Another week of playing with no guts

Well, this week i've been playing tight. I don't buy or see flops with rags unless I'm bb. Turns out u lose if you don't take your chances. Because 10% is skill almost 90% is luck. Make and take ur risk.

The skill luck ratio is no where near 10-90, take calculated risks sure, but if you base your game on luck and risk taking you will only lose eventually

you have to play your cards and sometimes take chances THATS HOW TO WIN TOURNEYS if your on the short stack u have to play about anything thats where the luck comes in, if youve got plenty of chips you can sit back and wait for good cards>>but good cards dont always win<< i would say 60>>40 60% skill and 40% luck>> without luck you cant win everyone needs the luck along with the skill>>.buckster436

Yet being short stacked, just limping in won't get you to far anyway. Constantly calling with the shortstacked. You may get lucky but then again your chipping away at your own stack. That is where you have to pick a spot, go all-in, get lucky and double or even possible triple up.

Luck? Winning or losing 2 out 3 hands is luck. Winning or losing 60 out of 100 is skill or lack of it. There's a good article I found someplace on the web titled "Sklansky Ate My Brain". Look it up. Its a riot. The author states that due to strict adherence to the Sklansky starting hands, he never got any action. Only about 2 out of 10 hands would qualify and because he was recognized as a tight player, everyone would back off. I don't know how much of that applies to online play where nobody pays attention to anything but there own hole cards.

I'm a firm believer of 50/50. Although the table will shift depending on if you are having a little more or less luck. That is where the 50% of your skill comes in. Trying to win when your luck is down!

You just have to go on your instincts.

I was playing in a sit and go yesterday. 10 seat table, 2 of us left. He has 12,000 chips, me 2,000. So he figures " I can call every hand, grab a few lucky flops and get rid of this guy....well it didnt work cos calling every hand cost him nearly all his chips and I busted him within 10 minutes.

The best time to limp in is when you have suited cards or at least one picture.

Also, the closer you are to the right of the button, thats the best time to make a judgement because you can see if the players are folding, calling or raising.

Good luck

90% Luck!!!! LMFAO!!! If you think the game is 90% luck, my guess is you rather be the one flopping a fullhouse with a 2 7 o/s (off of the blinds) than the one sitting there with the 2 7 your hand already in the muck? Let's face it, if you're playing the 2 7 praying for luck, you're not going to be around long enough to see a K 10, let along know how to use it.

It's amazing how the lack of caring can sometimes work. Get me in a tourney where I don't care if I go out or not and I'll take risks ... which are ofttimes rewarded. Some luck is always involved, but careful observation of the people at your table, plus instincts help you to get further. On the other hand, I was in a private tourney last night, played conservatively, blasted away when I had good cards, and took 4th place. If I was more patient at the end, I might have nudged another place or so higher.

play a little looser buy more pots no guts no glory

You have to play your cards and your instincts. I find myself doing much better when I focus on this rather than my bankroll. Whenever I'm concerned with making money - I don't. Ever notice how much better the cards appear to be when you've got a big stack? Even that J-To looks playable - which it is depending on the table and the position. I have won far more pots with connectors or suited cards than I have with pocket pairs. I even get to loose sometimes but it's all part of the game - change up now and again and don't be predictable.

Was playing the .25/.50 limit games at UB about 4 nights in a row and saw the same player at the tables every night. This fella would ONLY play AA or KK and needless to say he always left with less money than he came with...

Dave! your back!

Keep thinking that way Red, you'll do well. (j/k)

In any one session it can be 100% luck, but over time its almost 100% skill. You have got to be joking with the 90% luck sentence. If not, I would love to be at a table full of people with that same mantra. Any decent player that has the ability to tighten and loosen up at will, will kill a table full of card chasers any day. You may river a few times with some crappy cards, but the real poker player is going to spot your "its all luck, so ill play anything" game plan, tighten up, then wait for an opportune moment and bust you out. How do you think anyone wins against the maniacs online in the low-limit games?

Even a single session is rarely going to be 100% luck. To cite only a few examples, there's skill in things like
- getting into pots you're favored to win, even if you ultimately lose because you're out-drawn,
- betting to gain information about your opponents' hands instead of just playing your own,
- betting so you win more chips with your winning hands and lose more with your losing ones,
- gauging when and how often to risk your tournament life,
- getting reads on your opponents so you can do all of the above better.

I agree, the 100% luck short term, and 100% skill long term is basically a quick statement to describe the nature of the game. It never really 100% luck, but it is possible for a far inferior player to beat a great player (a pro even) in a single match, but that same matchup 100 times will heavily favor the experienced player over the donkey.

