NineLions asked me,

“You’ve mentioned more than once about calling against pot odds because of implied odds in a cash NLHE game when having a strong draw like a nut flush. I wanted too look at it from two perspectives. One, someone with, say AQo who raises preflop, and two, someone calls in position with say, A9s (I wanted to remove the straight possibility if a face card lands). Flop comes Q73, with two cards of the A9s suit so he has the nut flush draw.

Player one has TPTK but a flush draw on the table. What does he bet? Player two has the nut flush draw. He calls any bets in the 1/2 - 1 pot range?

Then assuming both are still playing on the turn, either 1) a blank comes, what does each player do? or 2) the flush completes, what does each player do?”

If I’m understanding you correctly, the situation you’re describing is this:

$1/$2 online NL game. Effective stacks are 100+ BBs. Middle position (”MP”) player holds AQo and opens to $6, and the player on the button (”button”) calls with A-9 of spades. Both blinds fold.

The flop comes Q♠-7♠-3♣, giving MP top pair, top kicker, and gives button the nut flush draw. And now the question is, how would I play this hand if I was either MP or button?

Let’s start off from MP’s perspective. Clearly, I like this flop. I’m not thrilled about being out of position with a hand as dangerous as a single pair, but this flop is still relatively safe for me. I’m confident in having the best hand. What’s my plan, then?

Actually, asking for a plan is getting ahead of myself. First of all, I need to set my priorities straight. Two things to consider:

1. I’m not going to win a huge pot with this hand. It’s very unlikely that I’ll get a typical opponent to stack off with a worse hand than mine. If all the money goes in, I’d expect to be the one taking the worst of it.
2. The pot is still small.

We’ve already covered that I’m out of position, but it’s worth repeating nonetheless. I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again: I’ve never seen an inexperienced player who overvalues position. It’s the number one factor in most NL decisions, and it surely plays in here as well. Now, with that out of the way:

My objective is to get value from hands like KQ, QJ, QT, maybe mid-pairs like 77-JJ, while simultaneously avoid being drawn out on, and avoid paying off a better hand than my own. These are three different objectives and to choose my bet size I have to weigh them somewhat carefully.

The hands that may pay me off a little, as listed above, would probably call a pot sized bet on this flop if they want to play at all. I usually bet the pot when I make a continuation bet, so doing it here doesn’t give away my strength. They’re somewhat more likely to call because they’re in position. Overbetting the flop with a vulnerable hand such as mine, however, doesn’t do me much good because it just reduces the chance of getting called by hands I have dominated.

The only feasible draw available on this flop is a flush draw, otherwise the board is uncoordinated. Although giving a free card to a flush draw is bad, the pot isn’t big yet so there’s little to defend or protect. Nonetheless, there are no arguments against a pot sized bet here.

What if I’m up against a set? I’d want to keep the pot a bit smaller in that case, so I can get away from my hand if I figure to be beaten. But a set is even more unlikely than a flush draw, so I shouldn’t weigh that in too much in making my decision. Also, a pot sized bet here isn’t that much; I’m far from being pot committed.

MP bets $12, with a plan for how to proceed.

What do you think? Is this a good move? Did I miss some important aspect? Leave a comment here, or discuss it in the forums. I’ll continue with how I would play it from here in button’s shoes in the next post, plus revealing MP’s plan.