An interesting situation has come up between me and another regular at Poker Stars 5/10. I’ve played with him on more than a few occasions and although I don’t have a huge sample, it’s at least around 500 hands which is a fair share. By coincidence, I came by a comment he had made about me on another forum (specifically my nickname on Stars) where he said that I was LAG (loose and aggressive) and that I overdo FPS (Fancy Play Syndrome). In a subsequent post, he stated that I’m “not a good player.” My ego was bruised a little from reading this, I must admit, but I’ll take it at face value.

I already know that FPS is a problem I have, so given that he’s on the mark with that, I had to at least consider the fact that he might be right about me being a LAG player as well as “not good.” So I sat down with PokerTracker and started looking at hands I had played specifically against him, and noticed something interesting

1. First of all, that my note on this player strongly suggests betting even the weakest showdown hands on the river, because he “can’t fold.”
2. Secondly, that he never believes me when I raise at any point in the hand. He can’t seem to lay down ace-high on any street vs. me.

The first fact seems to be a direct consequence of the second one. Clearly I should value bet him to death because he never folds (against me). But since he’s an otherwise competent player, how come he chooses to call me down so very light? It doesn’t appear to be a winning strategy; overall in the hands we’ve played together, I’ve won money off of him. So what’s going on there?

My guess is this: At some point, possibly a long time ago, because I have hands vs him recorded also last year, he must have read me as someone who bluffs a lot. This is fairly plausible; I used to bluff a lot. If he caught me on a particularly bluffy streak of bluffing, then that read might have made sense. And if he then made a note on him saying “compulsive bluffer” or something similar and then trusts this read, the ensuing effect will be that he calls me down very light.

And what’s the consequence of that? Well, clearly now I have noticed this, so I’m betting light - but winning - vs him. Which in turn, to him, validates his read and he must keep calling me down light.

I find this very interesting, the domino effect of a read that is a little off the mark. I mean, his read may have been absolutely correct at the time, but I have - at least if my hypothesis holds - since adjusted, and he has not. In his eyes, then, I’m a loose and aggressive player who will bet very weak hands strongly, and in my eyes he will call down with very weak hands so I can profitably play very weak hands aggressively.

Maybe this spell will be broken if he sees this blog post? Heh.

I’ve never adjusted a note I’ve made on a player. I’m now starting to question if this may be a bigger mistake than I thought it was.