HUH? OK, I'm baffled there. Doesn't hurt to lose chips on semi-purpose (like to get reads, present that you will bluff, etc), but why would you want to lose more chips on a losing hand? The idea is to look like you could be a loose cannon, not actually be one. How yoyoing from short stack to big stack to short stack is a good strategy I have no idea.

Well said I have done just the same thing and finished in the top 2 many times playing that way early (not careing and willing to take risk) on the other side of the coin, some games I realy needed to not lose and needed a place playing to tight and geting blinded out or short stacked and pushed into taking some big risk. I made it a point to add these two situations up and trying to learn from the both! I think it is one of the most important thing I have learned from online play especialy in multi seat tourneys;. Poker is more about situations than cards 80 percent of the time.

should have said lose less. my sloppy

100 percent skill?? Thats absurd. Luck plays a bigger part than any "skillful" player wants to admit. Lets say you have AA, You make large raise, not to large now, because with your skill you don't want to run everyone off. You get one caller,the flop comes 2JK...he checks you bet large,..he folds. You are lucky he didn't flop a set of Js, or a set of Ks, or KJ...or worse, a set of 2s. Poker is about who makes the least amount of mistakes, plays the hands to the best of thier advantage, odds, outs etc...chip management, bluffing, reading and instinct. But every call, every flop...and every all in, especially pre flop, depends on luck!! You think that Gus hansen calling an all in with KJo, against KQ suited and hitting a J on a cold board to win is because of his skill?? it takes skill to be a good player, but luck plays a huge part in every hand, Iwould conservitively say 50/50.

Yes luck certainly plays a large part but not as much as you suggest. By reading a table correctly you can turn any cards into winners. If we were playing 5 or 7 card showdown I would agree; however, skill makes the difference. Look at Moneymaker, very lucky in 2003 - has been a bust since. Look at Raymer, won last year and finished 13th this year - this is luck vs skill respectively.

I absolutely agree, the moneymaker thing was crap. He should have been gone at least 4 times calling so far behind in hands and rivering. Raymer can read a table, has the online aggression. But he hasn't done anything until now either. They both look lost when playing at a table with the older pros.Good player, but look at the logs, and last years replays. When he hit his flush against Matasau, That was lucky, it hit diamond, but could have been anoter suit just as well. Thats lucky. In every good hand, that good players play, there is always some luck, thats why its gambling, and cards.

I often find myself thinking that the amount of skill you need in Holdem is much smaller than the amount of luck that is required, but when I actually contemplate the accuracy of that assumption, I realize that luck accounts for about 20% of the hands I win. Some people, I'm sure, rely on luck a lot more than that, but they are the type that will always lose in the end. When I find myself doubting that my skills can outmatch somebody's blind luck, I start playing Omaha hi/lo. Give it a try.

I have to disagree with the point made with out guts you won't get very far.

I have made it deep into the money having only played a few hands. Heck I have made it to the final table with maybe only 4-6 hands in a tourney.

I played ultra tight the entire time.

So, you can get somewhere playing with out taking to many risks.

That being said. I don't believe you can get to first without taking chances. You definitely have to risk to come out the winner.

You know I'm getting a kick out of reading these posts. Luck has apart to play with this game. Maybe not as large as some represents but a big part of it. Otherwise why would we have such a big section in the posts of bad beats and all the bitching about losing with AA.

Not saying that you just go out a throw chips hoping you get lucky. But there is luck involved in every hand. As long as at least 2 people are playing cards, there is an element of luck. If you have AA, and see a flop with other people, you are still lucky that they don't catch something better! You are in the best position and the odds are in your favor, but win or lose, luck is involved. If they catch 2 pair, trips, str8 etc...you are unlucky that the cards came out that way, if they have high card up, they are unlucky that you got dealt AA down..etc....Skill can be taken out of the game, look at half the retards that play online. But luck can never be taken out of it, thats why its called gambling.

If there is luck involved in every hand as you suggest, how do you account for the times a more skillful player bluffs someone off of a pot, when they have the best hand? It certainly isn't luck that won him that hand, it was skill.

I have said, that in any short-run, it can certainly be mostly luck. However, over the long-run, many thousands of hands, luck plays a smaller and smaller role. I would much rather be good at poker than lucky. A good player has to rely on luck far less than a poor player. What I mean by that, is that a poor player or one who believes that any 2 cards can win, all they have to do is catch runner runner and get lucky to do so, will much more often put themselves in a situation to catch that runner, runner, than a good player will. A good player will get away from the hands that a luck player will stay in. Skill will always beat out luck in the long run.

