freeroll odds of winning

Does anyone think that luck is more important than skill in freerolls with over 2000 players?

There are so many bad players who get lucky and wind up with huge stacks of chips that by the time you make it into the top ten percent, they keep drawing out on you and they kill you.

Hi and welcome to Cardschat!

I think luck is a big part in freerolls but skill is still definately needed. Just wait for big starting hands and go from there.

Luck is a major factor in any multi-table tournament, especially ones with a few thousand entrants - Exhibit A: Jamie Gold

Anybody can (and will) enter a freeroll though, so in theory if you've got some skill at the game there should be a bigger gap between your skill level and the majority of players, you should have a bigger edge on them and you should, in theory, cash more often than them

Just play your game. Let the crap card players play however. Don't mess up your game playing like them. I played my game in a FreeRoll and finished 4th out of 5000 players. I got a few lucky suck outs to go along with them getting 5 to 10 times more suckouts on me.

Skill is a part of the sucess in freerolls but for the most part I would say luck is a good 20 to 40 % of it. Not much but it does strongly effect the outcome. In the long run the same people can win them, but there will always be half the feild that just got lucky and not good

Skill and good math skills are half of it. The other 90% is luck.

Poker stars has daily 10,000 person free rolls, I consistantly finish in the top 200. I cannot seem to make the top 27 for the prize which is to another level free roll which pays money. I made 28th once. I see some of the same players there in the top from time to time. I think it takes some skill to get there, I just haven't reached that level. Anyone make it there consistantly I would like the advice as well.

I finish higher in freerolls but getting into the money can still be very tough. Some of those crap shoot players who have managed to emasse a huge stack by shear luck actually start playing some good poker and bully the table making it difficult.

Hi I agree with you all it is part skill and part luck but it really comes down to you and your cards and if you think they are worth betting on, don't worry how others are playing they aren't playing your cards

Luck= first 70% of tourney skill= last 30%
if i play a freeroll that has a set schuedule i usually play marginal hand AK AQ AJ ect in the first hour trying to get lucky and build a big stack then after that play conservative

luck is the key in winning freerolls as many as 2000 players or more cause you cant win any games even if you say your really that good . how can one very good player win if he is unlucky ? how?

Winning on of the top 27 out of 2700 is next to impossible. Buy into a real money tournament if you really want to place. A 2700 tournament should pay 270 places.

Granted, the 10% place in a real money tournament will just pay a little over the entry fee (e.g., $1.78 for 72nd out of 791 in a $1 tournament now playing), but if you consistantly place near 1%, that pays a LOT more (e.g., $18.90 for 8th in the same tournament). Can you afford a buck?

planning to make a deposit at ub in the next couple of weeks. i've just been messing around with the freerolls for something to do. i win money sometimes, but the more people, the harder it is to win. i would definitely need to play a tourney that pays out 10% of finishers, or play sngs. thanks to everyone for the responses.

i also try to make a stack of chips early if i see an opportunity, then start playing my usual game after i take a few allins from people I have seen playing w something like q4 offsuit, or chasing gutshots and top pair even when they have not hit anything on the board.

What do you think about the following strategy? i quit making fat bets and going all in early, as soon as i have tripled up, then play around 40% of the flops, folding most of the time. i tighten up and play better poker the further i get into the tourney, adjusting for competition, sometimes playing only 10 or 20 percent of the flops. i've stopped bluffing almost completely, and don't try to draw out (except for four to a flush or an open ended straight if i can limp or if i have medium or top pair.)
i used to make a lot of money in sngs by bluffing but can't get away with it much in freerolls. unfortunately, about two and half hours into these super-long tourneys, i don't have enough chips. i have to start going all-in again, and get drawn out on, which has pretty much made me give up on freerolls. i'm just waiting for some money to come in so i can deposit it and play against fewer players.

The smartest thing anyone can do in a freeroll, IMO, is to learn how to fold. Patience is the key. It is not hard to outlast the early maniacs.

i got 15th once 33rd 32nd and 30th out of 10000
but thats alot of luck but i dont find them hard after the first hour

I agree with dj11. Patience is the key. You do need luck though. Also AA is not always what it seems!!!!!

u have to be agressive in the firsts levels , most of the the players search for a decent hand to go all in (K7 non suited). so a 98 , J8 , 76 all suited became good hands to call.i already quaed for a week2 at ps playing that way.

Luck, skill and alot of patience. For the first 3 hours, fold fold fold. Play your postition and try not to get trapped with good hands gone bad. I think the large freerolls are good practice to improve your game.

I quote dj11... I usually start playing in large freerolls 30min later the start of the touney. Doing that, You are not so short stack and almost all of the "all-in every hand" guys are gone...

Free rolls can be beaten and skill is definitely more important than luck. A free roll to me is just the same as a regular tourney, except you are playing against worse players (which is good), and the payout is alot worse.
Like DJ said, patience is the key in free rolls. You just need a different strategy for them.

Do not us PS for free rolls, it pathetic. Why play in those 10,000 people tourneys to get into a $1,000 free roll, when you can go to bodog and play $500 and $1,000 free rolls daily?
The best sites are, fulltilt, poker.com, bodog, ladbrokes and wingows.

Poker4Ever also have 2 $300 freerolls and 1 $200 freeroll daily with entrants ranging fom 700 to 1400 and not the 5000+ you see at some other sites

Some good rake point freerolls as well