"On the Bubble"

Here's an article by Phil Gordon about what to do when your "on the bubble":



In most poker tournaments, there is big excitement when the players left in the field reach the "bubble," the point at which the next player eliminated will be the last left out of the money, assuring the rest of the field a payday. Players run around and look at stack sizes, sweat every all-in, and generally hope that someone dies a quick death. When the bubble is burst, it is not at all uncommon for a cheer to sweep through the tournament playing area followed by some truly horrible renditions of "We're in the Money … We're in the money … " Heady stuff, for sure.
I've found that as the bubble approaches, play becomes incredibly tight -- much tighter than the "old days" of 300-400 person tournaments. I believe this change is a direct result of the ever more pervasive super-satellite system. With 80-90 percent of every field earning its entry in through a cheap satellite, players on the bubble see a chance for a very hefty return on their investments: they win a seat on-line for $50, make it past the bubble and get $10,000 or more. For many of the players in the field, you could give them a reasonable stack and pocket Aces before the flop against 7-2 offsuit and they would still fold. For them, going broke and having to answer to the wife is a far worse equity play than getting it all-in with a 93 percent chance to win.

With that in mind, here are some of the adjustments I make to my game when I'm playing near the bubble:

• I play looser. My opponents are playing tight, and the mistake they are making is folding too many hands trying to make it into the money. I am not going to worry about busting out on the bubble. I'm doing my best to win the tournament.
  
• I decrease the amount of my raise before the flop. My standard raise is about three times the big blind. Against bubble tables that are playing very tight, I decrease the amount of my preflop raise, because smaller raises will be just as effective in getting my opponents to fold. Small raises will also be less risky. I like to double the big blind if there are no antes and raise about 2½ times the big blind if there are antes.
  
• I play more pots in position against players that enter the pot for a raise. I am going to call from the button or cutoff seat very often if a middle-position player comes in for a raise. By calling from the button, the blinds will almost automatically fold -- they are looking for a big conflict between the raiser and me, and they are going to get out of the way with everything but the most premium hands.
  After the flop, my opponent will very likely miss the pot or be wary about putting a lot of chips in play out of position.
  
• Regardless of my position, I look for opportunities to raise before the flop when the small blind and the big blind both have average stacks. With average stacks, they can afford to fold before the flop and still remain average. If they have a small stack, they are more likely to gamble and if they have a big stack they have little to lose. The average stacks want more than anything to remain average while the bubble is pierced. My steal attempts against average stacks are far more successful than against players with small or big stacks.
  
• I take advantage not only of my table, but also the surrounding tables. Many times in multi-table fields, you and your opponents will be aware at what is going on at surrounding tables. If I hear "I'm all-in" at a surrounding table, I know that my table will hear it as well and instinctively play tighter as a result. This is a great time to steal, steal, steal.
  
• Against players like me that are trying to take advantage of the bubble, I will very often reraise from superior position if I think they have a substandard hand. Great players know how to take advantage of the bubble, and great players also know how to get away from their hand if their steal attempt faces a reraise.
  
• I avoid the short stacks of 4-6 big blinds (stacks that are 4-6 times the value of the big blind). In reality, I don't really want to break the bubble -- in many cases, the bubble is the most profitable time in the entire tournament. Many times in major tournaments, I've gone from a below-average stack before the bubble to well above average post-bubble. I can remember one major tournament where I was facing a particularly tight, weak field. I raised eight out of 10 hands every round when we reached the bubble and I got called only one time in 45 minutes. Also, I don't want to raise three times the big blind against a guy with six big blinds, have him reraise, be forced to call (getting 3-1 on the money) and then have to expose a hand like 9-5 offsuit. That will make future bubble-stealing very difficult.
  
• If a player with 10-15 big blinds moves all-in before the flop, I do my best to get out of the way with anything but pocket aces or pocket kings. Tight players looking to squeak their way into the money don't go all-in before the flop without a premium hand. Perhaps one of the most extreme examples of this I've witnessed happened with 230 players left in the 2004 WSOP championship event. With five players left on the bubble, the player under the gun had 60 big blinds and was one of the chip leaders at the table (average stack was about 40 big blinds). He moved all-in under the gun, a severe over-bet of the pot. What's amazing is that another guy with 40 big blinds called. When the hands were exposed, the initial raiser showed pocket Aces, the caller A-K suited. Even with 60 big blinds, the initial raiser was scared to play pocket Aces on the bubble.
  
• Facing an initial raise, drawing hands (hands like suited connectors) go way up in value on the bubble when played from position. Against ultra-tight players, connecting with a draw and betting hard at it will result in a bigger "folding equity" than in similar positions earlier in a tournament. Remember that with suited cards, you'll flop a flush draw nearly 11 percent of the time.

I've been the bust-out bubble boy plenty of times in my career by playing aggressively in the spot, but I know, beyond a shadow of a doubt, that my great final table finishes were all fueled by the chips that I was able to steal on the bubble. Don't be afraid to go broke on the bubble -- let your opponents play the scared money. Play courageously and aggressively on the bubble and I know you'll make more final tables and get to the champion's circle much more often.

The Link:

http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/poker...hil&id=2211289

My sentiments exactly.. if you make whatever place after the bubble. Is it really going to change your life dramatically if whatever place you get after the bubble? Talking places after the bubble not 10th and up. The bubble isn't worthy to chase for when placing even per-say the top 10 is much more of a goal then making the bubble. Yes you made your entry fee with a little pocket change because you barely made the bubble(this won't change your life at all) or if you bust out right at the bubble, again you only lost your entry fee. So the most at the bubble is pocket change compared to the higher up places that pay either way more than pocket change or at least 2 quarters and a dime instead of 15 pennies.