As far as calculating your post-flop odds go, I think it's pretty common knowledge that your combined odds for turn and river are ~"4x the number of outs" you have. Also, your odds of hitting a pair on the flop are about 2:1. Hitting two pair is about 50:1. Hitting a set when holding a pocket pair is about 7:1. Flopping a flush with a suited hand is about 120:1. Oh yeah, and for all the chasers out there: A flush draw with only fifth street to come is only a 20% to win. Don't call a pot-sized bet. Please. Thank you. |
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#3
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Sorry this did not come out very well (cut & paste)
Here it is again Hand Probability Odds AKs (or any specific suited cards) 0.00302 331 : 1 AA (or any specific pair) 0.00453 220 : 1 AKs, KQs, QJs, or JTs 0.0121 81.9 : 1 AK (or any specific non-pair incl. suited) 0.0121 81.9 : 1 AA, KK, or QQ 0.0136 72.7 : 1 AA, KK, QQ or JJ 0.0181 54.3 : 1 Suited cards, jack or better 0.0181 54.3 : 1 AA, KK, QQ, JJ, or TT 0.0226 43.2 : 1 Suited cards, 10 or better 0.0302 32.2 : 1 Suited connectors 0.0392 24.5 : 1 Connected cards, 10 or better 0.0483 19.7 : 1 Any 2 cards with rank at least queen 0.0498 19.1 : 1 Any 2 cards with rank at least jack 0.0905 10.1 : 1 Any 2 cards with rank at least 10 0.143 5.98 : 1 Connected cards (cards of consecutive rank) 0.157 5.38 : 1 Any 2 cards with rank at least 9 0.208 3.81 : 1 Not connected nor suited, at least one 2-9 0.534 0.873 : 1 |
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#4
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I quick % calculation: outs x 4 for the flop, outs x 2 for the turn. So if you have a flush draw on the flop (9 outs) = approxx 36% to hit by the river, and approx. 18% to hit with one card to come.
Keep in mind that calculating your % or odds with two cards to come needs to take into account the bets you will face on the next street. In other words, don't make the mistake of thinking on the flop 'I'm 2:1 to hit my flush, and I am getting better than 2:1 on my money when my opponent bets less than the pot, therefore I should call.'-- you are only 2:1 to hit if you see BOTH cards. These calculations of %s on the flop are really only good for all in situations. I want to also point out that it is probably worth your time to learn the odds in x:y format instead of %. It makes it easier to do actual analysis in game conditions. Don't waste your time memorizing things like how likely you are to get a hand that has a card higher than a queen in it. Stuff like that has almost no real application. Good math/odds books here and here. |
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