any body know the odds to this problem?

Somebody told me noble has a million dollar promotion. All you have to do is win seven sit n gos in a row. 10 people to a table. That would be 70 people. My buddy tells me the odds are 70-1 since there are only 70 people in totality. That can't be right. Can it? I seem to think it is more like 10 to the seventh power. 10x10x10x10x10x10x10. Anybody know what the real answer is? Help.
Later,
spindoct

Assuming everyone is of exact equal ability the probability is 1/(10^7) or 0.1^7, yeah. Tell yer friend he needs to go back to school and learn some basic maths.

P(winning one event) = 0.1
P(winning two consecutive events) = P(winning one event)*P(winning one event) = 0.1^2 = 0.01
etc...

If you have an edge on the other players the odds will increase by quite a lot.

Your friend is mistaken. Yes, there are only 70 people that you have to beat, but its not just one 70-person event. It is 7 separate 10-person events, which makes a big difference. The odds are a LOT harder than they appear.

On a pure probability basis, assuming 10 people of exact same ability had exact same chance, possibility of winning 7 consecutive 10 player SnG's is 10 million to 1. You'll obviously reduce these odds significantly if you are a good player, but still the likelihood of winning 7 straight is very remote, as you would have to avoid numerous bad beat opportunities.

I have wondered what sort of cards you would get if you were on the 7th go. There's been numerous posts as to whether online poker is rigged, and I certainly dont believe it is, but here is a situation where 9 of the people playing would cost Noble $60 or so, whilst the 10th would cost them $1,000,000. Where do the generated cards come from - Noble!?

Ahaha that would be funny, heads up on the 7th SnG, AA vs 93o, all in preflop, what happens next..?

Come to think of it I'd just strike a deal with my heads up opponent if I got that far, but I wouldn't. If it was 7 second places in a row I'd be pretty confident, but I suck heads up.

I pesonaly think by the time youwould get to your 5th win you would be playing against some of noble's pro's. $20,000 bounty on your head would be nice to any pro for an hour and a half worth of work. Now add that to your stats and numbers. I think as realistic as it looks the deck is stacked against you and the odds are astronomical.!!!!!!

hmm personally who cares about the odds of it .. what iw ould do .. is just try to explain to everyone that you are trying to get the 7 games in a row .. and that you are willing to pay them ten extra dollars >on top of their buy in< if they just lose to you .. if you had a phone number like a cell phone you dont use much you could give it to them in good faith and they could call you to see if you were for real .. the odds of this actually succeding are not good but still .. it would be worth a shot .. the chances of that happening are better than the chances of youa ctually winning .. i mean people are fueled by money .. im sure you could convience them with the right amount ..

Ok cardschat folks heres what we do... Ill get an account at noble. We all agree to fill the games that Bill Hollorian and then dump to me. I will then share the money with everyone who gets in the game, and dumps.

I will have a lawyer write up the contract, and set up an escrow account for the funds, in the name of the cardschat consortium. Before we begin everyone will receive and sign the legal documents.

If the entire cardschat community sits ready to pounce on the next sng we should be able to get significant ev in each. With 100 cards chatter agrreing we stand to make 10,000 each.

Well, let me know!

Bill

I'd do it, lmao. For sure. Heh.