Bad Bets
In limit hold ‘em, the biggest mistakes are almost always made on the river. While river play is far from an easy thing to teach - since so much of it relies on reads and perception of the situation - there are a couple of basic things that can at least be avoided. The one I want to address specifically today is the worse-than-worthless river bet, the bet with a decent hand that will actually cost you money in the long run.
Let me kick off with an example of what I’m talking about:
It’s folded to you, and you have AKs in middle position. You raise. The button cold-calls, and the big blind calls. The flop comes 8-J-8, one in your suit.
Big blind checks to you, and you bet. There’s a very good chance you still have the best hand, and you don’t want to give a hand like 7-6 a free card. Betting is good. The button folds, and the big blind calls. You know from earlier hands that this particular guy likes to call with all sorts of junk on the flop, hoping to hit something, so him calling doesn’t mean that he has something.
The turn is a Q. He checks. Here, you could probably bet, but checking isn’t a bad option either. It’s true that you could be giving an inside straight draw a free card, but you could also be betting with the worst hand. With your inside straight draw, you don’t want to be checkraised by trip eights and forced to fold. The decision could be argued, but you check. The river shows a second queen, for a total board of
8-J-8-Q-Q.
Now, the small blind bets. Did that queen help him? It’s possible. Maybe he has an eight and was hoping to checkraise the turn. But being offered 5:1 on your money, you call with your two pair, ace kicker. He shows A-7, and you split the pot.
So many people bet ace-high in this situation that it’s borderline frightening. If you were the small blind, you should check. Betting is awful, since the only realistic worse hand that will call you will at best be splitting the pot with you. Now, there are calling stations, but hoping that your opponent will call a bet here with K-high is a bit optimistic. You’re risking being checkraised or called by a hand like 9-9, or KJ or any other combination that may beat you. Do you really think that you’ll be called by a worse hand more than 50% of the time?
You have two pair, top kicker. Yes, there’s a very good chance that you have the best hand right now, but the chance that you have the best hand if he calls is pretty small. It’s true, you’ll split the pot a lot of the time. But when you do, you’ll have gained nothing. And don’t kid yourself, he’s not folding A-5 at this point, so that’s not a plus for you either.
Other examples of bad bets include betting a set of aces on the river into the field on a monochrome board (you’re playing the board, so you have a flush, so does anyone who calls you). No one folds at this time and you can’t beat anyone that calls, but you will get called - or even raised - by hands that beat you. Of course, there are a few, rare, people who are completely unaware of what is going on and could actually fold on this river because they’re watching TV and didn’t hit their straight or whatever they were drawing to. But I’m not sure that’s common enough.
Although it’s not unheard of. Writing this, I just remembered a hand I played a few months ago, at a full ring limit table. I had A-T, I believe, and although I’m not entirely sure how the betting sequences were, the basic idea was that we somehow found ourselves at the river with a board of
K-K-K-K-A
and five players in the (fairly big) pot. I bet, and two of my opponents fold. The other two players were pretty happy about splitting the pot three-way instead of five-way, so that worked out nicely for us. One player who folded preflop shared the insightful comment “wtf?” when the two players folded, and I agreed with him.
Miracles do happen.
Just don’t count on it when you’re betting the river with a hand that has little-to-no chance of winning when it’s called.