I've have never witnessed luck at a poker table in my life. I have seen mathematical longshots spike, but I can always be rest assured that when I get hope I can mathematically calculate the exact odds of an event in any poker game. Now, just because your opponent is not aware that he is drawing to a huge deficit does not make him lucky, it makes him an unaware sheep, I may not get him, but he will go home broke, and he will blame it on the fact that he got so UN-lucky.
You know what I would consider lucky at the poker table? If a beautiful woman (like MicheleW) fell into my lap, with 10 million dollars, and the tax man walked in and said that due to a loophole I get to keep it all, I push the 10 million onto the table with a 7-2 offsuit, get 10 callers, plus side action from people watching, my 7-2 stands up, and I use the money to end all hunger, war and poverty on earth. That would be luck to me.
Until I got home and calculated the exact probability of such an anomolous event, and enjoy the math behind the oddity! (MicheleW, just kidding, obviously, but I felt Id better mention it just in case LOL!)

Bill

Ok...Whatever you guys say. its all skill. If you have AA, and the other guy has 22, and he flops a 2, he is just more skillful you. If you raise with KK and someone calls and nuts a flush with his AQ, He is way more skillful than you. There is an element of luck in every hand. you use skill to play, and put yourself in the right position to win. Anyone that doesn't think luck is involved in any kind of cards, doesn't know what they are talking about. Poker is called...GAMBLING.

??? how does this make any sense
if a guy flops a set it is skill??

are you being sarcastic?

Poker is legal in many places, because it is NOT considered gambling! It is considered a skilled game. When teh deuces flop a set, and I minimize the loss, as opposed to when they hold up, and I maximize my win, it's skill.

A game of imperfect information, does not equate to luck. When a player plays his cards differently than he would if he knew what your cards were, is an edge.
Creating and exploiting edges, is what it is all about.

Bill

OK...right. Poker for money is illegal in all states besides the ones that allow ..GAMBLING. As a poker player, I rely on my skill, but with that said, I have never won a tournament, and no major tournament has been one without someone getting lucky on more than one occasion. I do not disagree that skill will beat out luck in the long run. The better players will usually prevail, but just read the logs from this years WSOP, Cindy V was on her way out after matching a post flop all in with a set of Qs that turned into a Q high flush that turned into a full house, that was beat by a runner runner str8 flush. Thats her bad luck, thats that guys blind ass luck......Just look at any wpt final table, or wsop replay, and you will find all kinds of hands people are "gambling" with, usually not the best starting hand that turns in their favor due to luck! And if Poker is not considered gambling, if you don't live in a state with legalized gaming, and have the proper liscense, try sponsoring a cash tourney and see how far you get. I did, at a Bar I owned, and the state told me that if any cash was awarded, I would be arrested and charged with illegal gambling.

Man, so you think most folks would enjoy a tv show where one guy with AA goes all in , and wins agianst a guy with 22? If they showed all of the hands where the best starting values won in the end? Nope. it's tv dude. It's like the news when the ordinary happens they dont cover that. When AA stands up thats ordinary. Or maybe we could watch the 800 hands that were folded pre flop. That's good tv eh?

Bill

" If it wasn't for luck, I guess I would win every hand " Phil Helmuth, 2004 WSOP. He doesn't win every hand. He has been on considerably more final tables than any of you, and me. But you have never seen luck at a poker table?? How many have you been on...one?? Once again a legititamate point has been argued so many ways, you guys forget what the hell was said in the first place. After my original response, you would think I said you have to be lucky to be a good player, never said that, but good players get lucky, often. Poker is not gambling??...LOL..thats good. Find a poker forum, and you will find dozens of people that think they are Matt Damon in Rounders. Trust me....your not. You might try to take luck out of the game, but unless you stack the deck, or mark the cards, I am confident you can't.

Atta way to make friends and influence people. I will go out on a limb and say that the man you just pseudo-insulted (Bill H.) would be willing to play you live, heads-up, for just about any stakes you could muster. I would chose who I insult a bit more carefully in the future. Nobody claimed to be Matt Damon from Rounders, Bill simply stated that maximizing profit when you have the best of it, and minimizing loss when you don't, is a skill set. One can have pocket Aces and get beat by 7-2 off, that simply means that the next 5 cards he saw after he received his hole-cards didn't improve him, and hit his opponent. The skill portion of that is not losing your shirt when you're faced with that particular situation. Being able to discern what your opponent has and minimize your potential losses. Skill, not luck.

Another valid facet to this discussion is, if it is a luck based outcome, why do you bother to figure pot odds and other such nonsense? Surely that is of no use to a player if luck is as big a part of the game as some of you make it out to be. Poker thorem states that when you play your cards exactly as you would if you could see the other player's cards, you will have positive results. When your opponent fails at this task, he does not share in those positive results. Mastering (if there is such a thing) that is where a players skill is measured.