June 27, 2006

The Profitable Calling Station

Fredrik Paulsson @ 3:46 am - Filed under Poker General, Poker Strategy.

So while I’m playing mostly no-limit now, I still have some things to share regarding limit hold ‘em play that some of you might find useful. I think about these things especially now that I identify situations where no-limit and limit play differ a lot. I know that a lot of people play no-limit these days, and many of you never really played limit at all. Here’s a situation where the two games differ wildly:

Sometimes in limit hold ‘em, just calling down shows the largest profit.

This applies when you’re out of position with a mediocre hand that may be the best, and your (aggressive) opponent is betting with a hand that you either crush or has you dominated. It can apply in other situations as well, but this is the easiest place to start, and the discussion around it will hopefully also give you some other valuable insights into how to think about limit poker.

The idea is that your hand is decent, but only somewhat likely to be the best. If someone has you beat, he won’t fold, and if you’re ahead, you’re not likely to win a big pot because your hand is “obvious.” The archetypal example is having a top-pair-weak-kicker hand on an unraised multiway flop and being first to act. Betting is correct if you think your hand is vulnerable, e.g. giving a free card is likely to give someone a better hand or a strong draw. But if a free card is unlikely to improve anyone’s hand beyond yours, and bets will mostly be called by hands that already beat you, then checking may be correct. Let’s look at an example:

You hold A-2 in the small blind. A middle position player and the button limp, and you complete. The big blind checks. The flop comes

A-3-3 rainbow

If you bet, you are unlikely to get calls from hands that do not include an ace or a 3. Conversely, anyone with an ace won’t fold, and anyone who flopped trips definitely won’t fold. If someone else has an ace as well, he’s bound to have a stronger kicker than you. You’re either “way ahead” (everyone else is drawing to only a few outs) or “way behind” (YOU are drawing to only a few outs, specifically the sixes or another ace depending on what your opponent has). This is shorthand referred to as a “WA/WB” situation.

Leading this flop allows your opponents to play perfectly against you: They will (barring some extreme exceptions) fold any hand that’s weaker, and they will never fold a hand that’s stronger than yours. But what will happen if you check? Someone with a weaker hand, say the button, may bet a hand that’s weaker than yours. Either as a complete bluff, or maybe with a medium pocket pair, e.g. 7-7, who reads the checks as meaning that no one has an ace and that his hand may be good enough.

If you check and everyone else checks to the button who bets, you should call. As I said, he could bet a weaker hand than yours here and you should attempt to get to showdown as cheaply as possible. Regardless of the turn card, check again. If he bets again, call. You don’t want to get into a raising war with him, you just want to see a showdown. Checkraising the flop or the turn isn’t going to accomplish anything! Because one of three cases are almost always true when you do that:

  1. You raise a hand that can beat you, and he will 3-bet, costing you money (unless you think you’re disciplined enough to fold top pair in that situation, but then you’re liable to be bluffed out by weaker hands a lot)
  2. You raise and he folds, in which case all you’ve accomplished is to shut down a bluff attempt that you could have made more money off of, by checking again. If he wants to bluff, let him.
  3. He has a weak ace himself, and will simply call down. You’ve gained nothing.

Note that checking and calling is not “slowplaying.” It could be argued that it’s a form of “smooth calling” but that term is usually reserved for a much stronger hand than what you’re holding. You have, let’s face it, temporarily turned into a calling station. When folding is out of the question and raising doesn’t gain you anything, calling is the only remaining option, and you shouldn’t frown on it too much. In essence, you’re winning the most when you’re ahead, and you’re losing the least when you’re behind.

If the turn or the river brings a card that may conceivably have improved your opponent’s hand to second best, you could consider leading the river (”donking”). If your opponent is bluffing, or betting a medium pocket pair, he’s not likely to bet the river as well. He may try to get you to fold twice (flop and turn) but if you haven’t folded yet, he’s not likely to bet a worse hand than yours again on the river. However, if you donk the river, he MAY call with some of those weaker hands if he has reason to believe you’re bluffing yourself. You may even get a call from K-high some portion of the time. Example:

  • A-2 on an A-3-3 board. Three players check to the button who bets. You call, the other two fold.
  • Turn brings an 8. You check, button bets, you call.
  • River brings a K. You bet.

He may have been betting K-high. If he was, he won’t fold. He may very well have checked behind fearing that you have an ace on the river, as discussed above, however. Also, your risk of being “behind” just decreased drastically. Before, you were behind to any kicker 9-or-better, now you’re only behind to A-3, A-8 and A-K. If you get raised on the river, re-evaluate. Often, you can safely fold (it takes a certain kind of opponent to raise this river with A-5, for instance), but “bet/folding the river” as this is known as, is somewhat exploitable. It’s alright in theory, because you trust that your opponent will only raise hands that have you beat, but it’s also, these days, a well-enough-known tactic that some people raise the river more often as a bluff. Consider yourself warned.

You also have the option of just checking the river and call if he bets. If it’s an aggressive opponent, you could consider doing that. You could also consider doing it if it’s a very passive opponent who wouldn’t have bet earlier streets without at least an ace or a trey in his hand. The river decision, in other words, is read-dependent.

As a sidenote, returning to the flop, if the big blind, second to act, bets after you check and everyone else folds, you should consider calling for one bet. It’s likely that he has a better ace (what else would make him bet from an early position here?) but you have a good chance of chopping this pot with him if a high card or another trey falls on the turn and you’re getting decent odds for it.

Now that I’ve covered the situation where you hold top pair and told you it’s okay to call down, I must warn you not to try this with anything other than a top pair of kings or aces. If you had held Q-8 in the example above, and the flop had come Q-3-3, your situation would have been very different. Your opponents are no longer either way ahead or way behind; there’s a large middle ground where any king or ace is threatening to you. Here, you must bet (or checkraise, if you reason to believe a late-position-opponent will bet) to protect your hand. In this case, your top pair is vulnerable to weaker hands, in the first example it wasn’t at all as much. Calling down with Q-8 in this scenario is definitely not a standard play, unless you have reason to believe your opponent is a complete maniac who will bet (but not call) with anything.

Conversely, checking and calling may not be the best tactic if your opponent can have something that’s worse than what you have, but still playable. If the flop had been A-Q-3 in the first example, betting makes sense. It charges straight draws, if anyone has one, and someone with a queen may well call. Also note that anyone with a queen likely has at least five outs to beat you - again, you’re in a position where a bet may protect your hand. It takes thinking and experience to separate good situations for calling from the bad ones. Continuing with the A-Q-3 flop, sitting with KQ in early position may again be a good time to call down if the button bets. If he has an ace you’re in trouble, if he has something worse you don’t want to shut him down. And here, you’re not worried about overcards like you were in the Q-3-3 example, since no overcard is likely to change the relative value of your hand. Nothing to protect, in other words.

In conclusion, calling down isn’t always the worst play in the book. When you realize that the only hand that will fold if you raise is a weaker hand than your own, and your hand is not vulnerable to draws, consider calling instead. Sometimes you will realize at showdown that you’ve made a mistake (missed a river bet that a weaker hand would have called) but many times you will also find yourself looking up a complete bluff, and many times you will call the river to discover that you were beaten the whole time. Those latter times, only paying off the minimum should make you feel pretty good about yourself.

1 Comment »

  1. […] The Profitable Calling Station Sometimes you gain the most by not betting at all. […]

    Pingback by Blog Strategy Posts » Online Poker Blog — July 1, 2008 @ 7:39 am

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