So I played some NL last night. I fooled around with the $25 buy-in table, mostly because I figured I had to start somewhere and that somewhere seemed like a decent place. I figure I’ll try to win 20 buy-ins and then move up to $50, etc. We’ll see how that goes.

I’ve also decided to document whatever realizations I come to in this blog. Bear in mind that I’m predominantly a limit player - although it’s not like I’ve never sat at a NL table before, I just haven’t done it extensively - so I anticipate that most of my first posts on the topic will be in regards to things I notice that differ between the two types of the game. So what’s my first lesson?

I have fold equity.

A recap for those of you who may not be familiar with the term: Fold equity is the increase in expected value that comes from the possibility that my bet folds a better hand. To be a bit less cryptic, I’ll give this as an example:

I’m playing $.10/$.25 shorthanded NL hold ‘em, I have KQs, and raise to $.75 in middle position. Both blinds call. The flop comes J-9-4 rainbow. Both blinds check to me. This is a common scenario, of course. I have “unimproved overcards” (or “UI overs”), which is common with hands like AK, AQ, KQ etc. I also have a gutshot straight draw. Do I have the best hand right now? Possibly. The board has high enough cards that it’s probably more likely than not that someone hit a pair of jacks or nines, but there’s also a significant portion of the time that we all missed. However, anyone with a naked ace has me beat.

Here is where I can bet and take down the pot right away. In limit, this would very rarely happen; If I’ve raised preflop and get two callers, there are six bets in the pot and betting another small bet on the flop will not be much of an encouragement for anyone to fold. Sure, sometimes everyone folds the flop in limit as well, but in a raised pot that has more than two players in it, everyone folding except the bettor is the exception, not the norm.

So what’s the fold equity? Well, I have a couple of ways to win this pot:

1. I hit my inside straight draw. This is a draw to the nuts, so those are four solid outs.
2. I spike a queen or a king on the turn or river. These outs are far less strong, as someone could have Q9 or KJ or so, which kills half of them.
3. No one has an ace in their hands, and everyone missed the board so I can still win a showdown unimproved.
4. Someone did hit a pair or has an ace, but (incorrectly) fold to my flop bet and I take the pot down.

#4 is my “fold equity”: The expected value that comes from the chance that someone folds the best hand* and gives me the pot.

Betting the flop is a much more powerful tool in NL than it is in limit. I think I will make a lot of money on the flop in this game.

Cheers,
Fredrik

* I’m insufferably anal retentive, so I feel compelled to add this: The chance of making someone fold the best hand doesn’t directly equal my fold equity; there’s an overlay - a decently large overlay - of the equity that I get from folding a pair of pocket sixes, for instance, and the chance that I would have spiked a 10, queen or a king on the turn or river. So if there’s a 50% chance that I make a pair of sixes fold, my fold equity is actually not that large, since I will still win the pot some percentage of the time that he calls. So there.

More on fold equity.