So about two weeks ago, I went on an absolutely sickening rush of cards. I hit my draws often, I picked off bluffs and I folded in the right spots. I could do no wrong, it seemed. Profits soared and I felt extremely confident - not that I didn’t realize that my success wasn’t in part because I got great cards, but I still felt like I made the right decisions again and again. I felt invincible. What’s more, I felt happy in the knowledge that just because I have an upswing now, there’s no statistical reason why I have to get a rebound, because it doesn’t work like that. I can get AA ten times in a row, and I’m no less likely than normal to get it again on the next hand, etc. So even though I realized that my upswing was not likely to last, at least there didn’t have to be some kind of cruel downswing to accompany it.

Think again.

This past week has been the exact opposite. Nothing has gone right. My draws have almost exclusively missed, my sets have been cracked by inside straights, when I try to pick off bluffs, they weren’t bluffing and my big hands haven’t gotten paid off. The irony is that I’ve gotten a truckload of specifically pocket aces, but I’ve still burned through about 30% of my bankroll. This is not a bad beat story, necessarily, but rather a reflection on how, despite how I’d like to think that I’m still playing the same way as I have before, I’m now showing awful results and it’s affecting my confidence.

Results affect confidence. This shouldn’t come as a surprise to anyone, but for some reason it sort of surprised me. I’m now wondering if I’m making mistakes - well, of course I am, I’m no expert, but I’m suspecting that I make many more and worse mistakes than I thought - where before I was convinced I was playing really well. And I’m still playing the same way, I’m still reasoning the same way and I’m still making similar decisions. I thought I was better than to let short term results influence me (Mr. Tilt-Free!), which is why the realization surprised me, but clearly I’m not above such things. I wonder if anyone is.

The upside to this is that it forces me to think critically about my own play, and it makes me want (and do) go back and re-read some books. I worked through the hand quizzes in Small Stakes Hold ‘em, got most of them right and felt pretty good about that. Now I’m re-reading parts of Hold ‘em Poker for Advanced Players and picking up stuff that I haven’t necessarily thought about in awhile. There are many lessons to be learned, and if I believed in karma, I’d like to think that this current downswing was life’s way of telling me not to get too cocky.

Message received, sir.

Sort of on the same topic, MrSticker posted a question on the forums, regarding being results oriented. My responses in that thread were generally about how I don’t like it when people include the results when they post hands for feedback, as it affects the analysis.

In hopes that your luck is better than mine has been lately,

Fredrik